Oil Price Crashes -$56; First Time in History Sellers Pay Buyers
Frankly, we’re speechless. Yesterday the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil for near-term May contracts went from trading at $18.27 per barrel (bbl) to minus $37.63, a drop of $55.90 in a single day. This is the first time in history sellers of oil in the U.S. (more properly the contracts to buy oil) are paying buyers to accept it–because the sellers have no place to store physical oil should they keep the contracts. This is a complete and utter meltdown in the oil market. Trading for May contracts ends today, thank God. The June contract is (so far) showing deals trading at $15.59/bbl. That’s still a disaster, but not as bad as paying someone else to take the oil! What caused this price crash, and where does it go from here?
Read More “Oil Price Crashes -$56; First Time in History Sellers Pay Buyers”
“Keep it in the Ground” (KIITG) has been the rallying cry of idiotic, low-brain function environmentalists for the past 3-4 years. They want “fossil fuels” to be kept in the ground, never to be developed. President Trump is mulling over a plan to KIITG–but not in the same way. Advisers to the President are proposing that the federal government pay for oil from American producers now, at historically low prices, but that the producers don’t deliver the oil right now. In fact, don’t drill at all–just keep it in the ground, out of the world market, in an attempt to lower world oil supplies and prop up the price.
We’ve previously brought you various articles, and comments on articles, describing how Marcellus/Utica drillers may benefit from the current crash in global oil prices. How? A number of oil drillers in Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota and other oil states are not only not drilling new wells right now, but they’re also not completing previously drilled wells and in some cases, they are shutting in existing/flowing wells. All of which means there will be a rapid decline in the amount of “associated gas” being produced in those states. Less associated gas means less supply and less supply means higher prices–for M-U drillers. We spotted an article that does a good job at defining how this will likely play out. How much less associated gas can we expect? What does that mean for natgas prices (when will they go higher)? What if the price of oil is $40/barrel rather than $30/barrel?
If you’ve read MDN for any length of time you know we’ve preached the gospel of “lower for longer”–that natural gas prices will remain low, quite low, for a long period of time. How low? Likely in the $2/Mcf range (or just under, or just over). Gone are the days of $3 and $4 gas–at least for a period of years. Although that may have now changed with the double shock of too much oil and the coronavirus destroying demand, which affects natural gas prices. How? Less oil drilling in American shale means less associated gas produced by oil drilling. Less supply equals higher prices. But let’s not go down that rabbit trail right now. We spotted a couple of articles by analysts who predict the current oil price crash will have a profound and long-term effect not only on the oil industry but also on the petrochemical industry–the downstream recipient and user of oil (and gas).
The gloves are off. Today we’re calling out the American Petroleum Institute and the Big Oil supermajors that control the API for their selfishness and shortsightedness. Apparently the supermajors have long wanted American shale and the plethora of smaller independents to just go away–so they (Big Oil) could once again control the world market for oil. The result of that philosophy, whether intentional or not, will be to allow foreign countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia to buy up OUR American shale companies, for themselves (see U.S. in Danger of Losing Our Shale Oil Industry to Other Countries). The API hides under the covering of “don’t interfere in free markets” in advising President Trump to not do anything to help American shale. That’s bunkum.
America is in danger of losing ownership of our shale oil companies to bad actors including Saudi Arabia, Russia and other foreign countries. Those countries are actively, aggressively, purposely waging a price war against us, trying to drive American shale companies into bankruptcy. Why? So they can turn around and buy up our companies and once again control the world market for oil. It is a *hostile* action. President Trump, please don’t let it happen!
Enverus, a leading oil and gas SaaS and data analytics company, has just released its latest FundamentalEdge report called, “
Is your head spinning yet with all the news about the oil price crash and what the U.S. may or may not do to “fix” it? Ours is! Last week President Trump tweeted to the world he had a conversation with his “friend” the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Prince told Trump the Saudis and Russians are close to announcing a major cut in world oil production (see 
Last week we told you about the biggest rig count drop in four years with a loss of 47 rigs in a single week (see 
It’s pretty amazing what a single tweet can do. It can move the price of oil up by $5/barrel! Yesterday President Trump tweeted: “Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!” The markets reacted quickly bidding up the price of oil to $25.32/barrel for WTI. Let’s hope it continues.
Is this an April Fool’s joke? Bloomberg is reporting comments from Damien Courvalin, Head of Energy Research & Senior Commodity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, saying U.S. shale oil drillers will emerge from the current oil price crash as “a winner.” This is the opposite of every other analyst we’ve read. What does Courvalin see that’s different from everyone else?
President Trump had a phone conversation with Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin on Monday. The topic? The Saudi-Russian oil price war, which Trump calls “crazy.” The result of the call was to tee up each country’s top energy officials, getting them to discuss ways to prop up the price of oil. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette will talk with Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak about “ways the world’s largest producers can address volatility in the global oil markets during this unprecedented period of turmoil.”
Why is the Trump Administration not taking decisive action to address the crash in the oil price brought on by the Saudis and Russians? Agreeing to “talk about it” with the Russians, as we outline in another post today, is not action. Neither is buying up some extra barrels of oil for the strategic petroleum reserve. We think David Blackmon, a longtime oil industry worker and observer hits the nail on the head in a new column just published by Forbes. The reason the government isn’t addressing the oil price crash issue right now is…
Everyone, and we mean everyone, is still reeling from the double shock of the COVID-19 coronavirus and its effect on the world economy, and the Saudis and Russians pumping more oil, driving oil prices into the ground. Frankly, the COVID-19 virus is the bigger deal. It will have long-lasting effects for years to come on the U.S. economy, including a big effect on the oil and gas industry. The question is, what kind of effect? Is there any way to predict what may happen in the coming couple of years and longer? No one can really predict, but if anyone could, it would be the bright minds at RBN Energy. They’ve attempted the near-impossible: Try to predict how things will change following the COVID-19 lockdown (around March 6). Try to divine how the oil and gas (and NGL and midstream) worlds will change in the coming months and years. Their assessment is sobering.
The American oil industry is in crisis. This is undeniable. Some folks will point out this isn’t the first serious downturn for the oil industry, and it won’t be the last. True enough. But this one IS different. Not in recent memory (at least a generation) has there been both a shock in the supply picture (Saudis and Russians fully opening up the taps) and a shock in the demand picture (very little travel due to the pandemic). We at MDN have taken a view in favor of a tariff on imported foreign oil to encourage better behavior. Now comes a tweak to the tariff strategy.
MDN Editor Jim Willis had the pleasure of being interviewed on The Crude Life podcast last week. Jason Spiess, an award-winning multimedia journalist, hosts several radio shows in addition to the podcast. The podcast/radio shows focus mainly on the Bakken Shale (where Jason lives and works), but he also branches out to talk with those in other plays. This isn’t Jim’s first time appearing on The Crude Life (see