EIA: Permian Gas Drop Almost Stops While M-U Gas Drops Like a Rock
Yesterday our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR estimates how much oil and natural gas each of the country’s seven largest shale plays produced in the previous (current) month, and how much each will produce in the coming (next) month. The June report, which predicts production for the coming month of July, estimates natural gas production in the Permian basin has just about stabilized (will go down just a little). However, natgas production in the Marcellus/Utica will continue to drop like a rock in the coming month.
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The U.S. onshore rig count continues to collapse, hitting a historic new low of 299. Over the past week, another 12 rigs disappeared from the count, mainly located in oil plays (like the Permian). Since the beginning of March, the Marcellus had (as of last week) lost 11 rigs in total. The Marcellus gained back one of those rigs. Since the beginning of March the Utica has stayed consistent with 10-11 rigs operating. Last week the Utica lost two rigs, now down to 9 rigs operating.
For the past month and a half, MDN has brought you rig count data from Enverus (formerly Drillinginfo) each Friday. Last Friday we reported the count had hit a new modern-day low, but that the Marcellus had gained back one of the seven rigs lost over a previous three week period (see 
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the “lifeblood” of the global energy system is…investment. That is, money. Without investment, new sources of energy don’t appear. In 2016 IEA began to publish an annual report called World Energy Investment, in order to track spending on all forms of energy worldwide. Earlier this week IEA published its fifth annual version of the report. In the report, IEA says 2020, because of the coronavirus pandemic, will mark the largest-ever collapse in global energy investment in history. IEA says the coming investment decline will impact oil the most.
David Blackmon, a senior contributor to the Forbes magazine website and 39-year veteran working for various oil companies including Burlington Resources, Shell, and El Paso Corporation, is one of our favorite experts to read on matters relating to the oil patch. He is a strong O&G supporter. So when we spotted a recent Forbes article Blackmon wrote titled, “Why The Brief Era Of American Energy Dominance Is Over,” that sure got our attention.
For the past month or so MDN has brought you rig count data from Enverus (formerly Drillinginfo) each Friday. Last Friday we reported the count had hit a new modern-day low, and that the Marcellus had lost another couple of rigs, making it a total of seven lost rigs in the Marcellus over a three week period (see 
Yesterday a coalition of twenty-three free market, small business, and consumer groups joined the American Energy Alliance (AEA) in warning President Trump not to slap tariffs on imported crude oil from our enemies (Saudi Arabia and Russia) as a means to help the decimated oil and gas industry. We disagree.
What happens in the oil patch has a direct bearing on the financial health of gas drillers in the Marcellus/Utica, which is why we periodically cover happenings in oil. We’re now beginning to see articles with the theme that the oil price crash is already over. Yesterday West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $32.50/barrel. Still not great, but a lot better than the negative $37.63 we saw a few weeks ago! However, does a higher price for oil automatically mean shale oil drilling will immediately return, and with it more associated gas keeping the price of natgas low?
Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, published a blog post yesterday to outline the differences between the oil markets and natural gas markets and how each market responds to world events vis-à-vis pricing. EIA says crude oil markets respond quickly and often dramatically to world events, but natural gas markets have tended to be driven by regional factors and have been less connected to the international market. Oil markets are from Mars, natgas markets are from Venus.
We’re learning far more about the oil business than we ever thought we would, due to the price crash brought on by the coronavirus and the Saudis and Russians dumping. Yes, oil and gas are an industry that goes together–but natural gas really is a different kind of business overall. Different kind of drilling, different kind of pipelines, different economics. We don’t know about you, but we always thought an oil driller could simply shut-in a well (essentially turn off a valve) and later, when the economics returned, just open the valve again and let the oil flow. Boy were we wrong! Shutting in a well is a major decision with long-term consequences. It’s not just flipping a switch or turning a valve.
Simon-Kucher & Partners, a global strategy and marketing consulting firm along with Rice University surveyed 195 oil and gas industry experts from around the world. They published their findings in a report titled “2020 Oil & Gas Crisis Study.” The upshot, the sentiment, is that the current crisis faced by oil companies is largely homegrown. We did it to ourselves.