M-U Earnings Down 50% from 2022 Due to Low Price of NatGas
It’s been a wild ride for shale energy companies from the beginning of the shale revolution around 20 years ago. Here in the Marcellus/Utica, the very first Marcellus well was sunk by Range Resources in 2004. Until a few years ago, most shale drillers were not profitable, eating through investors’ money like candy. Just before the beginning of the pandemic, shale drillers got the “free cash flow” religion and began to pull back on new drilling in favor of profitability for shareholders. The pandemic, followed by Russia’s war against Ukraine, added new market gyrations. Bottom line: Last year, shale oil and gas drillers saw historic revenues and profitability. This year, the bottom is dropping out once again…
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New shale permits issued for May 15-21 in the Marcellus/Utica took a substantial hit. There were only 12 new permits issued, down by more than half from the 26 new permits issued the previous week. Last week’s tally included 10 new permits for Pennsylvania, 2 new permits for Ohio, and no new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was a tie–Coterra Energy and Chesapeake Energy each received 3 new permits, with Coterra’s permits issued in Susquehanna County, PA, and Chessy’s permits in Bradford County, PA. Range Resources and Olympus Energy each received 2 new permits, and Southwestern Energy and EOG Resources each received 1 new permit.
Investors in shale oil and gas companies suffered for years with little or no returns for the money they invested. Five of eight large Marcellus/Utica drillers saw their share prices decrease by an astonishing 85% or more from 2008 to 2019 (see 
Yesterday Range Resources Corporation issued its first quarter 2023 update and held a conference call with analysts. On the call, retiring (as of May 10th) CEO Jeff Ventura proclaimed Range sits at the best spot it’s been in history. Ventura said, “For the Marcellus, the future is very bright.” Incoming CEO (currently COO) Dennis Degner echoed Ventura’s remarks and pledged to “stay the course” and continue to “block and tackle” in the months and years ahead.
Free cash flow (FCF) refers to a company’s available cash repaid to creditors and as dividends and interest to investors. Companies typically use FCF to buy back shares of stock, pay fatter dividends, or pay off creditors. When the price of natural gas went through the roof last year, natural gas drillers were rolling in the FCF. Now with natgas commodity prices in the basement, FCF money has been wiped off the table. How much? For six large natural gas-focused drillers (five of them focused on the Marcellus/Utica, one on the Haynesville), some $8 billion of FCF is “now off the table” according to an article by Bloomberg.
The sharp analysts at RBN Energy have sifted through the announcements and “guidance” statements from 42 of the country’s major publicly-traded oil and natural gas drillers for 2023. Among them are 11 gas-focused drillers, nine of which have operations in the Marcellus/Utica region. Looking at the list of 11 gas-focused drillers, RBN finds production will be just about the same in 2023 as it was in 2022–projecting a dip of 1% this year. The analysis also finds collectively that the 11 gas-focused drillers will spend around 9% more on drilling this year due to Bidenflation. Spending more to produce the same–not a winning formula for a politician to run on.
The rumor mill kicked into overdrive on Friday when Bloomberg published an article saying Pioneer Natural Resources Co., one the largest independent oil producers in the U.S., is considering (negotiating for) an acquisition of Marcellus driller Range Resources Corp., according to “people familiar with the matter.” Range was the very first company to drill a Marcellus shale well back in 2004 in western Pennsylvania. By the end of Friday, Pioneer issued an abrupt statement saying it “is not contemplating a significant business combination or other acquisition transaction.” It wasn’t an outright denial that such talks are taking place. Range could not be reached for comment.