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The Huge Turnaround & Bright Outlook for M-U Stock Prices
What a difference three years can make! Three years ago, Henry Hub prices were hovering around $2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Stock valuations for Marcellus/Utica drillers were majorly depressed (down 80-90% from previous highs), and gas producers were struggling. Fast forward to today. Balance sheets and earnings statements are through the roof. Most experts believe $4-$5/Mcf gas is sustainable–at least for the next X years. What does the future look like for M-U drillers? What are the risks? And can we keep the current bright outlook going?
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Last week (Dec. 12-18), the number of permits issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica bumped up nicely to 32, up from the prior week’s 20. Both Pennsylvania and Ohio issued 16 new shale permits each. West Virginia got skunked and issued none.
Being a “pure-play” or “single play” (as the Brits call it) shale driller has its advantages. It also, in a changing world, can have its risks, or disadvantages. That is the point made in a new analysis by global research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Wood specializes in doling out advice on oil, gas, LNG, power, renewables, chemicals, and metals & mining. In an excellent article delving into the advantages and disadvantages of being a pure-play driller, Wood makes the following observation: “Five US operators – EQT, Pioneer, Antero, Diamondback and Range – have amassed single-basin positions on a global scale.” Yeah, three of the five are M-U pure-play drillers, and the assets they have “amassed” rival (produce more) than many of the Majors’ non-shale assets. It is a truly amazing feat.
Two days ago, Range Resources issued its third quarter 2022 update, and yesterday the company held a conference call for upper management to brief analysts. By all accounts, Range had a great 3Q. Range produced an average of 2.13 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d), with approximately 70% of it as natural gas and the rest in NGLs. Range only spent $138 million to drill, but cash flow from operations was a staggering $550 million–the highest in company history. The company drilled 7 wells and completed 22 wells during 3Q. Range brought 12 wells online to sales in the southwestern part of PA, and it brought 6 wells online to sales in northeastern PA.
Expectations play a big role in investing. The financial markets do a lot of anticipating and forecasting and guessing about where a company or entire sector is heading. Such is the game being played right now with expectations for Marcellus/Utica shale gas companies and their forthcoming third quarter financial updates. Given the high price of natural gas during 3Q22, analysts expect shale gas companies to be swimming in free cash flow. The natural follow-on question is, what will they do with all of that extra cash?
Drillers (exploration and production companies, or E&Ps) were thrilled with record-high earnings and cash flow in the second quarter of this year. Soaring commodity prices and “strict financial discipline” on the part of oil and gas drillers resulted in pre-tax operating earnings and cash flows surging by 29% and 22%, respectively, from 1Q22. And 1Q22 was up too! So what did drillers, especially drillers in the Marcellus/Utica, do with all that extra cash? Did they pay down debt? Buy back shares of company stock? Issue higher dividends? Something else?