In our weekly tracking of the Enverus rig count, the numbers from the latest report (as of Wednesday) show a new record low of 276 active rigs. Quite disturbing for us is that comparing Wednesday of this week with Wednesday of last week, the Marcellus/Utica rig count is down by a whopping six. Ouch. The rig apocalypse continues.
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For the past few months, MDN has followed the Enverus (Drillinginfo) rig count numbers. In our most recent rig count post from two weeks ago we noted the count had fallen to a historic, new all-time low of 298 (see Onshore Rig Count Hits New Low of 298 – Finds Bottom?). Dan Eberhart, CEO of Canary, LLC (the largest privately-owned oilfield services company in the U.S.) wrote a column on the Forbes website stating his belief the rig count had hit bottom and “the worst appears to be behind us.” Looks like Dan was wrong. The latest Enverus rig count, as of Monday, shows the rig count has slipped another 19 to 279. The apocalypse has arrived.
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Last week S&P Global Platts reported the Enverus (Drillinginfo) rig count for the U.S. had slipped to a new all-time low of 299 (see U.S. Rig Count Goes Below 300 – Marcellus Gains 1, Utica Loses 2). This week for the first time in months, S&P didn’t bother to report on the latest Enverus rig count. So we have our own report. Overall rigs decreased by one more, to 298, over the past week, prompting some industry experts to speculate we’ve finally “hit bottom” with the rig count. Have we?
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Yesterday our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR estimates how much oil and natural gas each of the country’s seven largest shale plays produced in the previous (current) month, and how much each will produce in the coming (next) month. The June report, which predicts production for the coming month of July, estimates natural gas production in the Permian basin has just about stabilized (will go down just a little). However, natgas production in the Marcellus/Utica will continue to drop like a rock in the coming month.
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The U.S. onshore rig count continues to collapse, hitting a historic new low of 299. Over the past week, another 12 rigs disappeared from the count, mainly located in oil plays (like the Permian). Since the beginning of March, the Marcellus had (as of last week) lost 11 rigs in total. The Marcellus gained back one of those rigs. Since the beginning of March the Utica has stayed consistent with 10-11 rigs operating. Last week the Utica lost two rigs, now down to 9 rigs operating.
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The U.S. onshore rig count continues to collapse. Over the past week another 22 rigs disappeared from the count, mainly located in oil plays (like the Permian). Yet the news continues to be spun as “the bottom appears closer” when the decrease will stop. Really? We don’t see it! Last week the Marcellus (dry gas area of northeastern PA) lost another rig.
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For the past month and a half, MDN has brought you rig count data from Enverus (formerly Drillinginfo) each Friday. Last Friday we reported the count had hit a new modern-day low, but that the Marcellus had gained back one of the seven rigs lost over a previous three week period (see Enverus: Drop in Rig Count Slows Again, Marcellus Picks Up 1 Rig). Today’s update shows rigs hitting another new modern-day low, with the Marcellus giving up the rig it gained last week. How much lower can the rig count go?
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According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the “lifeblood” of the global energy system is…investment. That is, money. Without investment, new sources of energy don’t appear. In 2016 IEA began to publish an annual report called World Energy Investment, in order to track spending on all forms of energy worldwide. Earlier this week IEA published its fifth annual version of the report. In the report, IEA says 2020, because of the coronavirus pandemic, will mark the largest-ever collapse in global energy investment in history. IEA says the coming investment decline will impact oil the most.
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David Blackmon, a senior contributor to the Forbes magazine website and 39-year veteran working for various oil companies including Burlington Resources, Shell, and El Paso Corporation, is one of our favorite experts to read on matters relating to the oil patch. He is a strong O&G supporter. So when we spotted a recent Forbes article Blackmon wrote titled, “Why The Brief Era Of American Energy Dominance Is Over,” that sure got our attention.
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For the past month or so MDN has brought you rig count data from Enverus (formerly Drillinginfo) each Friday. Last Friday we reported the count had hit a new modern-day low, and that the Marcellus had lost another couple of rigs, making it a total of seven lost rigs in the Marcellus over a three week period (see US Land Rig Count Falls to 369 – Marcellus Loses Another 2 Rigs). While today’s update shows rigs hitting another new modern-day low, the Marcellus gained back 1 rig. Whew.
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Baker Hughes, one of the largest oilfield services (drilling) companies in the U.S. and the world, began keeping records on rig counts starting in 1987. As of May 12, 2020, producers operated 339 rigs in the U.S. That’s the lowest number of operating rigs since Baker Hughes began publishing its venerated rig count. It’s not the kind of record we like to see broken.
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Yesterday a coalition of twenty-three free market, small business, and consumer groups joined the American Energy Alliance (AEA) in warning President Trump not to slap tariffs on imported crude oil from our enemies (Saudi Arabia and Russia) as a means to help the decimated oil and gas industry. We disagree.
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What happens in the oil patch has a direct bearing on the financial health of gas drillers in the Marcellus/Utica, which is why we periodically cover happenings in oil. We’re now beginning to see articles with the theme that the oil price crash is already over. Yesterday West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $32.50/barrel. Still not great, but a lot better than the negative $37.63 we saw a few weeks ago! However, does a higher price for oil automatically mean shale oil drilling will immediately return, and with it more associated gas keeping the price of natgas low?
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The crash in the drilling rig count continued last week for the ninth straight week, although the decline slowed for a third week in a row. U.S. oil and gas rigs for land-based operations fell another 29 last week, to a total of 369 active rigs. Most of the decrease comes from oil-focused rigs. However, we’ve noticed a disturbing trend in the Marcellus rig count.
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The crash in the drilling rig count continued last week, although the decline slowed for a second week in a row. U.S. oil and gas rigs for land-based operations fell another 34 last week, to a total of 398 active rigs. The Permian continued to lead rig count declines. All major shale oil plays have now seen at least a 50% drop in rigs over the same period last year. It’s been a breathtaking fall.
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Not unsurprisingly, the U.S. rig count (for both oil and gas, although mainly oil) continues to plummet week after week. The latest numbers show rigs taken out of active duty (laid down) decreased another 59 over the past week. That’s better than the 76 laid down the week before (see Carnage Continues: Rig Count Down Another 76, Marcellus Down 2), but still not great. Hundreds of rigs have been laid down over the past month–most of them in the oil patch. But not all. Last week the Marcellus lost four rigs after losing one the week before.
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