CERAWeek: EQT Says NatGas Balanced 2023; Cheniere Wants More M-U Gas
As we have been reporting, CERAWeek, the world’s premier energy conference, is happening all this week in Houston, Texas. On Tuesday, Bloomberg reporters filed a roundup/overview of happenings at the event. Below is the roundup from Day Two of CERAWeek, which includes a comment by EQT CEO Toby Rice, who said he believes the natural gas market will come back into balance in the “middle half” of this year as production adjusts (i.e., less drilling) following the recent precipitous collapse in prices.
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New shale permits issued for Feb. 20-26 in the Marcellus/Utica slide lower last week. There were 29 new permits issued in total last week (down from 35 the week before), including 24 new permits for Pennsylvania, no new permits for Ohio, and five new permits issued in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits by far was the largest natural gas driller in the country, EQT Corporation, with 20 new permits split between Greene and Washington counties in southwestern PA.
The difference between the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) and the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is stark. The former is well-run and rational, the latter is disorganized and irrational. At least with respect to fracking. Over the weekend, the SRBC published a notice in the Pennsylvania Bulletin to announce that during the month of January, the agency approved 38 requests for daily water use on shale well pads in the SRBC’s jurisdictional territory in Pennsylvania, totaling some 233.5 million gallons. Put another way, this is a handy list of where drilling will soon happen in northeastern PA.
EQT Corporation, the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. (completely focused on the Marcellus/Utica), issued its fourth quarter and full year 2022 update yesterday. Both revenue and production fell slightly in 4Q22 over 4Q21 due to issues with third-party providers. Production for the entire year was just about even. However, because of the high price of natgas for most of 2022, EQT raked in $1.8 billion in net income last year versus losing $1.1 billion the year before.
We suppose you can file this story under the category of “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.” We’re referring to hedging–the practice of locking in prices to sell gas you will produce in the future for a specific price now. Last year natural gas producers, including most (if not all) of Marcellus/Utica producers, were caught flat-footed when the price of natgas skyrocketed and their hedges were locked in for much lower prices. So as the hedges “rolled off,” many producers either elected not to hedge again, or hedged very little of their future production. And now prices have crashed again, meaning those producers are not protected and must sell most (if not all) of their production at very low market prices.
The Ohio Court of Appeals recently issued a decision in a case involving lease language about a “depth severance clause” that is very important for both landowners and drillers to know about. In Tera LLC v. Rice Drilling D LLC, et al., a landowner in Belmont County, OH, signed a lease with language that leases both the Marcellus and Utica shale layers, but all other formations were “reserved to the lessor” (i.e. the landowner). However, the driller, Rice (now EQT), drilled into and produced hydrocarbons from the Point Pleasant layer that sits immediately below the Utica. According to the lease (and the decision by the court), that was a no-no.
The CEO of the largest natural gas driller/producer in the U.S., EQT’s Toby Rice, is currently attending the Atlantic Conference in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates. He spoke with Bloomberg reporters about what he sees ahead for U.S. natural gas production coming this year and, more broadly, about the problems he sees in general. Rice said, “The gas markets in the US are broken.” Why? Lack of pipeline infrastructure and the inability to build new ones.
Yesterday, Chesapeake Energy, EQT, and Equitrans Midstream launched what the three companies call the Appalachian Methane Initiative (AMI), a coalition committed to further enhancing methane monitoring throughout the Appalachia Basin with an aim to reduce methane emissions throughout the region. Is this yet another certification scheme to prove methane leakage is low?
Last September, EQT Corporation announced it is buying privately-owned Tug Hill Operating’s West Virginia shale assets for $5.2 billion (see 
What a difference three years can make! Three years ago, Henry Hub prices were hovering around $2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Stock valuations for Marcellus/Utica drillers were majorly depressed (down 80-90% from previous highs), and gas producers were struggling. Fast forward to today. Balance sheets and earnings statements are through the roof. Most experts believe $4-$5/Mcf gas is sustainable–at least for the next X years. What does the future look like for M-U drillers? What are the risks? And can we keep the current bright outlook going?