Warning: Underinvestment in O&G Leading to Price Shocks Thru 2030
Underinvestment in oil and gas development extended into a second year in 2021 even as global energy demand rebounded, raising the prospect of price shocks, scarcity, and growing energy poverty, according to a new report by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and IHS Markit. Oil and gas investment will need to return to pre-COVID levels and stay there through 2030 to restore market balance, the report states. If more investment doesn’t happen quickly, the world will experience more price gyrations and it will lead to “adverse economic consequences,” such as wider energy poverty, more frequent scarcity, and fuel switching to more polluting energy sources such as wood and coal.
Read More “Warning: Underinvestment in O&G Leading to Price Shocks Thru 2030”
The NYMEX natural gas futures price plunged more than 10% on Monday, falling to the lowest level since August to close down 47.5 cents at $3.66 per MMBtu. And that comes after last week’s 24% loss, which was natural gas’ worst week since February 2014! What’s going on? The forecast is for warmer-than-expected winter temperatures across much of the country.
The NYMEX “front month” futures contract for natural gas traded on the Henry Hub benchmark has crashed over the past three days, down more than 90 cents, closing at $4.26/MMBtu yesterday. Why? Because weather models predict relatively warm weather in the weeks ahead. Weather trumps all other factors in the price of natural gas. Which exposes the intentional lie (or stupidity, take your pick) of people like U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren who are spreading the false narrative that LNG exports are the cause of high natural gas prices here at home (see 
Earlier this week MDN told you about a nastygram written by U.S. Senator Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren (see 
According to the experts at RBN Energy, “If there was ever a year that proves NGLs march to the beat of a different drummer, 2021 was it.” Production of NGLs went *up* during the pandemic, not down. Prices have been up, down, and all around. Like all oil and gas markets (markets of any kind, really), there is no one, specific factor or reason why NGL production and prices are doing what they are doing. It is a complex soup of factors that affect the NGL market–a market that’s increasingly vital for Marcellus/Utica producers.
According to S&P Global Platts, gas production from the Marcellus and Utica shales, since the beginning of November, has “surged,” rising by nearly 1 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day), or up about 2.7%. The surge means production is now near record highs–in the upper 34 Bcf/d range. However, the M-U is constrained by pipeline takeaway and finite local markets. With rising supply and steady demand, prices are doing what Econ 101 predicts: beginning to fall.
How much more of Joe Biden’s completely failed policies are you willing to tolerate? His so-called “Build Back Better” budget bill, which will cost Americans (YOU) $1.75 trillion (no, it’s NOT paid for by “someone else”), retains a new tax on methane that will jack up the rates everyone pays for natural gas by an estimated 12-34%. The price of gasoline is up 53% year over year for October ($3.291 in Oct 2021 vs. $2.158 in Oct 2020). Similarly, the price of #2 heating oil is up 59% year over year for October ($3.397 in Oct 2021 vs. $2.142 in Oct 2020). The price of natural gas has also jumped–even more!
The current futures contract for NYMEX natural gas priced at the Henry Hub trading location, called the “front month” (of December), was down for the third trading day in a row yesterday. The December contract fell 45 cents (8.26%) to $4.98 per MMBtu–the first time it has slipped under $5 since October 21. Where might the price be heading next?
In a normal world where freedom rings throughout the land and free enterprise and capitalism rule, if the price of a commodity like natural gas soars, new drilling would happen and new pipelines (midstream infrastructure) would get built. In a warped world where wokey leftists demand divestment from “fossil fuels” those things don’t happen. Right now we desperately need more pipelines and more drilling. Neither is happening. RBN Energy explains how lack of new pipeline capacity is holding back new drilling–and why it’s happening, particularly in the Marcellus/Utica…
Although three major Marcellus/Utica drillers provided third quarter updates yesterday, we only cover EQT’s update in today’s lineup of stories. Come back Monday for details from both Antero Resources and CNX Resources. S&P Global Platts reviewed all three updates from yesterday and noticed a difference in how each of the three companies is approaching hedging, or preselling production for a specific price up to a year or more in advance. According to S&P, regaining investment-grade ratings for company stock was a stated goal by executives at all three companies during their 3Q earnings calls. They all aim to maximize free cash flows and paying down debt. Hedging programs were touted as the pathway to accomplish these balance-sheet goals.
A few weeks ago MDN tackled the question of why natural gas producers, in general, are not drilling more given the high price of natural gas right now (see 
Although Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Chairman Richard “Dick” Glick is a nutty leftist, he’s not stupid. Glick can see that within a month or two there will be widespread shortages of natural gas available to feed gas-fired power plants, particularly in places like New England. Glick has voted against every single interstate pipeline project to come before him over the last three years he’s been a commissioner, claiming the pipes would contribute to mythical global warming. Now his actions are beginning to bite him on the rump with coming shortages. So what does he do? He blames LNG exports and tells power plants they better grab all the gas contracts they can now, so they can keep operating this winter.