Marcellus/Utica NatGas Spot Prices Nosedive, Down ~$1/MMBtu
According to S&P Global Platts, spot gas prices across the northeast and Appalachia were “trading sharply lower Feb. 7.” It is, says Platts, “a dynamic that could continue into the second week of February, as stronger regional gas production and higher temperature forecasts loosen supply and demand fundamentals.” How much lower are prices trading? The Eastern Gas South trading hub (formerly Dominion South) fell by almost $1/MMBtu yesterday. The Columbia Gas, Appalachia trading hub fell more than $1.
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In recent weeks and months, MDN has beat the drum about the high price of natural gas and electricity (generated by burning natural gas) in New England (
Last Thursday the NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract for natural gas went on a wild ride, closing up $1.99 (46%) from the previous day (see 
Last week we brought you the bitterly disappointing news that the clown judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit (the 4th Circus) have, for a second time, overturned permits for Mountain Valley Pipeline (94% complete!) to build through 3.5 miles of Jefferson National Forest (see 
Yesterday afternoon the price of the NYMEX Henry Hub “front month” February futures contract for natural gas went on a wild ride. The February contract, due to expire at the end of trading, at one point sold for $7.40/MMBtu, up some 72% in a single day! The price finally settled at the end of trading at $6.265/MMBtu, up $1.99 (46%) from the previous day. It was the single biggest spike in the price of the front contract ever, since the contract launched in 1990 and the largest one-day gain on record. What in the world happened? And is this an indicator of higher prices to come?
Natural gas production has taken a “precipitous drop” in the U.S. in January according to S&P Global Platts. After approaching a record high at over 96.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in late December, U.S. natural gas production has “tumbled since the start of the new year,” falling by over 4 Bcf/d to average just 92.2 Bcf/d in January. Why?
We’re seeing mixed signals for the price of natural gas in the Marcellus/Utica and where it may be heading in the near future. One set of signals is the day-ahead cash price (“spot price”)–the deals to sell physically-delivered natural gas at a certain price at a particular hub/location. The spot price for M-U gas at hubs like the Eastern Gas South (widely viewed as the benchmark in the M-U region), is up. But the forward price is, if anything, down a bit.
The experts at S&P Global Platts have hauled out the old crystal ball–the one that looks at natural gas prices in the near-term (next couple of weeks to a month), and they foresee a rise in prices coming very soon. According to Platts, a drop in U.S. natgas production combined with colder weather that forces the use of natgas for heating which leads to tighter supplies means the price of natural gas will rise. How much and when?
S&P Global Platts Analytics is reporting natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica (which they call Appalachia) has “tumbled.” After reaching a record-high 34.8 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) in late December, Appalachia gas production fell to an estimated 33.3 Bcf/d on Jan. 14 (down 4%). The drop in production has caused the price of gas at regional trading hubs like Eastern Gas South (formerly Dominion South) to jump. Eastern Gas South is up 34 cents from the beginning of January.
Did you catch the huge spike in the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price yesterday? Day over day, the February NYMEX contract price increased by $0.61 to close at $4.86/MMBtu–up 12.52% in a single day. Similarly, the March NYMEX futures contract jumped by $0.36 cents to close at $4.33. Why the big gains? In a single word: weather.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub averaged $3.91/MMBtu for 2021. Each month the EIA issues a Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). In the latest STEO update for January, EIA predicts that the annual average HH price will average $3.79/MMBtu in 2022, down $0.12 from 2021. EIA further predicts the HH price in 2023 will go down yet more, to an average of $3.63.
“Anti” in MDN’s parlance means “anti-fossil fuel.” Being anti-fossil fuel is a wholly insane philosophical position to take, yet many in the Democrat Party have taken that position. (Yes, we’re calling some Democrats insane.) People like Sen. Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren, Sen. Ed “Lackey” Markey, and Sen. “Crazy” Bernie Sanders, and others in Congress, bash away and demand the end of fossil fuels. Yet those same antis who demand an end to fossil energy have just sent a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) demanding FERC do something to lower the price of oil, natural gas, and electricity in their blue states. Why? Because they don’t want to be voted out of office for their obviously failed policies.
Baby, it’s cold outside! At least here in the northeastern U.S. Cold temps in the northeast are causing an increase in the use of natural gas for both heating and electricity production. That increase in demand is (you guessed it) causing an increase in prices, and the increase in prices is causing some natural gas flows to reverse course and head north instead of south out of the Marcellus/Utica.