Will Freeport LNG Fire Cause NatGas Prices to Drop to 2021 Levels?
Have you been watching the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price? It’s been dropping like a rock since last week when a fire caused Freeport LNG and its 2 Bcf/d of exported LNG to go offline (see NYMEX NatGas Down 20% in Single Day on Freeport LNG Bad News). Freeport will be largely offline for most of the balance of 2022. We spotted a post by an analyst on the Seeking Alpha investor’s website talking about the Freeport situation and its impact on the price of natural gas (specifically on the UNG ETF). The analyst had some interesting things to say about how and whether the Freeport situation will affect natgas prices here at home.
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Freeport LNG provided an update yesterday to inform the public about what happened at its export facility just south of Galveston, Texas, situated on the Gulf Coast. Freeport said an “incident” occurred in pipe racks that support the transfer of LNG from the facility’s LNG storage tank area to the terminal’s dock facilities located on the intracoastal (i.e., north) side of Freeport LNG’s dock basin. None of the liquefaction trains, LNG storage tanks, dock facilities, or LNG process areas were impacted. Freeport originally said the facility would be back online in three weeks. That’s a pipe dream (pun intended). Yesterday Freeport revised their estimate to three months minimum before partial operations are back online. It will be the end of the year for full operations exporting all 2 Bcf/d are back online, according to Freeport.
Although the NYMEX price for natural gas took a plunge yesterday due to news that the country’s second-largest LNG export facility, Freeport, is offline for three weeks (see today’s lead story), the price of physically traded “day-ahead” natural gas (the spot price) in the Marcellus/Utica region continues to soar. In May, the average price of natural gas for day-ahead delivery in the M-U region soared, up 209% over May 2021. The price of spot gas everywhere is up–across the entire country. But it was up the most in the M-U in May.
Each month the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issues a monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Last month, in May, the STEO made the startling prediction that the average Henry Hub price for natural gas (the national benchmark) would hit $8.13 for 3Q22 and $8.59 for the entire second half of this year (see 
In what is being called an “explosive” trading session yesterday, the price for the front-month NYMEX contract (July) spiked up 80 cents in a single day to close at $9.32/MMBtu–the highest level in over 13 years. The August NYMEX contract closed at one penny less, $9.31/MMBtu. The weather seems to be the main reason for the spike. Longer range forecasts for Texas and the Midcontinent region are for high heat in the coming weeks. The high heat will lead to running air conditioners that use electricity. Windmills in Texas are “faltering” and not expected to deliver their normal load, meaning natgas plants will need to make up the difference. Once again unreliable renewables prove they are not up to the task.
RBN Energy’s own Rusty Braziel (the R and the B in RBN) is back with another powerhouse post on the RBN blog site. This one is about the market for ethane. For those new to MDN, ethane is one of the primary NGLs (natural gas liquids) that comes out of the ground along with oil and natural gas. Propane and butane are a couple of other common NGLs produced in the Marcellus/Utica. Ethane is the raw material used to produce ethylene, and ethylene is turned into plastic pellets that are used to manufacture thousands of different products you use every day of your life. The ethane market is, according to Braziel, “in turmoil” right now. Ethane prices are up, almost double since January, and are at their highest level in 10 years. Ethane traditionally has been a waste product for many M-U drillers. Now it’s an important source of revenue.
We are on the cusp of seeing the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price close above $9/MMBtu. Yesterday it closed at $8.97/MMBtu. Will today be the day it goes above $9? Probably. The price hit $9.40 during intraday trading yesterday but slid back down the hill just a bit before the closing bell. We are now at 14-year highs for the NYMEX price of gas. We’re still nowhere near the all-time high of close to $15.78 hit in December 2005. The scary thought is that we may well exceed the old record at some point in the next six months (see 
We’ve tackled the issue of why there isn’t more oil and natural gas drilling happening in the Marcellus/Utica and beyond even with prices for both commodities through the proverbial roof. Not that many years ago prices were a fraction of what they are now and yet the drilling industry would not, could not stop drilling new wells, flooding the market with product and crashing prices. Now, it’s the reverse! It seems nothing will incentivize drillers to drill any new wells beyond enough to keep production steady. Why? An article in the Wall Street Journal seeks to answer the question, definitively.
For how many years now have we had to suffer through insufferable “reporting” that tells us the day of Big Oil is over. That woke investors have turned their backs on oil and gas companies and that no new investment in O&G will happen ever again. Now that oil and natgas prices are through the roof and oil and gas companies are turning in record profits with gobs of free cash flow, buying back shares and issuing dividends–guess what has happened? Wall Street investors have turned their backs on high-flying, woke Big Tech companies and instead are investing where the money is–in oil and gas. We love it!
A historic runup in the NYMEX futures price for natural gas is turning into a historic drop in price. Over the past two trading days, last Friday and yesterday (Monday), the NYMEX price dropped $0.74 and $1.02 respectively for a total drop of $1.74. The reason for the drop appears to be an increase in production, up one full Bcf (billion cubic feet) last week from the prior week. The bears are on the prowl, looking to “maul” natgas futures. Strap in–it’s going to continue to be a bumpy ride on this roller coaster.
Wow! This is getting interesting…and scary. The NYMEX futures price of natural gas for the current “front month” contract soared another 37 cents yesterday to close at $8.78 per MMBtu. Another 14-year high. It certainly looks as though the price will soon blow by $9/MMBtu. One expert says “we feel we easily can go over $10 in prompt-month [pricing] over the next several weeks.” Yikes! What’s causing this massive spike?