Single Biggest Reason Why NatGas Prices High/Staying High? LNG
According to the experts at RBN Energy, U.S. LNG feedgas demand “has been the single biggest factor behind the soaring natural gas prices and storage shortfall this year.” Feedgas is the gas that feeds LNG export facilities. Two more LNG facilities are due to begin operation in the first half of 2022, both of which have the potential to use Marcellus/Utica molecules. RBN does a deep dive into how LNG export facilities ramp up and when even more feedgas demand will increase.
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Say a prayer for the folks in Louisiana. Hurricane Ida made landfall Sunday as a Category 4 storm near Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Gov. John Bel Edwards described it as “one of the strongest storms to make landfall here in modern times.” As the storm worked its way through the Gulf of Mexico, nearly all (95%) of the oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf went offline and evacuated personnel in preparation. Given supplies going offline, and given the hurricane missed major LNG export facilities (meaning they will continue to operate), the price of natural gas skyrocketed, closing at $4.37 and (according to some analysts) on its way to a modern-era high of $4.50 or more.
In June MDN brought you the news that Enbridge’s Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) pipeline was being flow-restricted by the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA). Some 40% of the Marcellus/Utica molecules that flow through TETCO’s pipeline to destinations in the southeastern U.S. disappeared and were predicted to stay that way until the end of September (see 
Henri, the huuuuge, “first hurricane to hit New England in 30 years” storm, turned out to be a relative nothingburger. Some 100,000 electric and gas customers lost service for a day or so. We don’t minimize the pain and trauma they experienced, but frankly, Henri was minimal compared to most hurricanes that strike land in the U.S. Already the spot price for natural gas in places like Boston and New York City (and elsewhere across the M-U) is soaring once again. It’s hot and humid in the northeast, and natural gas is needed to power air conditioners and electric power plants, driving up demand. That’s good for drillers and landowners.
In something of a strange twist, the Bloomberg News service is sounding the alarm that the world is headed for a shortage of natural gas. Bloomberg hates fossil fuels and anything to do with them. Yet they now sense an impending shortage of natural gas and it’s causing the Bloomies some existential angst. Bloomberg reports natgas prices in Europe have “surged more than 1,000%” since May 2020 with no end in sight. Earth to Bloomberg: Europe has no one to blame but themselves. They don’t want our “fracked gas.” Let them buy Putin’s pipelined gas at extortionist rates.
Once again the price of natural gas–both the financial futures price (the NYMEX) and even spot physical prices in many locations, like the M-U, increased dramatically. The NYMEX is back above $4/MMBtu once again. Just two months ago we longed for, prayed for, yearned for gas above $3! Why are natural gas prices moving higher and (for now) staying higher? In a nutshell, for three reasons: record exports, hot weather, and self-restrained drillers.
Analysts are predicting natural gas prices in the northeastern U.S. market area “could hit their highest [rate] in four years or more” this coming winter. Why? Producers have not ramped up drilling to the same levels we saw prior to the COVID pandemic. Lack of new drilling is causing a storage deficit–less gas being socked away for the winter months. With “strong demand” coming this winter, futures prices for the coming winter months in the northeast is already on the climb–in some places more than $14/MMBtu!
Every now and again we’ll pick up and run a press release from a company looking to sell something to the M-U energy space. This is one of those times. We spotted a release from a company that has launched an online platform used by natural gas buyers to manage their purchases (i.e. trades). Mickey is an online commodities trading platform that connects buyers and sellers of natural gas (in addition to other commodities). Mickey’s platform enables domestic natural gas buyers to source supplies from small-to-medium-sized producers in the U.S. The platform currently offers energy supply sourcing in New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania–with plans to expand over time.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), prices for natural gas this summer are “the highest since 2014.” Who could have predicted? We sure didn’t. In June, the U.S. natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub averaged $3.26/MMBtu, the highest price during any summer month (April-September) since 2014. Prices in July have increased from June, averaging $3.67/MMBtu through the first two weeks of July. Yesterday the NYMEX futures price for the Henry Hub hit $4/MMBtu for the first time since Dec. 14, 2018.
Last week MDN told you about an unplanned outage at two MarkWest natural gas processing plants located in West Virginia (see 
The natural gas markets just made a bit of history. Friday, July 2nd, marked the last day in a series of nine days that the NYMEX futures price for natural gas increased from the previous day. Beginning Monday the price has slide down just a bit. Nine straight trading days of higher natgas prices is the longest period of day-over-day price rises in the past 20 years! The weather certainly had a lot to do with the increase in prices, but a key part, perhaps the starring role in why prices have continued to climb, is the role of LNG exports.
The tinpot dictators who run the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia (OPEC+) can’t agree on increasing overall production levels of oil. What a surprise. Meanwhile, America’s own shale frackers refuse to increase their own drilling to meet the increase in world demand, having been cowed by woke leftists into “behaving” themselves. And so the world’s oil production (not supplies, but actual production) continues to decline at a time when more oil is needed. Lack of supply is driving the price of oil higher.
The price of natural gas for the NYMEX futures contract (July) based on the price at the benchmark Henry Hub, hit a new, 30-month high yesterday closing at $3.62/MMBtu. But that’s not even the biggest news. The spot price of natural gas at multiple locations across the country (including the Marcellus/Utica) is cooking, largely due to the hot temps in both the Pacific Northwest and the East Coast. The cash price at Algonquin city-gates (Boston area) rose about $1 to trade at $4.87/MMBtu, while Transco Zone 6 NY (New York City area) was up 79 cents at $3.93/MMBtu. Cove Point LNG (exports 100% Marcellus molecules) cash prices climbed 66.5 cents to $3.845.
Yesterday the July NYMEX gas futures contract (the current contract) went up by 8.5 cents to settle at $3.42. The August NYMEX futures contract closed at $3.44, also up 8.5 cents on the day. The big question is why? The short answer is that less gas was put into storage than expected for this time of year. The slightly longer answer is that less gas went into storage because of the hot weather and all those air conditioners whirling using all that electricity and all that electricity gets generated in big part by burning natural gas. So the bottom line is this: Natural gas futures prices popped yesterday because of the weather.