EIA Revises NatGas & Power Consumption Up for 2021-2022
Good news. The expert forecasters at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have had another look at their predictions for how much natural gas and electricity we will use here in the U.S. and decided to boost their projections for 2021 and 2022. Electric use will grow, EIA says, by 2.1% in 2021 over 2020. As for natural gas, EIA says average daily marketed gas production will increase by 610 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2021 to 98.95 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d). EIA is now predicting natgas production in 2022 will increase by 1.7 Bcf/d to 100.63 Bcf/d. We’re pretty sure that would be a new, all-time record high.
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Just two weeks ago we reported on the historical, insanely high natural gas spot prices being paid across the country (see 
On Monday of this week we reported about natural gas withdrawals from underground storage for the week ending Feb. 12, which were the twelfth largest on record since 2010 and the biggest one-week withdrawal in the past two years (see 
While the recent spike over the past week in natural gas prices was a fluke, an anomaly due to a rare snow and freezing cold event in the nation’s southwest and Midcontinent regions, the long-term price of natural gas has not moved all that much. The NYMEX futures prices for natgas month by month for the foreseeable future has stayed under or just above the $3/MMBtu mark. Yet we continue to see predictions of alarm that we’re heading for a natgas shortage and with it, a rise in gas prices.
It really is frightening how stupid some of our nation’s leaders really are. They don’t even understand basic economics 101 (they likely never took the class in college). Example: U.S. Sen. Tina Smith from Minnesota (Democrat) who wants federal regulators to investigate the recent spike in natural gas prices, which soared to record levels–into the hundreds of dollars per Mcf. Smith apparently doesn’t understand simple economics and the law of supply and demand.
Just yesterday we told you about the craziness in natural gas prices in Oklahoma (and elsewhere, like Texas) that happened last Friday, when the cash price for natgas hit $600 in trading at one hub in the Sooner State (see 
Supply and demand, that’s what it’s all about in a pure commodity market like natural gas. Supply and demand just about came off the rails last Friday in Oklahoma as the price of natural gas selling along Oneok Gas Transmission’s (OGT) 23 interstate and 20 intrastate pipeline connections entered the stratosphere. At one point the cash price for natgas in OK was fetching $600/MMBtu! No, this is not a joke. That’s the highest price paid for natgas…ever.
Yesterday we told you that natural gas spot (i.e. cash) prices at various pipeline trading hubs had hit fresh, one-year highs, including here in the Marcellus/Utica (see 
The spot price (cash paid for immediate delivery) of natural gas at trading hubs across the country, including in the Marcellus/Utica, continues to hit new highs not seen in over a year. Even though the longer-range NYMEX futures price isn’t moving all that much. Pay no attention to the futures price! Look at the spot price. In the Henry Hub (Louisiana), the benchmark for all natgas prices, the spot price yesterday closed at $3.83/MMBtu, up $0.48 in one day. Dominion South closed at roughly $3.30/MMBtu, up $0.36 from the day before. And Tennessee Gas Zone 4 Marcellus closed at roughly $3.20/MMBtu, up $0.39 from the day before.
Analysts at S&P Global Platts say that with the current cold snap underway in the northeast, already decreasing natural gas production from the Marcellus/Utica may accelerate with wellhead freeze-offs. Sometimes in colder temps (hey, it was 2 degrees at MDN HQ this morning) water and other liquids in the gas can freeze and block the flow of gas, called a wellhead freeze-off.
Last week MDN told you about a spike in natural gas and electric rates in New York City and New England, thanks to the cold snap and lack of natural gas pipelines into the region (see 
