M-U Forward NatGas Prices Head Higher – Supply Can’t Keep Up
The price of natural gas traded on “forward” contracts for the fall at what used to be called the Dominion South (now called Eastern Gas Transmission) trading hub near Pittsburgh is up 23 cents (14%) for contracts in September and October. Forward prices are based on current spot prices. Translation: The market is strongly indicating it thinks the price of M-U gas is heading higher in the coming fall months.
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An interesting post by our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) about their latest predictions for the price of natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub. EIA predicts the average price at HH this year, in 2021, will end up being around $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The average in 2020 was $1.998 (round it up to $2.00). So this year the average price will be some 54% higher than last year. What about 2022?
As temperatures rise across the U.S. and Americans flip on air conditioning which makes a big draw on the electric grid, stocks of natural gas in storage are decreasing. Natgas is used to generate electricity. When there’s less supply to meet existing or growing demand, economics 101 tells us the price of the good or service (in this case natural gas) goes up. And indeed that’s exactly what’s happening. As the price of natgas increases, so too does the share price for M-U drillers.
Traders are crediting news from Enbridge’s Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) pipeline that a recent flow restriction enforced by the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA) will continue through the end of summer with helping to spike the Henry Hub futures price of natgas, up 4.5% on Friday to close at $3.30/MMBtu.
Each month our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issues a Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report. The STEO covers all of the major energy sources produced and consumed in the country. The latest edition, issued yesterday, finds the analysts at EIA revising up the expected marketed production and consumption of natural gas in 3Q21. Also up is the expected average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub–now up to a predicted $3.07/MMBtu for all of 2021. However, EIA says natural gas consumption for all of 2021 will sink by half of one percent from 2020. Why?
Two weeks ago we brought you the sad news that completion and startup for Equitrans’ 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and the company’s 75-mile extension to it called MVP Southgate will now be delayed until 2022 and 2023 respectively (see 
Due to a severe winter storm in the nation’s midsection in February, natural gas spot prices across the country went crazy (see 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent monthly short-term energy outlook (STEO) contains some disheartening numbers regarding natural gas production and consumption. EIA, with some of the best number crunchers in the business, predicts natural gas production will hit 91.41 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021 and 93.29 Bcf/d in 2022. The current all-time high was 93.06 Bcf/d, hit in 2019 prior to the pandemic. That’s the good news. The bad news is that consumption (i.e. demand) is forecast to decrease even further this year and next year.
According to S&P Global Platts, natural gas production from the Marcellus/Utica in 1Q21 is up nearly 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), now averaging 33.2 Bcf/d. That’s an increase of 2.8% compared with 1Q20. The problem is the interstate transmission pipelines flowing M-U gas are nearly full and the increase in production means we are beginning to see too much natgas piling up, leading to lower spot prices here in the northeast. However, not all sub-regions in the M-U are seeing an uptick in production.
Good news. The expert forecasters at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have had another look at their predictions for how much natural gas and electricity we will use here in the U.S. and decided to boost their projections for 2021 and 2022. Electric use will grow, EIA says, by 2.1% in 2021 over 2020. As for natural gas, EIA says average daily marketed gas production will increase by 610 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2021 to 98.95 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d). EIA is now predicting natgas production in 2022 will increase by 1.7 Bcf/d to 100.63 Bcf/d. We’re pretty sure that would be a new, all-time record high.
Just two weeks ago we reported on the historical, insanely high natural gas spot prices being paid across the country (see 
On Monday of this week we reported about natural gas withdrawals from underground storage for the week ending Feb. 12, which were the twelfth largest on record since 2010 and the biggest one-week withdrawal in the past two years (see 
While the recent spike over the past week in natural gas prices was a fluke, an anomaly due to a rare snow and freezing cold event in the nation’s southwest and Midcontinent regions, the long-term price of natural gas has not moved all that much. The NYMEX futures prices for natgas month by month for the foreseeable future has stayed under or just above the $3/MMBtu mark. Yet we continue to see predictions of alarm that we’re heading for a natgas shortage and with it, a rise in gas prices.