M-U Forward Prices Near Record High with Flat Supply, Big Power Burn
Last week we brought you an article from S&P about the forward price of natural gas at the Dominion South (now called Eastern Gas Transmission) trading hub near Pittsburgh. The article indicates prices in the M-U will move higher this fall (see M-U Forward NatGas Prices Head Higher – Supply Can’t Keep Up). A week later S&P is back with another story on the same topic, this time to say those forward prices at Dominion South are up 60 cents per MMBtu over the past two weeks and are now near or at record highs.
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The price of natural gas for the NYMEX futures contract (July) based on the price at the benchmark Henry Hub, hit a new, 30-month high yesterday closing at $3.62/MMBtu. But that’s not even the biggest news. The spot price of natural gas at multiple locations across the country (including the Marcellus/Utica) is cooking, largely due to the hot temps in both the Pacific Northwest and the East Coast. The cash price at Algonquin city-gates (Boston area) rose about $1 to trade at $4.87/MMBtu, while Transco Zone 6 NY (New York City area) was up 79 cents at $3.93/MMBtu. Cove Point LNG (exports 100% Marcellus molecules) cash prices climbed 66.5 cents to $3.845.
Yesterday the July NYMEX gas futures contract (the current contract) went up by 8.5 cents to settle at $3.42. The August NYMEX futures contract closed at $3.44, also up 8.5 cents on the day. The big question is why? The short answer is that less gas was put into storage than expected for this time of year. The slightly longer answer is that less gas went into storage because of the hot weather and all those air conditioners whirling using all that electricity and all that electricity gets generated in big part by burning natural gas. So the bottom line is this: Natural gas futures prices popped yesterday because of the weather.
The price of natural gas traded on “forward” contracts for the fall at what used to be called the Dominion South (now called Eastern Gas Transmission) trading hub near Pittsburgh is up 23 cents (14%) for contracts in September and October. Forward prices are based on current spot prices. Translation: The market is strongly indicating it thinks the price of M-U gas is heading higher in the coming fall months.
An interesting post by our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) about their latest predictions for the price of natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub. EIA predicts the average price at HH this year, in 2021, will end up being around $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The average in 2020 was $1.998 (round it up to $2.00). So this year the average price will be some 54% higher than last year. What about 2022?
As temperatures rise across the U.S. and Americans flip on air conditioning which makes a big draw on the electric grid, stocks of natural gas in storage are decreasing. Natgas is used to generate electricity. When there’s less supply to meet existing or growing demand, economics 101 tells us the price of the good or service (in this case natural gas) goes up. And indeed that’s exactly what’s happening. As the price of natgas increases, so too does the share price for M-U drillers.
Traders are crediting news from Enbridge’s Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) pipeline that a recent flow restriction enforced by the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA) will continue through the end of summer with helping to spike the Henry Hub futures price of natgas, up 4.5% on Friday to close at $3.30/MMBtu.
Each month our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issues a Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report. The STEO covers all of the major energy sources produced and consumed in the country. The latest edition, issued yesterday, finds the analysts at EIA revising up the expected marketed production and consumption of natural gas in 3Q21. Also up is the expected average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub–now up to a predicted $3.07/MMBtu for all of 2021. However, EIA says natural gas consumption for all of 2021 will sink by half of one percent from 2020. Why?
Two weeks ago we brought you the sad news that completion and startup for Equitrans’ 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and the company’s 75-mile extension to it called MVP Southgate will now be delayed until 2022 and 2023 respectively (see 
Due to a severe winter storm in the nation’s midsection in February, natural gas spot prices across the country went crazy (see 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent monthly short-term energy outlook (STEO) contains some disheartening numbers regarding natural gas production and consumption. EIA, with some of the best number crunchers in the business, predicts natural gas production will hit 91.41 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021 and 93.29 Bcf/d in 2022. The current all-time high was 93.06 Bcf/d, hit in 2019 prior to the pandemic. That’s the good news. The bad news is that consumption (i.e. demand) is forecast to decrease even further this year and next year.
According to S&P Global Platts, natural gas production from the Marcellus/Utica in 1Q21 is up nearly 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), now averaging 33.2 Bcf/d. That’s an increase of 2.8% compared with 1Q20. The problem is the interstate transmission pipelines flowing M-U gas are nearly full and the increase in production means we are beginning to see too much natgas piling up, leading to lower spot prices here in the northeast. However, not all sub-regions in the M-U are seeing an uptick in production.
Good news. The expert forecasters at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have had another look at their predictions for how much natural gas and electricity we will use here in the U.S. and decided to boost their projections for 2021 and 2022. Electric use will grow, EIA says, by 2.1% in 2021 over 2020. As for natural gas, EIA says average daily marketed gas production will increase by 610 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2021 to 98.95 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d). EIA is now predicting natgas production in 2022 will increase by 1.7 Bcf/d to 100.63 Bcf/d. We’re pretty sure that would be a new, all-time record high.