Research

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    IEA 2015 Global 5-Year Gas Market Report, U.S. LNG in Trouble?

    Yesterday the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its “Medium-Term Gas Market Report” covering the next five years. The somewhat troubling forecast is that the overall demand for natural gas will grow at a slower pace–just 2% per year–rather than their previous prediction from last year–2.3% per year–for the next five years. Normally with low low gas prices demand would pick up. But the IEA says Asia’s demand for natural gas over the next five years will *decrease* instead of increase, which more than offsets low prices stimulating demand. The IEA says this has big implications for the flurry of LNG export facilities being planned in the U.S. According to the IEA, several U.S. LNG export facilities will “likely to be delayed or even cancelled”…
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    US Natgas Production Slides Backward in May; 1st Time Since Jan

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) won’t publish official domestic production estimates for natural gas until June 30th, but Bentek Energy, the analytics and forecasting unit at Platts, is already predicting what the numbers will show. Bentek says May natgas production in the lower 48 averaged 72.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in May, which is down 0.35 Bcf/d (less than 1%) from the April average. That will be the first time since January that overall production numbers has slide backward. One of the big factors in the numbers is production in the Marcellus/Utica…
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    Cleveland Fed Says Banks Not Concerned About Bad Loans to O&G Industry

    The Federal Reserve Bank did a survey of banks in April asking them about loans made to companies in the oil and gas industry. The results of that survey are interesting. In broad terms, most banks say they aren’t over-exposed to loans to oil and gas companies; that they know some of those loans will go south; and that they aren’t all that phased by the current tough times for the O&G industry. In the words of the Fed, banks aren’t “sounding the alarm” about loans to drillers and midstreamers…
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    Study Tries to Link Marcellus Fracking to Low Birth Weight Babies

    Junk ScienceHere’s how it works in anti-drilling land. Students who want to make a name for themselves and earn some cashola accept “funding” (i.e. a bribe) from an anti-drilling organization. The “funder” (i.e. briber) determines the topic and result they want the “research” to report. The students, from a prestigious school, then doctor up the research with enough surface credibility to fool stupid mainstream media types. The students then publish that “research” in an online journal with very low standards. What do you get? Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health accepting money from the Heinz Endowments to publish a study claiming mommies who live close to Marcellus Shale wells have babies with low birth weights (copy of the study below), published in the online journal PLOS ONE, now being picked up by the likes of CBS and other news outlets who are reporting what the authors themselves say is research that doesn’t prove anything. News headlines are then generated linking fracking to a negative health condition. The low-information, headline-only reading crowd reads the headline and never bothers to question whether or not it’s true (which it isn’t), and voila–we have another case of public brainwashing, assisted by students prostituting themselves for money and fame, and damaging the reputation of the University of Pittsburgh. All bought and paid for by a big money donor to the school, Teresa Heinz-Kerry, using her dead first husband’s money…
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    Research Says Converting Marcellus Gas into Methanol is Profitable

    The Ben Franklin Shale Gas Innovation and Commercialization Center (SGICC) funded a research study that looks at the potential to convert natural gas to methanol on a small to medium size plant scale. The study, titled “Natural Gas Utilization via Small-Scale Methanol Technologies” (copy below) concludes that yes indeed, such a use for potentially significant quantities of natural gas is feasible. Methanol is the simplest alcohol and is a light, volatile, colorless, and flammable liquid with a distinctive odor. Methanol is produced mainly using a two-step catalytic chemical process. It is an important chemical with a wide range of applications and end-uses. The SGICC’s research shows that methanol is priced similar to oil (i.e. much more profitable than regular natgas) and building plants in remote areas without pipeline infrastructure is relatively fast and effective. What’s not to like?…
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    USGS Spotlight on What Makes Good Frac Sand & Where to Find It

    According to the latest research by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), there’s a reason that 70% of frac sand, used in fracking, comes from Wisconsin and Minnesota. The silica (or sand) mined in those Great Plains states has the best characteristics to be used in fracking. But there are other places–even places in the Marcellus/Utica–that are being mined for silica used for fracking. In an article titled “Frac Sand Sources in the United States” published in the May 2015 issue of Rock Products magazine, USGS researchers describe what makes good frac sand and where, in the Lower 48 U.S. state, it’s being mined commercially. We’ve extracted out a section (below) on where silica is mined in the Marcellus/Utica region…
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    Report: Shale Drillers Find Ways to Profit by Lowering Costs

    The New York-based Manhattan Institute, a non-profit think tank with a mission “to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility,” says the shale revolution is only just getting started, contrary to the naysayers who believe the low price of oil and gas means the end of the revolution. In a new report titled “Shale 2.0: Technology and the Coming Big-Data Revolution in America’s Shale Oil Fields” (full copy below), Mark Mills, a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, writes that new technology is rapidly lowering the cost to produce shale energy and that drillers will be able to turn a profit on much lower oil and gas prices than previously thought…
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    Is Marcellus Production Heading for a Decline? EIA Says Yes

    A Reuters story is quoting analysis done by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (our favorite government agency) saying the EIA expects production in the Marcellus to remain flat for the next several years, and then begin a slow decline of 1% or so per year. The EIA prediction is based on the theory that natural gas prices in the Marcellus will remain really low–below $2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) through 2016, and the average price won’t hit $4/Mcf until 2020 or later. Private analysts (many of them) disagree and say production will continue to climb over the next several years as new pipelines come online and drillers “uncurtail” production that is idled right now. Who’s right?…
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    Research: Marcellus Frack Wastewater More Radioactive than Thought

    A study published in April reportedly concludes that fracking wastewater may be “more radioactive than researchers previously believed.” The study, titled “Understanding the Radioactive Ingrowth and Decay of Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials in the Environment: An Analysis of Produced Fluids from the Marcellus Shale” (full copy below) was published in the peer reviewed journal Environmental Health Perspectives. In a nutshell, the study says previous looks at the “you’ll glow in the dark, you’re all getting irradiated” issue has only looked at the presence of radium in frack wastewater. The researchers say that in order to judge the true radioactivity of frack wastewater you need to consider the isotopes that radium and radon breaks down into hours, days, weeks, months and years later–especially in closed tanks. And when you do, the authors say the level of radiation people (and the environment) is exposed to goes much higher that previously thought. Is this the smoking gun? Here’s MDN’s layman’s perspective on this new study…
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    Carnegie Mellon Study on Challenges of Water Mgmt in Fracking

    MDN spotted a newly published study in the journal Environmental Chemistry titled “Current perspective on produced water management challenges during hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas recovery.” The study, authored by two researchers from Carnegie Mellon University’s Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, takes a look at the impact of shale drilling on water resources–particularly the wastewater that results from fracking. MDN does not have a copy of the study. The abstract (below) doesn’t give us much to go on as to whether or not the authors believe fracking can be done safely. We also don’t know who funded the research. We offer you the summary and abstract (below) as a heads up that you can expect to read more about the study. That is, you can expect to read more about it unless the conclusion from the study says the challenges of fracking can be adequately managed. If that’s the finding, you can rely on mainstream media to totally ignore this study…
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    Moody’s Says O&G Company Default Rate in 2015 Going Higher

    On Tuesday Moody’s Investors Service released a new report titled “Oil and Gas: The Bad, Ugly and Good.” The 12-page, which will set you back $550 (or free if you’re company subscribes to Moody’s) says, in essence, because the price of oil is recovering slowly, instead of quickly, “weaker oil & gas issuers are at a much greater risk of default.” That is, some drillers in 2015 will either go under or get bought out. How many? A high level summary of the report (below) doesn’t say how many. What it does say is that of all the companies rated by Moody’s with a credit rating of B3 or lower (too much debt, not enough revenue), 15% of all the companies in that list are oil & gas companies. That’s up from 8% of all companies in the list a year ago. In other words, it’s getting worse for drillers (or exploration & production companies, as it’s more properly called)…
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    Drexel U Study Finds Little Air Pollution Near Marcellus Sites

    Real ScienceFinally some real, honest, independent research into the effects of shale drilling on air quality has just been published in the peer reviewed journal Environmental Science & Technology. Researchers from Drexel University published the results of air quality research titled “Atmosphere Emission Characterization of Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development Sites” (full copy below). Rather than focus solely on the release of methane as a global warming concern, the Drexel researchers looked at volatile organic compounds and other pollutants that are a true health concern for people living close to drilling sites and compressor stations. The researchers took measurements using a more accurate instrumentation/methodology than other studies have used and they collected 17 samples at 13 sites including wells, drilling rigs, compressor stations and processing areas. This kind of research is long overdue. What did they find?…
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    Penn State Defends Controversial Water Contamination Study

    Two weeks ago MDN covered the news that researchers from Penn State had published a study that reportedly showed a Marcellus Shale wastewater impoundment had leaked and some of the wastewater had found its way to a crack underground and traveled up to a mile and a half away to contaminate 3 water wells. This happened in 2010–five years ago (see Penn State Finds Chemical Migration in 3 PA Water Wells from 2010). It seemed at first blush that this was important research not because it proves “fracking contaminates water wells, told you so told you so” as anti-drillers claim–but because of the research tools innovated by the team to detect small amounts of chemicals that may in fact come from shale drilling. However, a few days later the news broke that one of the so-called researchers on the team had actually been a consultant and worked for the three families with the contaminated water wells, helping them in their lawsuit against the driller. When that little overlooked and omitted fact became known, embarrased mainstream news organizations did something we rarely see–they printed retractions/corrections noting the huge conflict of interest (see Reversal: Media Discredits Penn State Water Contamination Study). It gave Penn State a major black eye and damaged their credibility. So Penn State fired off their own mea culpa to defend the research study and the “facts” of how this kerfuffle came to be…
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    Sham Air Study: “Unsafe Exposure” for Those Near OH Frack Sites

    We frankly don’t believe the studies being published in so-called peer reviewed journals anymore. These journals have proven, repeatedly, that they are biased and frankly have prostituted themselves out to Big Green causes. It’s not science that gets published–it’s propaganda and advocacy that’s now published. Here’s the latest example: a so-called study of air samples near shale drilling in Carroll County, OH finds that air pollution from fracking operations is deadly. It sneaks in the “c” word–cancer–implying those who live close to fracking operations “may have” an increased chance of getting cancer. The published paper is titled “Impact of Natural Gas Extraction on PAH Levels in Ambient Air” published in Environmental Science & Technology and written by researchers from Oregon State University. Yes, Oregon–a long way from home, no? There was also a single researcher on the team from the University of Cincinnati. Here’s what the authors themselves admit about their “research”: They hung a “small number” of air samplers (23 total) in “non-random” locations, and had homeowner “volunteers” pack up the samples and ship them to Oregon for study. Was there any science involved at all here? If there was, we sure can’t find it…
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    Fracking Shale Will Spur Another 462K Plastics Jobs Next 10 Yrs

    Economists at the American Chemistry Council have just published a new report called “The Rising Competitive Advantage of U.S. Plastics” in which they state over the next 10 years U.S. jobs related to plastics manufacturing are expected to grow by 462,000. Why? Because of plentiful and affordable natural gas and natural gas liquids from shale. A decade ago the U.S. was one of the world’s highest cost producers of plastics. Today, because of shale, we’re one of the lowest cost producers. And it gets better every year. More and more manufacturing plants are relocating to the U.S. to take advantage of a cheap supply of plastics and low cost natural gas, made possible by shale energy. Plastics materials makers pay workers on average nearly $85,000 per year. Made possible by the miracle of fracking…
    Read More “Fracking Shale Will Spur Another 462K Plastics Jobs Next 10 Yrs”

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    Reversal: Media Discredits Penn State Water Contamination Study

    ripping mask offThe mask has been ripped off fractivist liars peddling what they pretend is science–and it’s been ripped off by mainstream media outlets including the Associated Press, USA Today, the International Business Times and (yes) The New York Times. Let us explain. Last week MDN brought you a story about a new research study that was ostensibly authored by Penn State researchers which found, using “non-traditional” methods of research, that wastewater leaking from an above-ground impoundment had migrated up to a mile and a half away and had contaminated three private water wells in PA–five years ago (see Penn State Finds Chemical Migration in 3 PA Water Wells from 2010). We told you how mainstream media, including the AP, had gone wild with excitement, endlessly repeating the story with the implication this is the smoking gun. The so-called research paper was published in the peer reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences–a gold standard among academic journals. It seems one of the authors of that paper lied…
    Read More “Reversal: Media Discredits Penn State Water Contamination Study”