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Weekly Shale Drilling Permits for PA, OH, WV: Jun 28-Jul 4
All three Marcellus/Utica states received permits to drill new shale wells last week. Pennsylvania issued 12 new permits, 7 of them in the northeast PA dry gas region and 5 in the southwest wet gas region. Ohio issued 3 new permits, all of them for the same driller in Carroll County. (The Ohio driller is brand new!) And West Virginia issued 6 new permits with 5 of the 6 going to Antero Resources.
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As temperatures rise across the U.S. and Americans flip on air conditioning which makes a big draw on the electric grid, stocks of natural gas in storage are decreasing. Natgas is used to generate electricity. When there’s less supply to meet existing or growing demand, economics 101 tells us the price of the good or service (in this case natural gas) goes up. And indeed that’s exactly what’s happening. As the price of natgas increases, so too does the share price for M-U drillers.
Each quarter NGI (Natural Gas Intelligence) runs the numbers and publishes a list of the 25 top natural gas marketers in the U.S. These are not necessarily the top 25 producers of natural gas (although in some cases they are), but the top 25 sellers (vendors, jobbers) of natural gas. NGI’s latest quarterly report shows overall the biggest sellers of natgas “lost ground” once again in 1Q21, which continues a two-year trend of year over year declines in the amount of gas sold.
RBN Energy is a fountain of great information about the oil and gas sector. Headed by industry icon Rusty Braziel, RBN tracks and reports on a number of O&G companies. One of the best features of their information service is tracking the performance of three groups of publicly-traded O&G companies: Oil-Weighted E&Ps, Diversified E&Ps, and Gas-Weighted E&Ps. That last group, the gas-focused companies, is a list of 10 E&Ps. Only two of the ten don’t have any operations in the Marcellus/Utica–all the rest do. RBN has just published a post about the financial performance in 1Q21 for all three groups. The numbers are very encouraging.
NGL (natural gas liquid) revenues for U.S. drillers soared in the first quarter of 2021–up 100% (i.e. doubled) over the same quarter in 2020, which was the quarter when COVID-19 began to seep into the public consciousness. In particular international demand for U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, or propane) helped propel NGL revenues higher in 1Q21. Guess which company posted the highest year-over-year increases for both NGL prices and revenues?
We’ve seen this routine play out dozens (maybe hundreds) of times over the years: Publicly-traded drilling companies float new IOUs (notes) to pay off older notes coming due. Why they never just pay them off and get out of debt we don’t know–that’s above our understanding of high finance. We just know this is the way it always has and likely always will work. Antero Resources, the third-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and the second-largest NGL producer, focused entirely on drilling in the M-U (mainly in West Virginia) is the latest to do the IOU refinancing thing.
Antero Resources, which drills almost exclusively in the West Virginia Marcellus/Utica, issued its first-quarter 2021 update yesterday. Antero is the third-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and the second-largest NGL producer. Big company. Important company. Antero is also one of the best hedgers (preselling production at a set price) in the business. During 1Q21 Antero averaged $4.03 per Mcfe (thousand cubic feet equivalent)–which was $1.34/Mcfe *above* the average NYMEX futures price in 1Q21.
One of the criticisms often leveled against the shale industry is that shale drillers have destroyed shareholder value (the price of company stock) over the past decade or so (see 
Analysts with S&P Global Market Intelligence say that shale gas drillers in the Marcellus/Utica region have finally learned their lesson and are sticking to their promise to keep capital spending restrained this year–even with an increase in the price of gas. Both spending and rig counts are predicted to stay low this year as drillers work on boosting free cash flow and improving company share price.
The experts at RBN Energy have, for the past five years, closely tracked the spending and production of a representative collection of 39 major public E&P (exploration & production) companies. RBN splits the companies tracked into three groups: Oil-Weighted E&Ps, Diversified E&Ps, and Gas-Weighted E&Ps. In a recent post, RBN reveals what those 39 companies have announced they will spend, and produce, in 2021. For eight of the nine gas-weighted E&Ps that produce gas in the Marcellus/Utica, the numbers show drillers will spend 15% less this year, but overall will produce 2% more natural gas than they did last year.