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M-U Capital Spending Down 19%, Production Up 4% in 2021
Although the price of natural gas has rocketed this year and cash flows for Marcellus/Utica drillers have ballooned, showering drillers with plenty of free cash flow, M-U drillers are spending less (19% less) on capital expenditures than they did in 2020. Production in the M-U is up slightly by 4% so far in 2021 vs. 2020. The experts at RBN Energy have dived into this latest twist in the shale story to help explain what’s going on and why.
Read More “M-U Capital Spending Down 19%, Production Up 4% in 2021”
Because of the soaring price of natural gas (see our companion post today), and because gas drillers have shown remarkable restraint and a real effort to scale back capital spending in an effort to generate free cash flow, investors have taken note and like what they’ve seen. The share price in most pure-play shale gas producers (mainly those in the M-U) posted double-digit gains in value over the past month.
Last week both Pennsylvania and West Virginia issued permits to drill new shale wells. Ohio remained skunked for a sixth week in a row. What’s going on in Ohio? Or rather, what isn’t going on there? PA issued 15 new shale permits. Not to be outdone, WV also issued 15 new shale permits.
During the second quarter (May through June), ten of the largest oil and gas producers covered by S&P Global Market Intelligence saw their NGL (natural gas liquids) revenues grow substantially from the same period a year ago. Those ten companies, half of them drillers in the Marcellus/Utica region, saw NGL prices increase from 104% to as high as 261%. The extra money from NGLs made what turned out to be a down quarter financial-wise (because of bad bets on hedges) better than it would have otherwise been.
Antero Resources, which drills almost exclusively in the West Virginia Marcellus/Utica, issued its second quarter 2021 update yesterday. Antero is the third-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and the second-largest NGL producer. Big company. Important company. Antero is one of the best hedgers (preselling production at a set price) in the business. However, like EQT (see today’s lead story), Antero fumbled with a derivatives bet in 2Q and ended up posting a $523 million loss for 2Q21, versus losing $463 million in 2Q20. On the positive side, Antero generated $105 million in free cash flow during 2Q21.
Expectations coming from Wall Street are that pure-play drillers, like many in the Marcellus/Utica, will show a turnaround in their financials for the second quarter of 2021. According to S&P, investors took drillers at their word last year that they won’t “drill baby drill” the way they have in years gone by. The stock prices of nearly all major M-U drillers have soared over the past 12 months as a result. The biggest turnaround has been Antero Resources. Its stock price is up nearly 400% over the past 12 months! Range Resources’ stock price is up 140%.
Each quarter NGI (Natural Gas Intelligence) runs the numbers and publishes a list of the 25 top natural gas marketers in the U.S. These are not necessarily the top 25 producers of natural gas (although in some cases they are), but the top 25 sellers (vendors, jobbers) of natural gas. NGI’s latest quarterly report shows overall the biggest sellers of natgas “lost ground” once again in 1Q21, which continues a two-year trend of year over year declines in the amount of gas sold.
RBN Energy is a fountain of great information about the oil and gas sector. Headed by industry icon Rusty Braziel, RBN tracks and reports on a number of O&G companies. One of the best features of their information service is tracking the performance of three groups of publicly-traded O&G companies: Oil-Weighted E&Ps, Diversified E&Ps, and Gas-Weighted E&Ps. That last group, the gas-focused companies, is a list of 10 E&Ps. Only two of the ten don’t have any operations in the Marcellus/Utica–all the rest do. RBN has just published a post about the financial performance in 1Q21 for all three groups. The numbers are very encouraging.
NGL (natural gas liquid) revenues for U.S. drillers soared in the first quarter of 2021–up 100% (i.e. doubled) over the same quarter in 2020, which was the quarter when COVID-19 began to seep into the public consciousness. In particular international demand for U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, or propane) helped propel NGL revenues higher in 1Q21. Guess which company posted the highest year-over-year increases for both NGL prices and revenues?