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Marcellus/Utica Drillers Post Strong Profits as Pandemic Recedes
RBN Energy is a fountain of great information about the oil and gas sector. Headed by industry icon Rusty Braziel, RBN tracks and reports on a number of O&G companies. One of the best features of their information service is tracking the performance of three groups of publicly-traded O&G companies: Oil-Weighted E&Ps, Diversified E&Ps, and Gas-Weighted E&Ps. That last group, the gas-focused companies, is a list of 10 E&Ps. Only two of the ten don’t have any operations in the Marcellus/Utica–all the rest do. RBN has just published a post about the financial performance in 1Q21 for all three groups. The numbers are very encouraging.
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All three M-U states received permits to drill new shale wells last week, but not a lot. In fact, it was one of the lowest overall number of permits issued in recent memory. Pennsylvania received just five new permits, and some of those were reissued permits. Ohio received four permits. And West Virginia just a single new permit.
NGL (natural gas liquid) revenues for U.S. drillers soared in the first quarter of 2021–up 100% (i.e. doubled) over the same quarter in 2020, which was the quarter when COVID-19 began to seep into the public consciousness. In particular international demand for U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, or propane) helped propel NGL revenues higher in 1Q21. Guess which company posted the highest year-over-year increases for both NGL prices and revenues?
We’ve seen this routine play out dozens (maybe hundreds) of times over the years: Publicly-traded drilling companies float new IOUs (notes) to pay off older notes coming due. Why they never just pay them off and get out of debt we don’t know–that’s above our understanding of high finance. We just know this is the way it always has and likely always will work. Antero Resources, the third-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and the second-largest NGL producer, focused entirely on drilling in the M-U (mainly in West Virginia) is the latest to do the IOU refinancing thing.
Antero Resources, which drills almost exclusively in the West Virginia Marcellus/Utica, issued its first-quarter 2021 update yesterday. Antero is the third-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and the second-largest NGL producer. Big company. Important company. Antero is also one of the best hedgers (preselling production at a set price) in the business. During 1Q21 Antero averaged $4.03 per Mcfe (thousand cubic feet equivalent)–which was $1.34/Mcfe *above* the average NYMEX futures price in 1Q21.
One of the criticisms often leveled against the shale industry is that shale drillers have destroyed shareholder value (the price of company stock) over the past decade or so (see 
Analysts with S&P Global Market Intelligence say that shale gas drillers in the Marcellus/Utica region have finally learned their lesson and are sticking to their promise to keep capital spending restrained this year–even with an increase in the price of gas. Both spending and rig counts are predicted to stay low this year as drillers work on boosting free cash flow and improving company share price.
The experts at RBN Energy have, for the past five years, closely tracked the spending and production of a representative collection of 39 major public E&P (exploration & production) companies. RBN splits the companies tracked into three groups: Oil-Weighted E&Ps, Diversified E&Ps, and Gas-Weighted E&Ps. In a recent post, RBN reveals what those 39 companies have announced they will spend, and produce, in 2021. For eight of the nine gas-weighted E&Ps that produce gas in the Marcellus/Utica, the numbers show drillers will spend 15% less this year, but overall will produce 2% more natural gas than they did last year.
Who are the biggest natural gas sellers in the U.S.? You might be surprised to learn that the biggest *sellers* are not necessarily the biggest *producers* of natural gas. Oh, you might recognize some of the names of the top sellers (BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips). But others might be more of a mystery (Macquarie, Tenaska, Sequent, and J. Aron & Co.). Would it surprise you to learn that BP (i.e. British Petroleum) is the #1 seller of natural gas in the U.S. and has been for many years?
We’ve noticed a flurry of new “notes” (i.e. bonds) being offered by Marcellus/Utica companies. We call notes/bonds IOUs. Typically a company will issue new notes (a promise to pay in the future, with interest) in order to retire older notes coming due. Notes are a form of self-financing by using debt instead of issuing new shares of stock (diluting existing shares). M-U drillers Range Resources and Antero Resources both quickly sold out of their recent note offerings at higher prices than originally requested. According to S&P analysts, the Range and Antero fast sellout is proof that credit is loosening for drillers in the M-U and in other shale plays.