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Weekly Shale Drilling Permits for PA, OH, WV: May 10-16
All three M-U states received permits to drill new shale wells last week. Pennsylvania received a sizable 14 new permits (after receiving 18 permits the previous week). The majority of those permits were for wells on three pads in northeastern PA. Ohio received 3 new permits last week all in one county (Greene) for one driller (Eclipse, now owned by Southwestern Energy) on one well pad. And West Virginia received a sizable 13 new permits with 9 of them split between two well pads for different drillers (Northeast Natural Energy and Tug Hill).
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We’ve seen this routine play out dozens (maybe hundreds) of times over the years: Publicly-traded drilling companies float new IOUs (notes) to pay off older notes coming due. Why they never just pay them off and get out of debt we don’t know–that’s above our understanding of high finance. We just know this is the way it always has and likely always will work. Antero Resources, the third-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and the second-largest NGL producer, focused entirely on drilling in the M-U (mainly in West Virginia) is the latest to do the IOU refinancing thing.
Antero Resources, which drills almost exclusively in the West Virginia Marcellus/Utica, issued its first-quarter 2021 update yesterday. Antero is the third-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and the second-largest NGL producer. Big company. Important company. Antero is also one of the best hedgers (preselling production at a set price) in the business. During 1Q21 Antero averaged $4.03 per Mcfe (thousand cubic feet equivalent)–which was $1.34/Mcfe *above* the average NYMEX futures price in 1Q21.
One of the criticisms often leveled against the shale industry is that shale drillers have destroyed shareholder value (the price of company stock) over the past decade or so (see 
Analysts with S&P Global Market Intelligence say that shale gas drillers in the Marcellus/Utica region have finally learned their lesson and are sticking to their promise to keep capital spending restrained this year–even with an increase in the price of gas. Both spending and rig counts are predicted to stay low this year as drillers work on boosting free cash flow and improving company share price.
The experts at RBN Energy have, for the past five years, closely tracked the spending and production of a representative collection of 39 major public E&P (exploration & production) companies. RBN splits the companies tracked into three groups: Oil-Weighted E&Ps, Diversified E&Ps, and Gas-Weighted E&Ps. In a recent post, RBN reveals what those 39 companies have announced they will spend, and produce, in 2021. For eight of the nine gas-weighted E&Ps that produce gas in the Marcellus/Utica, the numbers show drillers will spend 15% less this year, but overall will produce 2% more natural gas than they did last year.
Who are the biggest natural gas sellers in the U.S.? You might be surprised to learn that the biggest *sellers* are not necessarily the biggest *producers* of natural gas. Oh, you might recognize some of the names of the top sellers (BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips). But others might be more of a mystery (Macquarie, Tenaska, Sequent, and J. Aron & Co.). Would it surprise you to learn that BP (i.e. British Petroleum) is the #1 seller of natural gas in the U.S. and has been for many years?
We’ve noticed a flurry of new “notes” (i.e. bonds) being offered by Marcellus/Utica companies. We call notes/bonds IOUs. Typically a company will issue new notes (a promise to pay in the future, with interest) in order to retire older notes coming due. Notes are a form of self-financing by using debt instead of issuing new shares of stock (diluting existing shares). M-U drillers Range Resources and Antero Resources both quickly sold out of their recent note offerings at higher prices than originally requested. According to S&P analysts, the Range and Antero fast sellout is proof that credit is loosening for drillers in the M-U and in other shale plays.
The Marcellus/Utica is the #1 natural gas producing play in the country. Last month the M-U region produced 33.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s December Drilling Productivity Report (see 
As we entered 2020, the stock price for most Marcellus/Utica drillers was near or even at the lowest it had ever been (see