By the Numbers – Revenue & Profitability for M-U Drillers
The expert analysts at RBN Energy have just published their “fourth and final” in a series of posts looking in detail at E&Ps (exploration & production companies, or “drillers”). One of the groups of E&Ps they examine are “gas-weighted” E&Ps–or drillers who mostly extract natural gas. In looking through the list, you immediately realize every one of them has operations in the Marcellus and/or Utica Shale region. Yes, a few also have operations in other plays, but they all have at least some operations here. The real value in the article is an accompanying spreadsheet comparing various financial metrics (apples to apples)–things like total revenue, lifting costs, production costs, and “pre-tax income,” meaning profitability. How do our drillers compare with each other?
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Antero Resources, one of the biggest drillers in the Marcellus/Utica, is the latest in a string of companies to shed its master limited partnership (MLP) structure. Antero uses an MLP for two different pipeline subsidiaries. The company announced yesterday that one of the subsidiaries will buy out the other, and then convert the merged entity into a corporation. The move simplifies Antero’s midstream operations. Here’s the details.
We’re not quite sure how to tackle this story as there are so many aspects to it. Let’s start here: Two years ago lawsuits filed by some 200 West Virginia residents against Antero Resources were combined into a class action lawsuit. The lawsuits are called “nuisance” lawsuits because, according to the plantiffs, Antero is a nuisance to them (truck traffic, noise, lights at night, etc.). That massive class action lawsuit, filed in early 2016, is about to be heard by the WV Supreme Court–a court in disarray after all of its sitting justices were impeached and removed.
The Pareto Principle is alive and well in the Buckeye State. You may know it as the 80/20 rule, or in this case, the 75/25 rule. The rule that states roughly 80% of the results come from 20% of the effort. Last week MDN brought you the latest update from the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources–their second quarter 2018 report showing all production coming from the Ohio Utica Shale (see 
We finally come down to the final two lateral pipelines for Rover. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) played a game of hardball with Energy Transfer (ET) over the Rover Pipeline. For months FERC refused to allow four Rover laterals–feeder pipelines to shuttle gas from where it’s produced into the main Rover pipeline–to start up (see 
Antero Resources is seriously in love with West Virginia. Antero is headquartered in Denver, CO but is totally focused on drilling for natural gas, NGLs and oil in the Marcellus/Utica. Antero owns over 484,000 net acres in the southwestern portion of the Marcellus Shale, and over 137,000 net acres in the core of the Utica Shale. Most of their acreage is in WV. Of the $1.3 billion the company spent last year, and plans to spend again this year, around $1 billion (per year) is spent on drilling in WV–close to 80%. Over the next five years, Antero says it will invest $6 billion in the Mountain State. That’s some serious love! As the technology gets better, it takes less time to drill. Antero said it used to take 30 days to drill an 8,000-foot well. Today? They can do it in one day. One of the secrets to Antero’s success in WV is their new Clearwater facility that recycles 98% of the frack wastewater (flowback and produced water) coming from Antero’s wells. Below is an article in which Antero gushes about their love (and future plans) for WV…
Lots of news coming out of Antero Resources, one of the Marcellus/Utica’s biggest (and best) drillers. Antero issued its fourth quarter and full year 2017 update, along with a statement about the company’s proved reserves, earlier this week. Perhaps the biggest news is that after losing $849 million in 2016, net income for Antero in 2017 was $615 million–a $1.4 billion swing (to the good) over the course of a single year! Average daily production in 2017 was 2.25 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d)–a 22% increase over 2016. Zooming in on just the fourth quarter, Antero completed and placed on line 28 Marcellus and 10 Utica wells. Antero said they are getting into long laterals. Of the Marcellus wells drilled in 4Q17, nine had laterals over 12,000 feet, with two of those exceeding 14,000 feet in length (over 2.5 miles horizontally underground). Even with long laterals, Antero decreased the average number of days it takes to drill a well–from 15 to 12 (20% less). They also upped the amount of sand they use in fracking by 23%–to over 2,000 pounds of sand per foot. At the end of 2017, Antero estimates it had 17.3 trillion cubic feet equivalent of natural gas sitting in the ground that can be extracted using today’s technology at today’s prices (“proved reserves”). That 17.3 Tcfe is 12% higher than at the end of 2016. Below is the whole enchilada–two updates from Antero, excerpts from the analyst phone call, and the latest and greatest PowerPoint presentation…
Our lead story today is about Gulfport Energy which highlights some exciting news: This year (in 2018) Gulfport will fund their entire drilling budget out of the cash flow the company generates from selling gas/oil/NGLs (see Gulfport Energy Continues Focus on Utica for 2018, No Borrowing). Thing is, Gulfport isn’t the only Marcellus/Utica driller to advertise the fact that this year they are “living within their means” and not borrowing. Others include Range Resources, EQT and Antero Resources. Wow! We’re finally profitable!! Or are we? MDN spotted some analysis by a hedge fund manager. Writing on the Seeking Alpha investor’s website, Josh Young says (in our words) “hold on a minute” with respect to M-U drillers appearing to be able to grow production without borrowing. Why is Josh not convinced with this good news? Because when you dig deeper into the numbers, you find that “organic growth within cash flow is further from reach” because drillers are using DUCs to spend less on drilling, and grow production, than they otherwise would be. A DUC is a Drilled but UnCompleted well. Many times drillers will drill the initial hole in the ground, but then not “complete” (or frack) the well. Why do that? For a variety of reasons. The biggest reason is usually because the commodity price of gas (or oil, depending on the well) is not favorable. Rather than lose the lease (an expensive proposition), drillers will begin the process by drilling, and then leaving, the well, returning later to complete it when prices go up again. Josh’s thesis is that by using DUC inventory drillers aren’t really funding the entire budget from current year cash flow, because some of the money was spent in a previous year to drill the well. They are, in essence, still borrowing–from a different year. Josh estimates an average of 20% of the “new” wells coming online are DUCs and not truly new wells funded by current year dollars–meaning these companies aren’t as “profitable” as they may seem. Does he have a point? Is it all just financial mumbo jumbo? You decide…
The Marcellus/Utica Shale industry is changing underneath our feet–literally! Last time we checked, most well pads in the Marcellus/Utica sported an average of maybe 3-4 wells–with a dozen wells on a pad being “big.” Something has changed, dramatically, in the gas fields of PA, OH and WV. The “new normal” are supersized well pads–holding as many as (gasp) 40 wells! We hasten to add no such pad yet exists–a pad with 40 wells drilled from it. However, there is an EQT well pad in Allegheny County (near Pittsburgh) with 38 wells permitted (9 of which have been drilled so far). EQT says it now averages drilling 17-18 wells per pad. Antero Resources is drilling an average of 10 wells per pad–up from 3-4 “just a few years ago.” The trend now is more wells per pad, and longer laterals–meaning fewer well pads overall. That’s good for the environment, and good for the bottom line (less money spent pushing dirt around developing pads). Here’s an update on the trend to supersize well pads in the Marcellus/Utica…