Graph Showing NatGas Rig Count vs NatGas Price
In a Reuters news story about the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest report showing natural gas production fell slightly in February, we get the following graphic which MDN found interesting. It shows the Baker Hughes rig count (number of natural gas drilling rigs) plotted as one line, with the second plotted line representing natural gas futures prices. The natural gas rig count—drilling rigs dedicated to drilling for natural gas in the lower 48 states—is now at a 10-year low. The count as of last Friday was 613, the lowest it’s been since April 2002. Gas prices are also at 10-year lows.
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Yesterday the commodity price of natural gas hit a 10-year low, $1.984 per 1,000 cubic feet. There will be plenty of stories in the press about it. However, in one of those stories, we get this interesting and helpful information about the price, as well as the areas producing the most natural gas and the drillers producing it:
How low might the commodity price of natural gas go before drillers really will quit drilling and wait for the price to go up? We’ll give you “the magic number” in a moment. But first, the (rather sketchy) rationale for how we calculate that number.
The talk coming from the largest drillers in the Marcellus Shale is that they will scale back drilling activities in the dry (methane only) portions of the Marcellus Shale play and instead focus on the wet (liquids-rich) portion.