Commodity Price

Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues

Marcellus NatGas Production Predicted to Increase 44% by 2014
January 24, 2013January 24, 2013

The perennial topic of conversation around the natural gas water cooler is, “How much supply will there be in the next X timeframe, and how will that affect the price of natural gas?”

Financial advisory firm Raymond James is the latest to weigh in with their thinking on the topic, and it’s no surprise the Marcellus Shale figures big in their thinking about how much supply is coming down the pipeline, and how prices will be affected:

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Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Research | Statewide PA | Statewide WV | West Virginia

Marcellus Shale’s Prominent Role in Latest EIA Outlook
January 9, 2013January 9, 2013

Yesterday the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which includes the outlook for natural gas. EIA has some of the best and brightest that crunch the numbers, so when they issue their reports, people pay attention. EIA reports are not exactly a crystal ball to predict the future—but they’re darned close.

The Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia is mentioned prominently in this update, including its predicted role in boosting overall natural gas production this year. Below is the natural gas portion of the STEO, with predictions for prices, production and consumption in 2013:

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Commodity Price | Crude Oil | Economic Impact | Exporting | Industrywide Issues | NGLs

Rusty Braziel Sketches Scenarios for U.S. NGL/Crude Prices
December 5, 2012December 5, 2012

Russell (“Rusty”) Braziel is one of the country’s most respected authorities on energy information and markets. He’s the former vice president of BENTEK Energy (bought out by Platts in 2010). He speaks, he writes, and he’s now President & Principal Consultant at RBN Energy, LLC.

Rusty presented at the LDC NGL (natural gas liquids) Forum in San Antonio yesterday, and he had some interesting things to say about the future of NGL and crude oil prices in the U.S. When Rusty speaks, people listen.

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Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues | M&A

3Q12 M&A Deals in the Marcellus Fall to Zero
November 27, 2012November 27, 2012

For the past five years one of the key indicators that the Marcellus Shale has been red hot is the level of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity among energy companies. That is, companies doing deals to work together, or to buy outright, leased acreage, drilling operations or pipelines and other infrastructure. For the first time in several years, there was no significant M&A activity for an entire 3-month period (third quarter 2012) in the Marcellus, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers, a consulting and research firm that tracks it.

What, exactly, does that mean?

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Commodity Price | Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues | Regulation

Deloitte Survey: NatGas Price >$3 in 2013, Oil Price <$100
November 15, 2012November 15, 2012

Consulting firm Deloitte recently completed a survey of 250 oil and gas professionals on their expert opinions about where they believe the energy industry is headed in the near and long-term. Among their findings: The U.S. will soon become completely energy self-sufficient for natural gas, but we’ll always need to import at least some oil.

Looking at 2013, a majority of those surveyed (60%) believe the commodity price of natural gas will average more than $3 per million Btus for the year, and a majority (59%) think crude oil will stay below $100 per barrel next year. Attitudes about regulation of fracking is also interesting: 49% think existing regulations of fracking is “just right” or “on track.”

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BP | Commodity Price | Energy Companies | Ethane | Industrywide Issues | NGLs

Industry Expert Says NGL Prices are Headed Down
November 15, 2012November 15, 2012

Dawn Constantin, head of partnerships and analytics at BP plc, spoke at the LDC Gas Forum in Toronto earlier this week about what the future holds for the natural gas liquids (NGLs) market. Her analysis? Drillers who thought NGLs (wet gas) were a safe harbor against the low price of methane (dry gas) may not find it so safe after all. Why? Simple economics of supply and demand. Demand for NGLs is not keeping up with the flood of supply coming from places like the Marcellus and Utica Shale.

Constantin said there now exists downward pressure on the price of NGLs, just like there is for dry gas:

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Anti-Drilling/Fossil Fuel | Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues

Bloomberg Says NatGas Producers “Killing” Gas Price Rally
November 14, 2012November 14, 2012

It’s been at least two weeks without a natural gas hit piece from Bloomberg (they had to leave the natgas topic alone for a few weeks to get their candidate re-elected)…must be time for another smear. Yep, here it is: “Gas Prices Doomed to Stay Low as Producers Pump Faster.” The premise is that because gas prices have started to climb again, the capitalistic, selfish energy companies are greedily turning back on “shut-in” wells and hooking up previously drilled wells and the gas is now flowing so darned much, it’s doomed gas prices to stay low, like, forever.

Never mind that next week Bloomberg will run another story that says these same energy companies are vastly overstating how much shale gas really exists and supplies will run out in a few years—that we don’t really have 100 or more years of supplies as most experts believe. Being a bit truth-challenged has never bothered Bloomberg, or Reuters or the AP for that matter. They have a template, a narrative—and the “facts” will be bent, molded and shaped to fit it.

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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues

Energy Industry Expert Says Shale Gas Will Last <10 Years
November 9, 2012November 9, 2012

Here’s a contrary view if ever we’ve seen one: Bill Powers, editor and writer of the Powers Energy Investor newsletter and someone who has sat on the board of three oil and gas companies and has been an active investor for 25 years, says shale gas supplies in the U.S. have been vastly overhyped. Over the past three years Powers researched and next spring will publish a new book called: Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth. In the book he argues that contrary to the popular belief that the U.S. has a 100-year supply of natural gas due to shale gas fracking, he believes it’s more on the order of 5-7 years. Say what??

Powers was interviewed by The Energy Report and the interview was posted on the Seeking Alpha website. Here’s a brief excerpt:

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Anadarko | Commodity Price | Energy Companies | Industrywide Issues

Anadarko: Gas Must be $4 Mcf Before More Marcellus Drilling
November 1, 2012November 1, 2012

An interesting comment yesterday from Anadarko Petroleum’s CEO about where price levels for natural gas have to be before he’s willing to commit more money for dry gas drilling. The magic number for Anadarko is $5 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Equally interesting was a comment by the VP of E&P that for the Marcellus Shale, the magic number is $4 per Mcf—because drilling in the Marcellus costs less than other plays. The current price of natural gas on the Nymex is currently $3.70 (as of this morning).

Until prices improve, Anadarko will stick to drilling in wet gas areas and not invest in Marcellus drilling. Here’s what Anadarko’s executives said yesterday on an earnings call:

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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Wyoming County (PA)

Oklahoma Manufacturer Buys Interest in PA Marcellus Wells
November 1, 2012November 1, 2012

This is a fascinating (to MDN) story about where the industry and economics for shale gas drilling may be heading. Yesterday LSB Industries, an Oklahoma City chemical (and equipment) manufacturer that depends on natural gas as its raw materials, announced they have purchased ownership interest in 14 producing natural gas wells, 7 soon-to-be producing wells and 36 yet-to-drilled wells in the Marcellus Shale, in Wyoming County, PA.

Why would a manufacturing company invest in natural gas wells? As a hedge against natural gas prices going higher—which they believe is going to happen relatively soon. They want a piece of the action that supplies their company with a key raw material, to keep their future costs down. Smart.

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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues | Pipelines

Marcellus May Produce Additional 5Bcf/d of Gas in Next 14 Mo
October 31, 2012October 31, 2012

A blogger on the Seeking Alpha website says the Marcellus is “a ticking time bomb” waiting to “explode” with a tremendous amount of new natural gas production that will flood into the U.S. marketplace over the next 1-2 years. How much new gas? Blogger David White makes a compelling case he believes an additional 5 billion cubic feet of new natural gas will flow—from just the Marcellus Shale region—by the end of 2013.

Here’s his reasoning:

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Commodity Price | Energy Companies | Equinor/Statoil | Exporting | Industrywide Issues | Pipelines

Statoil Starts Shipping NatGas to Canada, Plans NYC Pipeline
October 30, 2012October 30, 2012

In a bid to get more money for its natural gas, Statoil, a Norwegian company with major operations in the Marcellus Shale, said late last week they will start shipping gas to Canada effective Nov. 1. They also plan to build a new natural gas pipeline to Manhattan, NY.

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Beaver County | Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Energy Companies | Ethane | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Processing Plants | Shell | Statewide PA

Low NatGas Price Will Benefit Shell’s Ethane Cracker Plant
October 24, 2012October 24, 2012

The low price of natural gas may not be good for drillers, but it’s great for manufacturing companies who power their plants with it. The fact that manufacturers are increasingly converting to natural gas to power their operations, and relocating to areas with an abundant supply of low priced gas—like Pennsylvania—is a good thing for Shell and their proposed ethane cracker plant in Beaver County, PA. Why?

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Chesapeake Energy | Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Energy Companies | Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues

NYT Now Says There’s Too Much Natural Gas, Drillers to Blame
October 22, 2012October 22, 2012

The New York Times is a bit schizophrenic these days. It’s hard to keep track of which alternate reality they operate in. For the longest time, we’ve heard from the Times how shale drilling is just a Ponzi scheme a la Bernie Madoff—a fraud to get investors to dump billions into energy companies but with only a teeny tiny bit of gas in the ground (“proven reserves”) to get out (see this MDN story). Of course that contention is patently false as proven by the overwhelming production and inventories we now have from shale gas.

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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues | Pipelines

S&P Report: The Marcellus Shale is a Game-Changer
October 17, 2012October 17, 2012

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s yesterday issued an important new report on the Marcellus Shale and the key role it’s playing in the United States’ natural gas and larger energy picture. Titled “How The Marcellus Shale Is Changing The Dynamics Of The U.S. Energy Industry,” there’s a lot of great information in this report. For example: the report lists the Top 15 Marcellus Shale producers, with estimates of how much shale gas they produce (as of fourth quarter 2011). It also discusses how and why the Marcellus is one of the most cost-effective plays in the U.S. for producers, and why they can make money in the Marcellus at much lower commodity prices for gas than in other plays. It contains a complete list of pending and planned pipeline projects in the Marcellus, including ethane pipelines. And more!

MDN is still reading and digesting the report and will bring you select sections and highlights over the next few days. In the meantime, you can view the entire report below now (highly recommended):

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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues

Stone Fox Capital: Rig Count Means NatGas Shortages Coming
October 17, 2012October 17, 2012

Let’s take a deep dive into the “weeds” of the drilling industry, shall we? A few days ago MDN highlighted yet another excellent analysis (on rig counts) by Seeking Alpha blogger Richard Zeits, from Zeits Energy Analytics (see this MDN story). The big news from that story is Zeits’ view about the current and future levels of drilling rigs in dry vs. wet gas areas.

A new, somewhat contrary (to Zeits’) viewpoint has emerged on Seeking Alpha from Stone Fox Capital Advisors expressing concern and alarm over the relatively low level of drilling rigs. They believe the current and forecasted number of drilling rigs for oil means the number of rigs available for natural gas drilling is so low it will mean shortages of natgas rigs, meaning a bottleneck for new drilling and eventually lower supplies and higher prices for natural gas.

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