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IHS Research Predicts Gas Price will Stay at $4-$5/Mcf Until 2035
January 20, 2014January 20, 2014

An interesting new report is out from IHS. Researchers with IHS predict that the price of natural gas, because of the flood of new shale gas coming into the market, will stay somewhere between $4-$5 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) at the benchmark Henry Hub for the long-term–like until 2035, at least.

The report, titled “Fueling the Future with Natural Gas: Bringing It Home” (25-page executive summary embedded below) says shale gas can be profitably produced at $4/Mcf or less. One of many conclusions from their research: “…the North American natural gas resource base can accommodate significant increases in demand without requiring a significantly higher price to elicit new supply.” Translation: A LOT more shale drilling just ahead, even with relatively “low” prices. Here’s another fascinating conclusion from the study…
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Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues

The Wild Ride for NatGas Prices in the Northeast
January 7, 2014January 7, 2014

The price that utility companies and large users of natural gas pay at the pipeline is a lot higher than the price drillers sell it for. Like, multiples higher. However, the pipeline sale price does influence how much drillers will receive. Natural gas is a commodity, and like all commodity markets, the price of gas depends on supply and demand. Since gas is sold at hundreds of market points along transmission pipelines across the country, there are hundreds of different, tiny “markets” of supply and demand.

Platts issued an interesting press release/article yesterday about the yo-yoing price of gas right now due to the extreme cold in the northeast and Midwest. While some Marcellus gas is sold by drillers for under $3 per thousand cubic feet (or Mcf, which is the same unit as one million Btus, or MMBtu), some of that same gas is being purchased down the pipeline for upward of $60 per Mcf (or MMBtu)! The current situation is an extreme price spike and it won’t last, but it illustrates just how widely prices can swing in the natgas market…
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CNG/LNG | Commodity Price | Ethane | Exporting | Industrywide Issues | NGLs

RBN Energy’s 2014 Predictions & the Marcellus Connection
January 6, 2014January 6, 2014

RBN Energy, headed by energy industry luminary Rusty Braziel (formerly an executive with Bentek and veteran of several large oil and gas companies), recently proffered its Top Ten Energy Prognostications for 2014. RBN is based in Houston, but a number of this year’s predictions from RBN are either directly or indirectly related to the Marcellus and Utica Shale, which tells you the stunning impact our northeast energy market is having on the world energy market.

Below is the abbreviated list of RBN’s “top 10” predictions for 2014–the Chinese Year of the Horse. Bear in mind what Rusty says, even as a prognostication, most (including MDN) believe as the gospel truth…
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About MDN | Anti-Drilling/Fossil Fuel | Commodity Price | Crude Oil | Economic Impact | Ethane | Health Impacts | Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues | Litigation | MDN Resources | NGLs | Pipelines | Regulation

MDN’s Top 10 Most Important Stories of 2013 – Our View
December 31, 2013December 31, 2013

Yes it’s trite and certainly overdone, but hey, it’s the last day of 2013 and a slow news day. So MDN editor Jim Willis thought he would put together a list of what he considered to be the top 10 Marcellus and Utica Shale stories from 2013. It’s a look into what we believe, based on your input and feedback, to be the most relevant and important stories from this year. Enjoy!…
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Commodity Price | Energy Services | Industrywide Issues | Pipelines | Spectra Energy

NYC’s Energy Infrastructure “Transformed,” Boston’s is Not – Why?
December 6, 2013December 6, 2013

We find it amusing that mainstream media is so narcissistic and navel-gazing that if a story doesn’t originate from NYC/DC media axis, it’s as if the story never existed. Case in point: The Atlantic magazine trumpets “no one noticed” that last month a whole lot more natural gas started flowing to New York City because of a new $1.2 billion pipeline from Spectra Energy connecting NJ to NY. Uh, excuse us Atlantic, but MDN noticed. We’ve been covering this story for the past two years! We told readers back on Oct. 21 that Spectra was opening the valves on an additional 800 million cubic feet of mostly cheap Marcellus Shale gas per day (see Spectra NJ-NY Marcellus Gas Pipeline Goes Online Nov. 1).

It may take a few months, but we’re glad to see some mainstream media outlets finally, grudgingly, report the good news. However, there are other stories the media continues to ignore, like why Boston will continue to pay high prices for their natural gas even though there’s plenty of cheap gas to be had. There’s a pretty simple explanation…
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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues | New York | Statewide NY

Big News: Bloomberg Writes Positive Marcellus Shale Article!
November 27, 2013November 27, 2013

Whenever we start reading a Bloomberg article about the Marcellus Shale, shale gas drilling in general, or fracking, we just know how skewed to the anti-drilling side of the ledger the story will be. So imagine our surprise when we read an article that actually reports (gasp!) the truth about the Marcellus Shale. Even though Bloomberg usually tells us the low price of natural gas can’t last, the whole shale gas thing is a house of cards waiting to collapse, drillers are trying to hoodwink investors, blah blah blah–this time even Bloomberg can’t ignore the fact that natural gas being piped into New York City is selling below the price of the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana–and likely will for years to come. Thanks to the Marcellus.

The Bloomberg article does a good job of giving the big picture with respect to gas prices and how drilling has become more efficient, how infrastructure (pipelines) are helping to get all that gas to market (abundance of supply equals lower prices), and predicting what’s coming next. At the end of the article is an obligatory few sentences from anti-drillers about how shale drilling will poison all of our water and make farms uninhabitable. Well, it is Bloomberg after all. But on balance, this is a good article and worth your time to read. The article begins this way…
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Commodity Price | Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G) | Energy Companies | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Susquehanna County

Cabot O&G: Marcellus Cost Structure Goes Through the…Floor!
November 25, 2013November 25, 2013

Cabot Oil & Gas continues to impress and astonish the drilling industry. MDN has written many times before about Cabot’s ability to spin “gold” (profits) from “hay” (low cost price environment). Cabot recently presented at a pair of “global energy conferences” arranged by investment firms Jeffries & Co. and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. We have the slide deck from each (which is pretty much identical) and we’ve embedded it below. You’ll want to review it if you have an interest in the Marcellus Shale.

One of the startling pieces of information we glean from it: Starting in 2009 Cabot’s cost to drill and produce gas was $2.47 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). By 2013, that number had dropped to an average $1.37/Mcf. Next year, in 2014, Cabot says their Marcellus per unit cash cost, the cost of drilling and producing, will be around…
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Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues

How Low Can You Go? Northeast NatGas Prices Dip Below Henry Hub
October 14, 2013October 14, 2013

In what increasingly appears to be a game of limbo, or “how low can you go,” natural gas prices in the northeastern part of the U.S. keep going down. In a reversal of past trends, many of the market points in the northeast are beginning to slip below the benchmark Henry Hub market point price in Louisiana.

What does it mean? It means residents in one of the most populous areas of the country, the northeastern U.S., are now paying less for natural gas than they did just a few years ago because the gas they are using now is produced nearby in the Marcellus and increasingly in the Utica Shale region. There is so much locally produced shale gas, it’s causing big changes in the natgas marketplace, as noted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)…
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Commodity Price | Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G) | Energy Companies | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Susquehanna County

The Cabot O&G Marcellus Rocketship – To the Moon!
October 4, 2013October 4, 2013

Cabot Oil & Gas, one of our favorite Marcellus drillers, continues to amaze and astound just about everyone. Last Friday (a week ago) the company issued a new “guidance” or “this is our best, educated guess” as to how much natural gas production the company will end up producing for 2013, and how much they believe it will grow in 2014. Given Cabot is already the number one natural gas producer in PA and the first member of what MDN calls the “billion cubic feet per day” club (see Who’s a Member of the Marcellus “1 Bcf/d” Club?), it’s amazing that in 2014 they predict production will be up another 30-50% over this year. Wow!

Something just as startling and no doubt the envy of all their competitors, Cabot CEO Dan Dinges tips their hand as to what the breakeven price is at which the company starts to make money. It’s a LOT lower than even we thought is was…
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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues

Potential New Market for Marcellus/Utica Gas: LNG for Use in U.S.
September 19, 2013

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) isn’t just for exporting to other countries. LNG is increasingly used right here at home, in the U.S. GDF SUEZ Gas has provided LNG to the northeastern U.S. for the past 40 years for use in ships, railroad locomotives, long-haul trucks, and heating/power generation. Earlier this week GDF SUEZ announced a sort of “open season” for bids on a massive increase in their capacity to provide more LNG in the northeast. They call it the advanceLNG Project.

The potential good news for producers of Marcellus and Utica Shale gas is that if the advanceLNG Project moves forward, it will need lots of natural gas from the region to feed it. advanceLNG is a potentially lucrative new market for the northeast’s abundant supplies of natgas…
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Chesapeake Energy | Commodity Price | Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G) | Energy Companies | EQT Corp | Industrywide Issues | Range Resources Corp

Production from 4 Marcellus Drillers Keeps U.S. NatGas Prices Low
September 19, 2013September 19, 2013

An article on the investor website The Motley Fool does a good job of putting into context the enormous importance of the Marcellus Shale. According to the article, even though production from other major U.S. shale plays like the Haynesville has fallen in recent years, Marcellus production is up so dramatically it single-handedly keeps the price of natural gas low in this country.

The article (read it below) also gives a quick roundup of four key drillers driving the success of the Marcellus…
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Commodity Price | Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues

Former DOE Sec. Chu: Have Your (Fracking) Cake & Eat it Too!
September 18, 2013September 18, 2013

Steven Chu, former Secretary of Energy in the Obama administration (from 2009-2013) was the keynote speaker at America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA) energy summit in Columbus, OH this week. Speaking yesterday to the assembled group of pro-drillers, Chu said fracking can be done safely. According to Chu, it’s possible to “have your cake and eat it too.” That is, fracking is safe and it provides inexpensive energy.

Chu also predicted the price of natural gas for the next 20 years (brave man)…
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Commodity Price | Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G) | Energy Companies | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Research | Susquehanna County

At What Mmcf Price Do Shale Drillers Make Money?
August 8, 2013August 8, 2013

Ken Medlock, senior director of Rice University’s Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies and a team of Rice researchers recently performed a study of shale drilling economics. One of the questions they looked at: At what price per million cubic feet (or Mmcf) must a driller sell the gas in order to at least break even and not lose money? They have some interesting findings…
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Carrizo Oil & Gas | Commodity Price | Energy Companies | Industrywide Issues

Carrizo Oil & Gas 2Q13: Scaling Back in the Marcellus…for Now
August 7, 2013August 7, 2013

Carrizo Oil & Gas is a Houston-based driller that concentrates on U.S. shale plays. They have active drilling operations in the Eagle Ford and Barnett (TX), the Niobrara (CO), and in both the Marcellus and Utica Shale region in the northeast (PA & OH). In reviewing today’s Carrizo 2Q13 update, it’s obvious the company has decided to scale back in the Marcellus/Utica for now, in favor of putting their effort into the other plays. Carrizo’s average daily gas production in the Marcellus decreased from 38 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) in 1Q13 to 33.9 Mmcf/d in 2Q13. Why? They’ve “shut-in” a number of their wells in Wyoming County, PA, waiting for the price of Marcellus gas to go up before they sell more.

Gas prices in the very-productive Marcellus are typically some of the lowest in the country. More supply than demand at this point. For example, yesterday the average sale price for natural gas along pipelines in the northeast Marcellus was $1.89 Mmcf according to NGI’s Shale Daily. The average sale price for gas yesterday in the Barnett Shale was $3.36 Mmcf! You can see why Carrizo is cooling their heals in the Marcellus. Here’s the portion of today’s Carrizo update dealing with their drilling program in the Marcellus/Utica:
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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues | NG Vehicles | Research

New IEA Report: NatGas in Transportation About to “Take Off”
June 20, 2013June 20, 2013

The International Energy Agency (IEA) today released their Medium-Term Gas Market Report (MTGMR), in which they say U.S. natural gas production will accelerate from 2014 through 2018 as higher prices spur drilling and infrastructure expansion brings more shale supplies to market. There are a number of interesting tidbits in the study (see a summary and slide show embedded below).

Among the predictions in the report is that natural gas is about to take off in a major way as a transportation fuel, making a serious dent in oil: “Thanks to abundant shale gas in the United States and amid more stringent environmental policies in China, gas is expected to do more to slow oil demand growth than electric vehicles and biofuels combined.”

The IEA press release announcing the latest MTGMR:
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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues

Marcellus Will Produce More Supply than Demand in NE – This Summer!
May 23, 2013May 23, 2013

A shocking observation from RBN Energy founder Rusty Braziel that he made last week at the Bentek Benposium event in Houston: Northeast demand for natural gas will be almost entirely met from local Marcellus production in the coming years. Starting this summer, the region will produce more supply than total demand! Implication? “Significant re-plumbing of the US natural gas pipeline distribution system will be needed.” That re-plumbing is already underway.

Rusty describes how production forecasts from just two years ago (2011) are wrong–way wrong, on the low side–because of the super-producing Marcellus Shale:
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