Commodity Price

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    EIA Releases Annual Energy Outlook – Gives Us the Big Picture

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just released their Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (full copy embedded below). Each year the EIA performs a comprehensive review of all sources of energy used in the U.S., and they take their best guess at where supply and demand–and prices–will go in the near- and long-term (to 2040 for this report). The EIA employs some of the best brains in the business and of all the government agencies, the EIA is least susceptible to political manipulation by The White House. We love the EIA and the reports and information they generate.

    When MDN editor Jim Willis attended the Platts Global Energy Forum last December, it was a real eye-opener (see Jimmy Goes to the Big Apple: Platts Global Energy Outlook Forum). Those of us heavily involved in the shale industry sometimes lose sight of the bigger picture. Shale energy is just one component–a very important component, but just one–in a much larger energy picture. This annual report from the EIA helps provide that larger perspective–helping us to see where the shale energy industry “fits” in the picture. One tidbit from the report we noticed was their prediction for where the commodity price of natural gas will go in the near- and long-term. The EIA says…
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    Peak Oil/Gas Theorist Art Berman Generates “Study” for NY Ladies

    A month ago the New York League of [Liberal Democrat Anti-Drilling] Women Voters hired a consultant that has been so wrong about his theories on “peak oil” he would be laughed out of any room he walks into (see Peak Oil Theorist Art Berman Says Shale Gas is Peaking Too), to pen a new report that says just want the lib ladies want it to say: If drilling were to begin in NY today, nobody would drill here because they couldn’t make money by selling gas at $4-$4.50 per thousand cubic feet.

    To which we say–fine. Let’s find out! Cabot Oil & Gas is making money hand over fist in Susquehanna County, PA, just across the border, even with gas as low as $1.50 per Mcf. Let’s see if they can work some of that magic on this side of the border. But of course that’s not what this so-called “study” is about. The study ordered up by the very anti-drilling so-called League of Women Voters is a further attempt to dispirit New Yorkers on shale drilling. For Art Berman, the purpose of the study is to repair his damaged reputation. It does the opposite, providing the final nails. Below we have the press release announcing this latest laughingstock of a “study” from the discredited Art Berman, along with a copy of the 44-page “study” itself…
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    Chicken/Egg Problem of Getting Cheap Marcellus Gas to NE Markets

    One of the big stories over the winter months was the spike in price for natural gas around places like Boston and New York City (see The Wild Ride for NatGas Prices in the Northeast). At one point the price of natural gas sold near Boston briefly rocketed to over $120 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). The price for the Algonquin Citygate (Boston) normally runs from $4-$11 or so. No problem. We live in a (somewhat) free, capitalistic economy, right? If there’s demand like that in the northeast, and there’s all this supply from the Marcellus right on the doorstep of these markets, it’s Marcellus to the rescue, right? Wrong.

    Drillers certainly would love to supply more natural gas to the northeast, but lack of pipelines stands in the way. Complicating matters–a lot of the demand in the northeast comes from electric generating plants, and their demand fluctuates throughout the year based on electric loads. Because of strict regulations, electric plants won’t lock themselves into long-term contracts that may result in a higher prices because they would not be able to pass on the higher prices to consumers. It’s a quick way to go bankrupt. Pipeline companies will not build the new pipelines needed to get the gas from the Marcellus to northeast markets without long-term commitments. Electric generating plants won’t commit long-term. Chicken and egg…
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    Shale Plays Now Majority of Revenue for Oilfield Services Cos

    Each year UHY LLP Certified Public Accountants and PennWell Publishing’s Oil & Gas Financial Journal conduct a survey of the oil and gas industry and publish the results. In a press release about the latest survey we learn some interesting facts: More than half of oilfield services companies and some 40% of drillers (E&P companies) say that shale plays will be responsible for more than half of their revenues in 2014; most companies surveyed believe the commodity price of natural gas will remain at the $4-$6 level through the end of 2015; and 75% of those surveyed use pipelines to get their product to market, as opposed to tanker trucks and railroads.

    Here’s the full press release with some more tidbits from the survey, along with instructions for how to get a copy of the survey…
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    RI Politicians Cry to Energy Sec. Moniz About High NatGas Prices

    Free enterprise. Capitalism. Freedom. Works every time and in every place that it’s tried. And it works better than any of the alternatives. The opposite is government regulation, restriction, less freedom–and when that’s tried, in places like Rhode Island–you get less of things and higher prices. Which is why Rhode Island officials were crying to Energy Sec. Ernest “Hair” Moniz yesterday. They want relief from high natural gas prices and they (predictably) want “the government” to fix it.

    What if, instead, Rhode Island and Massachusetts and other New England states, instead of banning fracking (see Vermont Becomes First State to Ban Fracking) tried capitalism, free enterprise and less government regulation? Hey, there’s a radical idea! Run some more pipelines and start fracking and you’ll see natgas prices drop in New England as it has in other areas. But a dose of common sense is simply a bridge too far for places like Rhode Island…
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    Moody’s Says Marcellus is Different–and Better–than Other Plays

    Moody’s Investors Service has just published a new 11-page (5,231 word) report titled, “US Exploration and Production: Marcellus’ Natural Gas Bounty Rewards Early Adopters.” Pricetag? $550 smackeroos. A bit too pricey for us for an 11-page report! However, Moody’s has kindly shared some of the high-level conclusions they reach in the report, including this one: “Exploration and production (E&P) companies that extract natural gas from the Marcellus Shale play will benefit more than natural gas producers elsewhere in North America, and their advantage isn’t likely to change anytime soon.” We agree.

    The report says early movers like E&P companies including Chesapeake, Southwestern and Anadarko, and midstream companies like MarkWest and Sunoco Logistics, have a distinct and ongoing advantage. Here’s a bit more from their summary of the report in which they point out the Marcellus is not like any other shale play:
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    Yet Another “Shale Gas Will Last Only 10 Years” Claptrap Article

    We spotted a long (and we do mean long) article on the Seeking Alpha investors’ website about the Marcellus Shale. Titled “Marcellus Shale: Through A Glass, Darkly,” the article has lots of charts and graphs, and a lot of math (our eyes glazeth over). We read or scanned through most of it. The author, Moshe Ben-Reuven (a former aerospace engineer, which explains the charts and math and formulas), makes some good points. But when you dig deeper, you understand his overall theme and why he spins the story he does. Ben-Reuven’s theme is that the Marcellus won’t last all that long–10 years IF we don’t export any of it. We can make it last longer if we dump water-based fracking and use alternative (i.e. expensive) fracking methods. And oh yes, shale gas is just a little stepping stone on our way to the alternative energy nirvana future that awaits us all. Shale gas is good for weaning us off nasty coal, but once that’s done, we’ll need to wean ourselves from the less-nasty (but still nasty) shale gas fossil fuel too. That’s the rough conclusion he comes to (see it in his own words below).

    It won’t surprise you to learn that Ben-Reuven heads up a “green energy” company that develops biomass fuels–a technology left behind in the proverbial dust of the shale gas revolution/miracle now taking place. Which explains all of the hocus pocus numbers and story spun by Ben-Reuven. And which brings to mind the old saying: If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull…
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    How the Marcellus & Utica Affects the Price of Natgas

    A blogger writing on the Seeking Alpha investor’s website recently published a lengthy (and excellent) article listing 12 reasons why he believes the current price level of $6+ per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) for natural gas won’t last long. The article’s aim is to warn investors not to get caught up in an irrational exuberance and belief that higher gas prices are here to stay. As we’ve commented before, the commodity price for natural gas is of concern to everyone–from landowners to drillers to midstreamers to traders and buyers–the entire gas ecosystem.

    The reason we highlight the SA article is two-fold: One is he makes some great points about what influences the price of gas, and second, two of his points concern the Marcellus and Utica…
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    Which Way Do You Flow? The Price of Gas, the Marcellus & Canada

    What’s the long-term prognosis for the commodity price of natural gas? Depends on who you ask–but overall, “the market” seems to be saying even amidst one of the coldest winters on record in decades, the longer term trend will be low to moderate prices for methane/natural gas. Industry publication Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin issued one of their analysis stories on the press release wire (a clever marketing move that we appreciate). The story delves into the issue of gas prices and its relationship to Canadian exports/imports. One of the major components of the story (full copy below) is an analysis by investment firm Raymond James.

    Guess which shale play Raymond James spends a good deal of time examining? The Marcellus, of course–which is why we found this particular story about gas prices intriguing. Another reason the story is intriguing is because it reveals that Canada, which has long been the #1 source of natural gas imported into the U.S., has seen their gas flows into the U.S. drop by 50% in the past six years. And now, Marcellus gas is starting to flow the direction, into Canada…
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    Blue State Blues: 6 New England States Want New Natgas Pipeline

    Wonders never cease. The governors of six New England states (5 Democrat governors, 1 Republican governor) have sent a letter, or more properly the heads of their state utility commissions have sent a letter, to ISO New England (the regional cooperative transmission organization), requesting that a new natural gas pipeline be built to get more Marcellus Shale gas into New England. Oh, and they want to charge electric customers to get it built. Why? Not enough pipeline capacity now. Electric generating plants are using more and more natural gas to produce electricity. Not enough supply of natural gas in New England means those generators are paying nosebleed rates to produce electricity, and consequently electric rate payers are paying out the nose to cover the cost. Eventually those rate payers will toss their overlords out of office is something isn’t done–so by golly they’re doing something.

    Even the fossil-fuel hating, tree hugging anti-frackers in New England have hit the brick wall of reality: so-called renewable sources of electricity can’t and won’t (for the foreseeable future) provide enough electricity to meet our needs. The remarkable request letter (embedded below) doesn’t specify how or where the pipeline should go, just that they need it and they need it in place by winter of 2017. Of course, that doesn’t stop some of the nuttier anti-drilling organizations from opposing the idea…
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    IHS Research Predicts Gas Price will Stay at $4-$5/Mcf Until 2035

    An interesting new report is out from IHS. Researchers with IHS predict that the price of natural gas, because of the flood of new shale gas coming into the market, will stay somewhere between $4-$5 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) at the benchmark Henry Hub for the long-term–like until 2035, at least.

    The report, titled “Fueling the Future with Natural Gas: Bringing It Home” (25-page executive summary embedded below) says shale gas can be profitably produced at $4/Mcf or less. One of many conclusions from their research: “…the North American natural gas resource base can accommodate significant increases in demand without requiring a significantly higher price to elicit new supply.” Translation: A LOT more shale drilling just ahead, even with relatively “low” prices. Here’s another fascinating conclusion from the study…
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    The Wild Ride for NatGas Prices in the Northeast

    The price that utility companies and large users of natural gas pay at the pipeline is a lot higher than the price drillers sell it for. Like, multiples higher. However, the pipeline sale price does influence how much drillers will receive. Natural gas is a commodity, and like all commodity markets, the price of gas depends on supply and demand. Since gas is sold at hundreds of market points along transmission pipelines across the country, there are hundreds of different, tiny “markets” of supply and demand.

    Platts issued an interesting press release/article yesterday about the yo-yoing price of gas right now due to the extreme cold in the northeast and Midwest. While some Marcellus gas is sold by drillers for under $3 per thousand cubic feet (or Mcf, which is the same unit as one million Btus, or MMBtu), some of that same gas is being purchased down the pipeline for upward of $60 per Mcf (or MMBtu)! The current situation is an extreme price spike and it won’t last, but it illustrates just how widely prices can swing in the natgas market…
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    RBN Energy’s 2014 Predictions & the Marcellus Connection

    RBN Energy, headed by energy industry luminary Rusty Braziel (formerly an executive with Bentek and veteran of several large oil and gas companies), recently proffered its Top Ten Energy Prognostications for 2014. RBN is based in Houston, but a number of this year’s predictions from RBN are either directly or indirectly related to the Marcellus and Utica Shale, which tells you the stunning impact our northeast energy market is having on the world energy market.

    Below is the abbreviated list of RBN’s “top 10” predictions for 2014–the Chinese Year of the Horse. Bear in mind what Rusty says, even as a prognostication, most (including MDN) believe as the gospel truth…
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    MDN’s Top 10 Most Important Stories of 2013 – Our View

    Top 10Yes it’s trite and certainly overdone, but hey, it’s the last day of 2013 and a slow news day. So MDN editor Jim Willis thought he would put together a list of what he considered to be the top 10 Marcellus and Utica Shale stories from 2013. It’s a look into what we believe, based on your input and feedback, to be the most relevant and important stories from this year. Enjoy!…
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    NYC’s Energy Infrastructure “Transformed,” Boston’s is Not – Why?

    We find it amusing that mainstream media is so narcissistic and navel-gazing that if a story doesn’t originate from NYC/DC media axis, it’s as if the story never existed. Case in point: The Atlantic magazine trumpets “no one noticed” that last month a whole lot more natural gas started flowing to New York City because of a new $1.2 billion pipeline from Spectra Energy connecting NJ to NY. Uh, excuse us Atlantic, but MDN noticed. We’ve been covering this story for the past two years! We told readers back on Oct. 21 that Spectra was opening the valves on an additional 800 million cubic feet of mostly cheap Marcellus Shale gas per day (see Spectra NJ-NY Marcellus Gas Pipeline Goes Online Nov. 1).

    It may take a few months, but we’re glad to see some mainstream media outlets finally, grudgingly, report the good news. However, there are other stories the media continues to ignore, like why Boston will continue to pay high prices for their natural gas even though there’s plenty of cheap gas to be had. There’s a pretty simple explanation…
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    Big News: Bloomberg Writes Positive Marcellus Shale Article!

    Whenever we start reading a Bloomberg article about the Marcellus Shale, shale gas drilling in general, or fracking, we just know how skewed to the anti-drilling side of the ledger the story will be. So imagine our surprise when we read an article that actually reports (gasp!) the truth about the Marcellus Shale. Even though Bloomberg usually tells us the low price of natural gas can’t last, the whole shale gas thing is a house of cards waiting to collapse, drillers are trying to hoodwink investors, blah blah blah–this time even Bloomberg can’t ignore the fact that natural gas being piped into New York City is selling below the price of the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana–and likely will for years to come. Thanks to the Marcellus.

    The Bloomberg article does a good job of giving the big picture with respect to gas prices and how drilling has become more efficient, how infrastructure (pipelines) are helping to get all that gas to market (abundance of supply equals lower prices), and predicting what’s coming next. At the end of the article is an obligatory few sentences from anti-drillers about how shale drilling will poison all of our water and make farms uninhabitable. Well, it is Bloomberg after all. But on balance, this is a good article and worth your time to read. The article begins this way…
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