Commodity Price

Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues | Research

Is Marcellus Production Heading for a Decline? EIA Says Yes
May 29, 2015May 29, 2015

A Reuters story is quoting analysis done by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (our favorite government agency) saying the EIA expects production in the Marcellus to remain flat for the next several years, and then begin a slow decline of 1% or so per year. The EIA prediction is based on the theory that natural gas prices in the Marcellus will remain really low–below $2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) through 2016, and the average price won’t hit $4/Mcf until 2020 or later. Private analysts (many of them) disagree and say production will continue to climb over the next several years as new pipelines come online and drillers “uncurtail” production that is idled right now. Who’s right?…
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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues | Research

Moody’s Says O&G Company Default Rate in 2015 Going Higher
May 21, 2015May 21, 2015

On Tuesday Moody’s Investors Service released a new report titled “Oil and Gas: The Bad, Ugly and Good.” The 12-page, which will set you back $550 (or free if you’re company subscribes to Moody’s) says, in essence, because the price of oil is recovering slowly, instead of quickly, “weaker oil & gas issuers are at a much greater risk of default.” That is, some drillers in 2015 will either go under or get bought out. How many? A high level summary of the report (below) doesn’t say how many. What it does say is that of all the companies rated by Moody’s with a credit rating of B3 or lower (too much debt, not enough revenue), 15% of all the companies in that list are oil & gas companies. That’s up from 8% of all companies in the list a year ago. In other words, it’s getting worse for drillers (or exploration & production companies, as it’s more properly called)…
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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Energy Services | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Statewide PA | UGI Energy Services

SE PA Natgas Customers See Rates Drop 13.5% Thx to Marcellus
May 18, 2015May 18, 2015

Last winter in the northeast saw record-setting cold temperatures in many locations–particularly in Pennsylvania–and near-record demand for natural gas. That would normally mean the price of natural gas used to heat homes and power businesses would rise–significantly. Instead, if you’re among the 178,000 customers who live or work in one of 15 southeastern PA counties served by UGI Penn Natural Gas, your rates are about to go down–again. How much? By an average of 10.3% as of June 1st and another 3.2% on December 1st (total of 13.5% in 6 months). Why? Because UGI now sources ~90% of its natural gas from the cheap, abundant, clean-burning, homegrown, FRACKED Marcellus Shale. Even with record low temps and record high demand, your price just keeps dropping. UGI customers in other PA regions (northeast and central PA) are also seeing rates drop…
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Commodity Price | Energy Services | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Supply Chain | UGI Energy Services | Union County

Marcellus Shale Gas Road Show Visits Union County, PA
May 18, 2015May 18, 2015

Last Friday approximately 100 business leaders gathered in Lewisburg (Union County), PA for the “Think About Energy” briefing hosted by America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA), UGI Utilities, Inc., UGI Energy Services and the Greater Susquehanna Valley Chamber of Commerce. The energy briefing is the seventh such briefing in a series being held throughout PA over the past year. The briefings focus on the supply outlook for natural gas and natural gas liquids, as well provide information on production, consumption trends, utilization opportunities and infrastructure developments. That is–the briefings help those who own or run businesses use and profit from the availability of cheap, abundant Marcellus Shale gas and figure out how to plug into the supply chain. Such sessions are not uncommon. What is uncommon about this session is it’s location–Union County–which is south of Lycoming County and east of Centre County. Union has not (yet) seen a single Marcellus Shale well drilled…
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CNG/LNG | Commodity Price | Exporting | Industrywide Issues | Pipelines | Regulation

Canadian LNG Project Woos Europeans with Promise of Marcellus Gas
April 28, 2015April 28, 2015

You may recall MDN has tracked the issue of potential LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports from Canada that would use, in part, Marcellus Shale gas. There are five such possible LNG projects, four of them based in Nova Scotia (see List of LNG Export Projects for Marcellus/Utica Shale Gas). You may also recall the article we brought you in which Moody’s Investors Service said the vast majority of LNG projects, including the ones in Canada, will not get built (see Moody’s: “Vast Majority” of LNG Export Projects Will be Canceled). Don’t tell that to Pieridae Energy Canada, the company with plans to build the Goldboro LNG project in Goldboro Industrial Park in Guysborough County, Nova Scotia. The US$8.6 billion (C$10 billion) project is 5-6 years away from beginning operation according to a presentation by Pieridae’s CEO Alfred Sorensen to a delegation of economic counsellors from the European Union in Halifax on Monday. One of the keys to the project giving it a “high probability of success” will be Marcellus gas delivered via the Maritimes & Northeast pipeline, according to Sorensen…
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Commodity Price | Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G) | Energy Companies | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Susquehanna County

Cabot Continues to Lower Cost/Mcf, Plans for Constitution in 2016
April 27, 2015April 27, 2015

Last Friday the Cabot Oil & Gas management team held an analyst call to discuss first quarter 2015 results–and look forward to the rest of 2015. There is a lot of good stuff to read in the transcript from the call. We can’t include it all (much as we would like to). Two things really stood out to us as we scanned through the prepared remarks by Cabot personnel and in the question and answers that followed. (1) Cabot’s direct cost to drill and extra natural gas (and oil) continues to drop thanks to their diligence. That cost is now $1.22 per thousand cubic feet equivalent. That number does not (we assume) include the cost to transport and process the natural gas. What it means is that even at somewhere around $1.75-$2.00 per Mcf (our estimate), Cabot is at break even and starts to make money. (2) The Constitution Pipeline is still on track and Cabot predicts it will be operational in mid-2016. Cabot CEO Dan Dinges had some interesting things to say about the Constitution and whether or not they intend to send current production through it–or bring online new production to help fill the Constitution…
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Commodity Price | Energy Services | Industrywide Issues | Kinder Morgan | Pipelines | Tennessee Gas Pipeline

Richard Kinder: Northeast Energy Direct to Proceed Later This Yr
April 24, 2015April 24, 2015

Richard Kinger, CEO of the country’s largest midstream company, Kinder Morgan, went on CNBC on Wednesday to chat about the price of oil and its “sweet spot” and other things. It was Kinder’s Kinder’s comments on his company’s future plans for the Marcellus/Utica region that most interested MDN. Topic A was Kinder’s plans to run an extension of the Tennessee Gas Pipeline into New England, the Northeast Energy Direct project (NED). Kinder said that project is very close to critical mass and should launch later this year, provided FERC approves it…
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Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues

Could USA/Canada/Mexico Dethrone OPEC and Set Oil Prices?
April 15, 2015April 15, 2015

Here’s an interesting idea: What if the U.S. got together with both Canada and Mexico and formed a price fixing coalition like OPEC to control the price of oil? The three North American countries together produce 15 million barrels of oil per day and if they formed a block, it might dethrone OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) as the world’s defacto oil price-setting body. That idea is being floated by Breitling Energy Corporation CEO Chris Faulkner. MDN editor Jim Willis met and chatted with Chris at last fall’s regional Oil & Gas Awards Industry Summit in Dallas, TX. The price of oil has a great deal of influence over the price of natural gas–in particular LNG. So any kind of price-setting body is of keen interest to MDN readers. The question is, would such a price-setting body work here in the U.S.?…
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Commodity Price | Energy Companies | Exxon Mobil | Industrywide Issues

Boone Pickens Predicts $6 Natgas, Exxon Will Buy Someone – Soon
March 20, 2015March 20, 2015

Oil man T. Boone Pickens is 86 years old. He’s never had a problem with speaking his mind, but the older you get, the more plain-spoken (some would say blunt) you get. And so it is with Boone. He appeared yesterday on CNBC to talk about the outlook for natural gas prices and about “what it will take” for Exxon Mobil to increase its production numbers again. In vintage Boone style, he dropped a couple of bombs. One is that he believes we’ll see $6 natural gas prices once again–in his lifetime (and remember, he’s 86). The other is that Exxon will end up buying a “big independent”…
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Anti-Drilling/Fossil Fuel | Commodity Price | Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues

OPEC Says American Shale Boom Over by End of 2015
March 18, 2015March 18, 2015

It seems that our enemies–countries that belong to OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) are gloating they believe their strategy of allowing the price of oil to collapse is “working” and that they are driving shale drillers in the U.S. out of business. OPEC is predicting the shale boom will be “over by the end of 2015,” after previously predicting the same thing by the end of 2018. Excuse us while we pick ourselves up off the floor after laughing so hard! Will these people never stop underestimating American ingenuity and resilience? Will they always misunderstand and pooh-pooh American exceptionalism–that we are the exception to the rule, virtually the only country in history where liberty and acknowledgment of God-given rights for individuals allows those individuals freedom to pursue their dreams, creating a country free of government tyranny and unleashing creativity and passion so intense it results in achievements in this country that surpass those of all other countries combined? Fortunately for us, it seems the members of OPEC are obtuse and fail to grasp the true nature of the shale boom–how it got started, and why it will continue long after we’re all dead and gone…
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Commodity Price | Electrical Generation | Industrywide Issues | Research

Is Natgas a Good Long-Term Fuel to Fire Electric Plants?
March 17, 2015March 17, 2015

Last week MDN told you the Union of So-Called Concerned Scientists had issued a “report” (rather unscientific, written by someone with a political science degree) to say even though Obama’s war on coal has been successful, it’s having the unintended consequence of electric generation power plants switching from coal to natural gas to fire them. UCS and other so-called green groups irrationally hate fossil fuels and want the switching to be from coal to so-called renewables, like solar and wind. So in an effort to besmirch and call into doubt the long-term viability of natural gas as a fuel source to generate electricity, UCS issued a report saying using natural gas to power electric plants is a “gamble” (see UCS “Report” Says Using Natural Gas for Electric Generation Big Gamble). The theory is that natural gas will run out in a few years, or become obscenely expensive, and all of those natgas-fired electric plants will mean super high electric rates. The problem with such “reports” is something called reality. We just noticed a press release from Midland Cogeneration Venture (MCV), the country’s largest natural-gas fired combined heat and electrical power generating plant, located in Michigan. The release was to commemorate an important milestone for MCV–the plant has been up and operating and supplying enough electricity for one million homes PLUS electricity and steam for major industry facilities, for the last 25 years…
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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues

With Cheap/Abundant Marcellus Gas, Why Aren’t Utility Bills Lower?
March 10, 2015March 10, 2015

The price of natural gas is low–and seems to be staying low–for an extended period. In the dead of a brutal winter (for the northeast anyway) the price of natgas has stayed below $3 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). This morning it was $2.68 Mcf. So what aren’t consumers–those who heat with natural gas–seeing lower prices on their monthly utility bills? None other than the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) tackled that very question yesterday in their Today in Energy publication. We have their article below. In a word, the reason consumers don’t see lower prices is…”regulation”…
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Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues

Low Temps Used to Mean High Natgas Prices, But No More
February 20, 2015February 20, 2015

Boston keeps getting hammered by snow storm after snow storm–more than 7 feet of snow in the past month. The polar vortex is dipping all the way down into the Deep South (Georgia et al). It’s minus 8 at MDN headquarters this morning in Binghamton, NY! So what’s the price of natural gas doing? Must be going through the roof like last winter, right? Wrong! The price of natural gas is still low, and according to one commodities trading expert, it’s going lower over the next month or so–despite the frigid temps in the northeast. Why? In two words: Marcellus/Utica…
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Commodity Price | Economic Impact | Industrywide Issues

NJ’s Biggest Utility Cuts Gas Rates 31% Thx to Marcellus Shale
February 5, 2015February 5, 2015

New Jersey, the state that keeps fighting pipelines and fracking, keeps getting lower and lower utility rates thanks to…pipelines and fracking. NJ’s largest utility, Public Service Electric and Gas, has just announced another cut in rates, a whopping 31% cut, thanks to the Marcellus Shale…
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Commodity Price | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Statewide PA

MSC & PIOGA: Marcellus Drilling is Scaling Back “Significantly”
January 26, 2015January 26, 2015

What’s the prognosis for new drilling activity in the Marcellus Shale? Two industry leaders gave a sobering assessment to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Dave Spigelmyer, president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition (MSC) and Lou D’Amico, president of the Pennsylvania Independent Oil and Gas Association (PIOGA) spoke frankly about where drilling is scaling back (more so in the wet gas areas than the dry gas areas, but dry gas still affected too), and when the outlook is likely to improve (not any time soon)…
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Alternative Energy | Commodity Price | Electrical Generation | Industrywide Issues | Pipelines | Regulation | Research

ICF Forecast: Coal in Trouble, Gas Price Flat, Alternatives So-So
January 9, 2015January 9, 2015

ICF International, a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, has released its ICForecast Energy Outlook for the first quarter of 2015. The study highlights the near-, mid- and long-term future impacts of proposed U.S. federal environment regulations, including up-to-date analysis of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) rules and regulation activities; gas, coal and power market prices and coal production; and renewable energy development. What does it say? Coal plants will continue to be strangled by EPA regulations, natural gas prices will remain flat/low in 2015, wind energy faces “uncertainty” ahead and solar continues to make microscopic progress…
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