What Happens if No New Gas Pipes Get Built in U.S. Thru 2050?
In early March, our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), released its “Annual Energy Outlook 2022” report (see EIA Annual Report Says U.S. O&G Use Will Grow Each Year Thru 2050). One of the main findings of this latest look forward is that the use of oil and natural gas will grow steadily and gradually from now until 2050–over the next 30 years. As part of their prediction modeling, EIA uses three scenarios or “cases”–a “reference” case (what they believe is most realistic), a low economic growth case, and a high economic growth case. EIA has just released a very interesting fourth case: What would happen if no new interstate natural gas pipelines were built from 2024 through 2050? How would that affect natural gas production and consumption?
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration published an article yesterday pointing out that both petroleum (oil) and natural gas are and will continue to be the most-used forms of energy in the United States through 2050. In fact, both oil and gas use will continue to rise through 2050. This is completely contrary to the “renewables are almost here and fossil fuels almost gone” narrative peddled by the left. The EIA, now under the control of the Bidenistas, can’t ignore the truth. But here’s the larger story not told by EIA in its post, but evident in the chart used: Fossil energy will continue to be used four times as much as so-called renewables in 2050.
BofA (Bank of America) Global Research recently issued a research report stating that natural gas production in both the Marcellus/Utica and the Permian Basin faces constraints in 2023 and likely will have to dial back on production. Both regions will hit capacity with existing pipelines in 2023 and there are no new pipes coming online. Also, one of the largest growing customers for our natgas supplies has been LNG exports. No new LNG facilities will come online in 2023, says BofA, which hasn’t happened since we began exporting LNG in 2016.
An updated report issued by the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shows that PA exports far more electricity out of state than any other state in the entire country. In 2021 PA generated 241.6 million megawatt-hours (MWH) of electricity. The state itself used 156.2 million MWH, and exported 85.5 million MWH to other states. The number one source (by far) of fuel used to generate that much electricity? Marcellus natural gas. PA Gov. Tom Wolf’s insane Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) carbon tax threatens to shut down that gas-fired production.
The mighty BP (formerly British Petroleum) admits they were wrong in the company’s latest Annual Energy Outlook for 2022 (full copy below). In BP’s Energy Outlook for 2020, BP (wrongly) predicted the world had hit so-called “peak oil” demand for crude oil and other liquid fuels, topping out at around 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019. Whoops. That was wrong. BP now says oil/liquids demand will rise to 101 million bpd by 2025 and stay there for another five years, to around 2030. As for natural gas, the LNG trade “grows strongly over the first 10 years of the outlook” and then tapers off. By 2050 LNG production, claims BP, will only be 10% higher than it was in 2019.
On the same day that EQT CEO Toby Rice released his plan to “unleash” American LNG (see today’s companion story), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a post that talks about LNG production from a decidedly “leashed” perspective. While Rice envisions new pipelines, rigs, and export facilities that will handle a huge increase in Marcellus/Utica drilling, the EIA’s vision is status quo–constrained pipelines from the M-U region.
In early 2013 the Pittsburgh International Airport and Allegheny County, PA signed a deal with CONSOL Energy (now CNX Resources) to lease 9,000 acres surrounding the airport for natural gas drilling (see 
Yesterday our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), released its “Annual Energy Outlook 2022.” One of the main findings of this latest look forward is that the use of oil and natural gas will grow steadily and gradually from now until 2050–over the next 30 years. Renewables (solar and wind) will grow too, but fossil energy will remain completely dominant for the next generation (and likely longer). Surprised? We’re not.
Because of the cold weather in the northeast and in other parts of the country in the first part of February, natural gas production in the U.S. took a nosedive, declining to roughly 85.8 Bcf/d. With the warmer weather unthawing the freeze-offs that happened, a few days ago production soared over 94.6 Bcf/d–the highest it has been in seven weeks. According to S&P, with the coldest days of winter behind us, all the signs are in place for natgas production to continue growing over the coming weeks and months.
Penn State has launched a new research project to see if it can prove there is a link between water contamination in southwestern Pennsylvania and fracking. We’ve seen this movie before…or have we? In 2018 PA Gov. Tom Wolf, a liberal Democrat who sometimes supports the shale gas industry (as long as he can tax it) caved to demands from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette to launch a “study” in a bid to “prove” cases of rare childhood cancer in southwestern PA can be tied to shale drilling in the region (see