EIA Notices the Curious Case of Disappearing DUCs in U.S. Shale
For the past year or more DUCs (drilled but uncompleted wells) have been disappearing from the country’s seven largest shale plays. Wells are drilled and completed in two broad phases. First, a borehole is drilled for an oil or gas well. In the case of shale wells, that includes drilling down (vertically) and then out (horizontally). After the initial hole is drilled, the well may be capped until a later date when the second phase begins of fracking and completing the well. Wells initially drilled but not completed are called DUCs. EIA has noticed the trend that DUC numbers are decreasing.
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One of our main criticisms with what is supposed to be real scientific inquiry in recent years is that real science–observation and testing to verify a hypothesis–has been replaced by computer models of what “may” or is “likely” to be true. We have yet another case in the form of a study recently published by a Syracuse University researcher who says using computer models he can prove regular old conventional oil and gas drilling is just as bad for methane migration into water supplies as horizontal shale fracking. The researcher claims there’s not a dime’s worth of difference–that both are bad for groundwater supplies.
The Enverus U.S. rig count continues to break one-year records. For the week ending June 23, the rig count stood at 577–the highest number it has seen since April 2020, just as the pandemic was starting to take hold and shut everything down. The Marcellus play lost one rig, while the Utica remained even. Collectively the M-U is currently running 45 rigs.
Here’s a peer-reviewed, published research study you won’t read about in mainstream media. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU), Penn State University, and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation recently published research in The Electricity Journal (full copy below) detailing how much money it cost New England electric ratepayers in 2014 when there was a cold-weather event that caused a shortage of natural gas used for power plants, due to lack of pipelines. New Englanders paid $1.8 BILLION for that one event in skyrocketed electric rates–due to the folly of their elected leaders in blocking new pipelines to the region.
An interesting post by our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) about their latest predictions for the price of natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub. EIA predicts the average price at HH this year, in 2021, will end up being around $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The average in 2020 was $1.998 (round it up to $2.00). So this year the average price will be some 54% higher than last year. What about 2022?
A preliminary report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine finds the transportation of LNG (liquefied natural gas) by various methods–sea, road, AND by rail–is perfectly safe. Currently, LNG is not widely transported by rail in the U.S., but rail is used in other countries to transport LNG. Last year Congress instructed the government-funded National Academies to study the issue. They’ve issued a preliminary study called “Preparing for LNG by Rail Tank Car: A Review of a U.S. DOT Safety Research, Testing, and Analysis Initiative” (full copy below).
Finally! This is a red-letter day. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report for June (with forecasted numbers for July) predicts natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica region will swing from month-over-month decreases we’ve seen for the past year and a half (
For years those who have supported natural gas have made the argument that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have been decreasing in the U.S. because of the increased use of natural gas. How can that be, given burning natural gas causes the release of CO2? Because natural gas has captured market share and largely replaced the use of coal in electric power generation. As more natgas is used, CO2 emissions go down. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has just released numbers proving, without a doubt, just how much natgas has helped to lower CO2 emissions over the past 17 years.
Each month our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issues a Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report. The STEO covers all of the major energy sources produced and consumed in the country. The latest edition, issued yesterday, finds the analysts at EIA revising up the expected marketed production and consumption of natural gas in 3Q21. Also up is the expected average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub–now up to a predicted $3.07/MMBtu for all of 2021. However, EIA says natural gas consumption for all of 2021 will sink by half of one percent from 2020. Why?
Calling it “an extraordinary year for the global gas industry,” the International Gas Union (IGU) yesterday released its 12th annual World LNG Report–the world’s most comprehensive public source of information on key developments and trends in the LNG sector (full copy below). From huge drops in demand levels at the height of the pandemic lockdowns, through exceptional spikes when the winter deep freeze sent the world’s energy systems into crisis, the IGU says LNG, quite literally, delivered.
Yesterday the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released their latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for January through March 2021 (full copy below). The main indicators are moving in the right direction. In 1Q21 the number of new wells spud (begun to be drilled) was 133 new shale wells. That’s less than the 153 spud wells in 1Q20, which happened prior to the pandemic, but more than the spud numbers for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2020. Even with less new drilling over the past few years, production numbers continued to soar, hitting a brand new, all-time high of 1.863 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) during 1Q21.