Study: Frack Ban Will Kill American Economy, Lower GDP $7.1T
The American Petroleum Institute recently released the results of a study they commissioned that outlines the “dire consequences” of a ban on hydraulic fracturing–the kind of ban being pushed by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Biden. Here’s how dire it gets: If a frack ban is slapped into place by a Democrat President, by 2022 it will result in 7.5 million lost jobs, and by 2030 a total loss out of the economy of $7.5 TRILLION! You might as well say we will enter a new economic depression, the likes of which we haven’t experienced since the 1930s.
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For years anti-fossil fuel zealots have used and abused the word “fracking” and its derivatives to describe horizontal hydraulic fracturing, and more generically to describe the entire shale oil and gas industry (drilling, pipelines, etc.). Antis love to slip in phrases like “fracked gas” and refer to those who work in the industry as “frackers.” They call themselves “fracktivists.” It all sounds so naughty. We happen to love the word and we embrace it, to shove it right back in their faces (others in our industry do not like the word and sometimes chide us for using it). A couple of so-called researchers have coined a new fracking-related term: “fraccidents.”
The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) issued fourth-quarter 2019 numbers for Utica shale oil and gas production last Friday. The numbers show new state record highs for quarterly oil and natural gas production, the most ever since quarterly reporting began in 2013. Utica oil production was up 17% over 4Q18, and Utica natural gas production was up 3.2% over 4Q18.
One of our favorite publications to read is the Pittsburgh Business Times. The PBT recently researched and published a list of the “
University of Texas at Austin researchers have just published two new wastewater studies in two different peer-reviewed journals. One study quantifies, for the first time, how much water is produced from oil and natural gas operations in major shale plays (including the Marcellus) compared with how much is needed for fracking. In some plays, there is so much water coming out of the ground from oil and gas wells (after fracking, called produced water) that the volume coming out is more than enough to drill and frack all of the new wells in those plays. No freshwater sources required. In the Marcellus, we use more water than could be provided by recycling produced water from our wells. The second study looks at the potential for using produced water in other sectors, like agriculture, for those plays where there is an abundance of extra produced water.
Last week MDN told you that our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, predicts natural gas production from the country’s seven largest shale plays will decrease in March (see 
You’ve read the news that Democrats like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, along with most (if not all) of the Democrat presidential candidates, support a full-on ban of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas (see 
Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is out with another intriguing post. EIA takes a look at their best estimates of natural gas production in the U.S. over the next 30 years, to 2050. When the number crunchers at EIA analyze this stuff, they run multiple scenarios. One scenario (or “case”) assumes a rosy picture, with high oil and gas supplies. Another case assumes high oil prices. Another case assumes low oil prices. And yet another case assumes low oil and gas supplies. Finally, there is the “reference” case–or the scenario EIA thinks is most likely to happen. As the data geeks look out over the next three decades, in all but one of their scenarios/cases they see natural gas production increase.
Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s supermajors (oil and gas driller), is, in fact, one of (perhaps THE) largest producer of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, in the world. The company has just released its fourth annual LNG Outlook 2020 (full copy below) which highlights key trends in 2019 and hauls out the crystal ball to predict where things are heading over the next 20 years. Shell says global demand for LNG is expected to double to 700 million tonnes by 2040. Why? Because natgas emits less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than other alternatives.
We knew this day would come (although we secretly wished it never would). Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, yesterday released our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR chronicles how much oil and gas the country’s seven largest shale plays produced last month and their prediction for the coming month. For the first time in 39 months, the combined natural gas output of the seven shale plays will decrease instead of increase. But what a run it’s been! With gas prices in the basement and drillers slashing budgets and people, this was bound to happen. However, shale oil output will hit a new record in March: 9.18 million barrels per day.
A brand new study (full copy below) published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) looked at 25 small watersheds over the course of 2 years in northeastern Pennsylvania, looking for any possible correlation between fracking and local streams. Know what they found? There is NO impact from fracking on local streams. NONE. Those who worked on the study include researchers from the US Geological Survey, the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP), and the Pennsylvania Dept. of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR).
Powerhouse consulting firm Deloitte released its “2020 Oil and Gas M&A Outlook” report yesterday (full copy below). In something of a surprise (for us), the experts at Deloitte found that the number of mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas space went DOWN in 2019, although the value of the deals was up (due to big deals like Occidental’s $55 billion buyout of Anadarko). What’s ahead in 2020? More of the same, according to Deloitte. Wait–aren’t drillers dropping like flies, not able to turn a profit so they’re selling and merging? No, not really.
If you add up all of the forms of energy used by the U.S.–electric power generation, transportation, home and business heating and cooling, etc.–and you measure the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) all of that energy usage pumps into earth’s precious atmosphere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the CO2 we will pump out in 2050 will be 4% LESS than what we pumped out in 2019. And that’s with continued heavy use of fossil fuels. Which exposes the lie that we must dump the use of fossil fuels now, certainly by 2050, or we’ll all die from high temperatures.
A fascinating new study has just been published in the peer-reviewed journal Science of The Total Environment. The new study, titled “Characterizing anecdotal claims of groundwater contamination in shale energy basins,” looks at the perception of landowners who say local fracking activities have impacted (polluted) their water wells–versus reality. The study finds that in most cases the so-called pollution problems of these water wells is (using our own words here) “all in the heads” of the landowners. It’s not real. Fracking, in fact, has NOT caused the pollution of their wells. Researchers studied wells in the Texas Barnett and Eagle Ford, the Louisiana Haynesville, and (yep) the Pennsylvania Marcellus–in Dimock.
According to our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the price of natural gas will, on average, remain below $4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) for (gasp)–the next 30 years. You read that right. Lower for longer is, according to EIA, the reality for the next full generation. EIA recently released its “Annual Energy Outlook 2020” (full copy below). In addition to low gas prices, EIA predicts that so-called renewables will eclipse natural gas in electricity production by 2050. We say: When pigs fly.