EIA Says NatGas Production Continues to Increase Until 2050
Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is out with another intriguing post. EIA takes a look at their best estimates of natural gas production in the U.S. over the next 30 years, to 2050. When the number crunchers at EIA analyze this stuff, they run multiple scenarios. One scenario (or “case”) assumes a rosy picture, with high oil and gas supplies. Another case assumes high oil prices. Another case assumes low oil prices. And yet another case assumes low oil and gas supplies. Finally, there is the “reference” case–or the scenario EIA thinks is most likely to happen. As the data geeks look out over the next three decades, in all but one of their scenarios/cases they see natural gas production increase.
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Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s supermajors (oil and gas driller), is, in fact, one of (perhaps THE) largest producer of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, in the world. The company has just released its fourth annual LNG Outlook 2020 (full copy below) which highlights key trends in 2019 and hauls out the crystal ball to predict where things are heading over the next 20 years. Shell says global demand for LNG is expected to double to 700 million tonnes by 2040. Why? Because natgas emits less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than other alternatives.
We knew this day would come (although we secretly wished it never would). Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, yesterday released our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR chronicles how much oil and gas the country’s seven largest shale plays produced last month and their prediction for the coming month. For the first time in 39 months, the combined natural gas output of the seven shale plays will decrease instead of increase. But what a run it’s been! With gas prices in the basement and drillers slashing budgets and people, this was bound to happen. However, shale oil output will hit a new record in March: 9.18 million barrels per day.
A brand new study (full copy below) published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) looked at 25 small watersheds over the course of 2 years in northeastern Pennsylvania, looking for any possible correlation between fracking and local streams. Know what they found? There is NO impact from fracking on local streams. NONE. Those who worked on the study include researchers from the US Geological Survey, the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP), and the Pennsylvania Dept. of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR).
Powerhouse consulting firm Deloitte released its “2020 Oil and Gas M&A Outlook” report yesterday (full copy below). In something of a surprise (for us), the experts at Deloitte found that the number of mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas space went DOWN in 2019, although the value of the deals was up (due to big deals like Occidental’s $55 billion buyout of Anadarko). What’s ahead in 2020? More of the same, according to Deloitte. Wait–aren’t drillers dropping like flies, not able to turn a profit so they’re selling and merging? No, not really.
If you add up all of the forms of energy used by the U.S.–electric power generation, transportation, home and business heating and cooling, etc.–and you measure the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) all of that energy usage pumps into earth’s precious atmosphere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the CO2 we will pump out in 2050 will be 4% LESS than what we pumped out in 2019. And that’s with continued heavy use of fossil fuels. Which exposes the lie that we must dump the use of fossil fuels now, certainly by 2050, or we’ll all die from high temperatures.
A fascinating new study has just been published in the peer-reviewed journal Science of The Total Environment. The new study, titled “Characterizing anecdotal claims of groundwater contamination in shale energy basins,” looks at the perception of landowners who say local fracking activities have impacted (polluted) their water wells–versus reality. The study finds that in most cases the so-called pollution problems of these water wells is (using our own words here) “all in the heads” of the landowners. It’s not real. Fracking, in fact, has NOT caused the pollution of their wells. Researchers studied wells in the Texas Barnett and Eagle Ford, the Louisiana Haynesville, and (yep) the Pennsylvania Marcellus–in Dimock.
According to our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the price of natural gas will, on average, remain below $4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) for (gasp)–the next 30 years. You read that right. Lower for longer is, according to EIA, the reality for the next full generation. EIA recently released its “Annual Energy Outlook 2020” (full copy below). In addition to low gas prices, EIA predicts that so-called renewables will eclipse natural gas in electricity production by 2050. We say: When pigs fly.
What is it about Yale University researchers and their obsession with sexually transmitted diseases? It seems like an unhealthy obsession to us. The same Yale brain trust that brought us a sham “study” in 2018 that said fracking causes STDs in Ohio (see 
The regional transmission organization (RTO) that oversees the electric grid in New England states is called ISO New England. The organization has just published new data for 2019 which contains some interesting statistics. For example, in 2019, some 48.5% of all the electricity generated in the region (the #1 source) was generated by (yep)…natural gas. That number has been pretty consistent over the past five years. The #2 source of electric generation was nuclear, at 30%. The #3 source was hydro, which produced 9% of New England’s electricity. Wait, what about wind and solar? You know, the blessed renewables that will SAVE THE PLANET. How much did they produce last year?
For many years the U.S. has imported natural gas. When you look at how much natural gas we import versus how much we now export, via LNG and pipelines, the difference is a number called “net exports.” The U.S. now exports more natural gas than it imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is fresh out with a report that says our “net export” number is set to *double* in the next two years.
Just coming to light for us now is a report issued by the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that estimates the amount of gas production royalties paid by drillers to landowners for calendar year 2017 (the most recent year available). It’s a fascinating report that breaks down royalty payments by the eight top gas-producing counties in the state. You may be surprised to learn the county producing the most natural gas in the state (Susquehanna County) does NOT, in fact, pay out the most in landowner royalties.
Three weeks ago MDN told readers the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts a slight reduction in Marcellus/Utica production will happen this month–that M-U will produce an estimated 74 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) less in January than we did in December (see