Goldboro LNG Predicts FID Coming by June 30 – Some 9 Yrs Later
Pieridae Energy’s Goldboro LNG project, located in Nova Scotia (with the potential to export Marcellus/Utica molecules) has been on our radar for years. Nine years to be exact. In August 2020 Pieridae hired a senior VP to run the project, an indicator the company is serious about building it (see Pieridae Hires Senior VP to Run Goldboro LNG Export Project). Last September Pieridae hired EPC giant Becthel to design and (eventually) build it (see Pieridae Hires Bechtel to Design Goldboro LNG in Nova Scotia). Even with all that activity, the fact remains Pieridae still has not pulled the trigger on a final investment decision (FID). During a first-quarter update issued yesterday, Pieridae officials reaffirmed an FID is coming no later than June 30 of this year. Will this project be “the last one standing” for new LNG projects?
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For nearly every year of the past 20+ years, there has been a reliable, year-in-and-year-out #1 export (in dollar revenue) from the United States to the rest of the world. Care to hazard a guess what it has been? Aircraft, mostly from Boeing. The U.S. has a new most-valuable export in 2021 that has flown on by aircraft exports: Natural gas. The fact that natgas has dethroned aircraft exports does not square well with rabid American leftists who seek to destroy all fossil fuel markets, including natural gas. The vaunted position of natgas also presents a problem for the Biden administration and their plans to slip AOC’s Fat Green Deal through under the disguise of an “infrastructure and jobs” plan.
Cheniere Energy, the biggest LNG exporter operating in the U.S., published a “Climate Scenario Analysis Report” last week (full copy below). The report analyzes the long-term resilience of Cheniere’s business and the potential implications for LNG supply and demand in various future climate scenarios through 2040. Cheniere predicts LNG demand and exports to continue growing through 2040, but after that, LNG will decline due to continued global action to reduce so-called greenhouse gas emissions.
Last week a group of U.S. Senators, including John Kennedy (R-La.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), introduced the Natural Gas Export Expansion Act. The bill, if it becomes law, will remove regulatory bottlenecks for LNG (liquefied natural gas) and increase LNG exports to the more than 160 countries in the World Trade Organization.
New Fortress Energy (NFE), which likes to build and own as much of the LNG supply chain as possible, built and operates an LNG import terminal in San Juan, Puerto Rico. After the facility was up and running, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) dinged the company, asking for an explanation as to why they built it without FERC “Mother May I?” permission. New Fortress responded last July saying FERC told them no permission was needed (see 
Feedgas, the natural gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals that gets liquefied and shipped to foreign destinations, hit a new all-time high on Wednesday: 11.65 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in a single day. All six major U.S. LNG export facilities currently in operation contributed to the surge, including Cove Point in Maryland and Elba Island in Georgia (both export 100% Marcellus/Utica molecules). M-U molecules are also exported from most of the other four active LNG export facilities, including large amounts of our molecules flowing to Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass facility.
New Fortress Energy (NFE), the brainchild of billionaire Wes Edens, came out of nowhere just a few years ago to become one of the world’s leading natural gas infrastructure and logistics operators, delivering natural gas (typically LNG) to customers in a number of other countries. NFE also builds and operates gas-fired electric plants in some of those countries. They own most of the supply chain, from liquefying the gas to shipping it, unloading it, and using it in plants built and operated by the company. We track NFE for their plan to build an LNG liquefaction plant in Bradford County, PA (northeastern part of the state). What’s happening with that project?
Just at the time U.S. exports of LNG are once again ramping up, along comes a “bipartisan” group of legislators proposing a bill to require some LNG exports (as well as some petroleum exports) to be transported from our shores on U.S.-built and U.S.-flagged LNG carriers. The problem is, none currently exist! This is yet another massive screwup coming from some who mean well, and some who don’t. Some of the people backing the bill, like hapless Sen. Bob Casey (from Pennsylvania) likely don’t know this bill will destroy exports of Marcellus/Utica molecules. He’s just too dull to comprehend it. But others, we suspect, know exactly what this bill would do.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2020 U.S. exports of propane reached record levels, increasing 13% and surpassing distillate fuel oil as the country’s top petroleum product export. U.S. exports of distillate fuel oil fell to its lowest level since 2016. Propane is one of the NGLs produced in (and exported from) the Marcellus/Utica.
Cheniere Energy operates two huge LNG export facilities–one in Sabine Pass, Louisiana, the other in Corpus Christi, Texas. Cheniere is the #1 LNG exporter in the U.S. Yesterday the company issued its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 update. The company said it secured over 4 million tonnes of LNG supply deals during 4Q20. While the company took a hit with canceled cargoes during the pandemic, Cheniere expects 2021 to rebound and be a banner year. Why do we care? Because a significant quantity of Marcellus/Utica gas flows to the Cheniere facilities for export.