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Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Adds 1 @ 621, M-U Even @ 42
The Baker Hughes rig count gained another rig last week. The count went from 620 active rigs two weeks ago to 621 last week — up a single rig. It went up a single rig the week prior, too. And that’s about where we are. We have floated between 620 and 625 for all of December and January — dipping to 619 for one week during that period. It appears we’ve hit the bottom and are stable. The Marcellus/Utica remained constant last week with 42 active rigs, after PA added two rigs the week before.
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reporting U.S. dry natural gas production in the Lower 48 states reached an all-time monthly high of 105.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in December 2023. In 2023, Lower 48 dry natural gas production increased 3.7% (3.6 Bcf/d) from 2022. Dry natural gas production increased 3.8 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter of 2023 (4Q23) compared with the average for the first three quarters of 2023. The increase was led by production from the Marcellus/Utica region, followed by the Permian.
One week ago, the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA) Foundation published a report called “Impact of Electrifying Natural Gas Transmission Compression” (full copy below). The Foundation commissioned global consulting and technology services provider ICF to assess and write a report on the potential impacts of electrifying natural gas transmission compression as one tool to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions along the natural gas supply chain. What did the researchers find?
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, recently provided a price forecast for the Henry Hub gas price all the way out to 2028. BMI’s forecast is much rosier than others we’ve read. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted the Henry Hub price will average under $3/MMBtu in both 2024 and 2025. BMI, on the other hand, predicts the HH to hit an average of $3.40/MMBtu this year and $3.60 next year. Their lips to God’s ears!
The Baker Hughes rig count lost ground again last week, as it has in four of the last five weeks. The count went from 621 active rigs two weeks ago to 619 last week. The Marcellus/Utica count was steady at 40 active rigs; however, the mix changed. Pennsylvania kept 19 active rigs as in previous weeks, but Ohio picked up one rig for 13 active rigs, while West Virginia lost one rig for 8 active rigs.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a post yesterday on the agency’s newly revamped Today in Energy website to announce it expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average under $3.00/MMBtu in 2024 and 2025. What joyous news (not). The post explains the reasoning and thinking of EIA analysts and why they believe the price of natural gas will be, sadly, lower for longer.