EIA Slashes Henry Hub Estimate to Avg $2.80 This Winter – Dec. STEO
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month, the report predicted the price for Henry Hub natural gas futures would average $3.40 this winter (see EIA Predicts Henry Hub to Avg $3.40 This Winter – Nov. STEO). The latest monthly report, issued Tuesday, slashes that number all the way down to $2.80 (down 18%). A warm start to winter coupled with record-high production is cited as the reason for the change.
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According to powerhouse consulting firm Ernst & Young (EY), it’s been a successful 2023 for the oil and gas industry. In 2023, O&G continued to win back investors and position itself as a key player in the so-called energy transition. Looking ahead, 2024 will be full of opportunities and challenges as everyone looks to “decarbonize” and supposedly move away from fossil fuels. EY offers four trends to watch in O&G for 2024.
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In August, University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) researchers released three studies commissioned by the State Dept. of Health supposedly investigating whether or not there is a connection between shale drilling and childhood diseases, including cancer (see 
Each year, the Oil & Gas Journal updates oil and natural gas reserves by each O&G-producing country. It’s a fascinating look at where the biggest (and smallest) oil and gas supplies exist on the planet. Would it surprise you to learn that three other countries have more (far more) natural gas reserves than we have here in the U.S.? Perhaps even more startling, There are eight countries with more oil reserves than the U.S. Unfortunately, most of the countries with larger supplies are enemies of the U.S.
The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) released production numbers for the third quarter of 2023 late last week, and nobody noticed…except MDN (thanks to a tip from a good friend). ODNR no longer issues a press release to summarize the results as they once did. We’ve got the full spreadsheet with oil and gas production details for all 3,281 active shale wells in the Buckeye State. We’ve sliced and diced the numbers and have our usual Top 25 lists for natural gas and oil wells. We’ve included a couple of charts summarizing the data, showing the total production by driller (gas and oil) and the total production for the quarter by county. You’re gonna love it!
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The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) recently published its 2022 Oil and Gas Annual Report. This is the seventh year in a row the DEP has published the report in an interactive, electronic (i.e., online only) format. Don’t worry; we’ve made the report a convenient PDF for MDN readers. What does the 2022 report show? Permits issued went down, but the number of new wells drilled went up. The big news is that natural gas production has, for the first time, gone down year over year in the Keystone State. It is the first time natural gas production has decreased for a given year in the modern shale era in PA.
A team of researchers led by the University of Maryland claims they can now “fingerprint” methane to determine the source of where the molecules come from. Using isotopic variants, the researchers say they can distinguish fossil fuel sources of methane from microbial sources from swamps, landfills, and farms. If true, this is a new and welcomed development. First, the news, then a discussion of its importance.
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Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month, the report predicted new all-time highs for natural gas production in 2023 (see
The dead cat bounce bounced a little higher last week (i.e., the slight bounce a dead cat makes when it hits the ground). The rig count hit a new low for 2023 three weeks ago (see
Veteran equity oil and gas analyst Jeff Robertson, managing director with