NGSA Summer Outlook: Low Natural Gas Prices This Summer
U.S. natural gas demand will remain at record high levels this summer, driven by power market consumption and exports, but prices will decline from last year due to a production increase and higher storage levels, according to the annual Summer Outlook report published yesterday by the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA). According to NGSA, “summer” is defined as April through October, the industry’s traditional cooling season.
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Last week, the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count lost another eight rigs, down to 605, the lowest the count has been since January of 2022. Since last October, the national count had gone as low as 616 and as high as 629, and that was it. No higher and no lower. That is, until two weeks when it crashed through the floor and went lower, down to 613. And now, it has gone even lower, down to 605. The Marcellus/Utica remained even at 40 rigs after losing one rig two weeks ago. Pennsylvania operates 21 rigs; Ohio operates 11 active rigs; and West Virginia operates 8 rigs.
Energy comes in many forms. Most energy produced and consumed in the world comes from fossil fuels. In the United States, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) provided 79% of all the energy we used in 2022, according to the authoritative U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The false narrative that so-called renewables (which are unreliable) like solar and wind are about to take over is just that — completely false. The EIA published a post yesterday to note that U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions coming from the production of energy last year fell by 3% from the previous year, mainly due to the change from using coal to using natural gas to generate electricity.
The first known and recorded miracle performed by Jesus of Nazareth was when he changed 120 gallons of water into wine at a wedding feast in Cana, Galilee. A company in Denmark and a researcher from the University of Manchester (UK) recently published a paper in the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ SPE Journal that claims a similar miracle. They say using a special downhole completion tool, they can convert methane (natural gas) wells into hydrogen (H2) production wells. Wave the magic wand and say the secret phrase, presto magico!
Yesterday the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a post to announce that U.S. natural gas consumption set annual and monthly records during 2023. In 2023, some 89.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas was consumed in the United States, the most on record. Since 2018, U.S. natural gas consumption has increased by an average of 4% annually. Why the significant increase in gas usage? It wasn’t due to residential, commercial, or industrial usage — all of which stayed even or decreased last year. It was (as you may have guessed) a huge increase in the use of natural gas to feed gas-fired power plants.
A team led by Penn State researchers has developed a new tool that can estimate the emissions potential of shale wells after they are no longer active. The researchers claim drillers can analyze their own drill cuttings (samples of shale rock) to determine how much potential there is for methane leakage after a well is abandoned. Which is interesting and perhaps even useful information for Marcellus/Utica drillers. However, a tangential factoid in the news story is what caught our interest and got our mental wheels churning. The factoid is this…
Last week, the Baker Hughes rig count regained a couple of rigs; for the first time in five weeks, the count has gone up instead of down. The count went from 617 active rigs two weeks ago up to 619 last week. Since last October, the national count has gone as low as 616 and as high as 629. And that’s it. No higher and no lower. The Marcellus/Utica lost one rig last week and now runs 41 rigs. Pennsylvania remained constant with 22 rigs; Ohio lost a rig and now operates 11 rigs; and West Virginia remained the same with 8 rigs.
In October 2019, Eureka Resources, which operates three frack wastewater treatment facilities in the Marcellus Shale (and is building a fourth facility in Dimock, PA), began extracting lithium from Marcellus wastewater at one of its plants in Bradford County, PA (see 
Berkeley Research Group (BRG) published a very important new study yesterday that has Big Green tied up in knots. The study, “Comparative GHG Footprint Analysis for European and Asian Supplies of USLNG, Pipeline Gas, and Coal” (full copy below), analyzes methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across leading fuel supply chains for power generation in 13 European and Asian end markets. The study has been under development since 2021. It uses a “bottom-up methodology” to arrive at a comprehensive comparison of the emissions intensity of the primary fuel sources, as well as continuously updated data from numerous sources. It’s far more rigorous and reliable than the typical Big Green propaganda that relies on aggregated emissions information to develop general theoretical conclusions. This is real science.
The EIA says the U.S. natural gas trade will continue to grow with the startup of new LNG export projects. In a Today in Energy post, the EIA says (based on its recent Short-Term Energy Outlook report) that it expects U.S. LNG exports will increase just 2% this year over last year. However, in 2025, LNG exports will soar by 18% due to three new LNG export facilities currently under construction that will come online next year.
It must be its “predict the future price of natgas” season, along with tax season. Yesterday, we told you that BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, hauled out its crystal ball to make predictions about the “front month” contract price for NYMEX natural gas (based on the Henry Hub) for the next five years, beginning with 2024 (see 