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Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Drops 1 @ 620, M-U Even @ 42
Last week, the Baker Hughes rig count dropped another rig. The count went from 621 active rigs two weeks ago down to 620 last week. This is the third week in a row the national count has lost rigs. Since last October, the national count has gone as low as 616 and as high as 629. And that’s it. No higher and no lower. The Marcellus/Utica remained the same last week at 42 active rigs. However, there were some musical chairs. Pennsylvania gained one rig and now operates 22 rigs. West Virginia lost a rig and now operates 8 rigs. Ohio remained steady with 12 active rigs.
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Natural gas is, as we have often pointed out, one of the purest commodity markets in existence. The classic supply/demand curve is at work. If there’s more supply than demand, prices for gas move down. And conversely, if there’s more demand than supply, prices move higher. We have been stuck in a sucky price pattern this year, not helped by a very moderate winter. The phrase on the lips of every landowner and driller is, When will the price move higher? According to analysts from Morgan Stanley, not anytime soon.
The Ohio Oil & Gas Association (OOGA) held its annual meeting in March at the Hilton in Columbus, OH. While MDN was not there, an industry friend sent along a copy of the slide deck used by the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management. The ODNR’s “regulatory update” addressed a number of interesting issues, including the state’s ongoing application for “primacy” in permitting carbon dioxide injection wells, permitting and unitization (forced pooling), updates on rule changes for drilling and fracking, and several “top 5” lists for natural gas and oil producers in the Utica Shale.
It doesn’t happen often, but every once in a while, academic researchers do real, actual, in-the-field research, as opposed to running computer simulations. Such an act of real research was just published in the journal Science last Thursday. A research group led by Carbon Mapper, with researchers from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Arizona State University, University of Arizona, Scientific Aviation, and the Environmental Protection Agency used advanced aircraft to conduct the largest direct measurement-based survey of active municipal solid waste landfills to date from 2018 through 2022, looking for fugitive methane emissions. They found that 52% of surveyed landfills had “observable point source emissions” (i.e, they are super-emitters), as compared with a 0.2% to 1% detection rate observed for super-emitters from surveyed oil and gas infrastructure in California and the Permian Basin.
Oil production in the Ohio Utica hit a record 27.8 million barrels in 2023, up 41% from 2022, according to researchers at the Levin College of Public Affairs and Education at Cleveland State University. In December, eastern Ohio oil wells pumped 93,000 barrels of crude, up one-third from December 2022, according to federal data. Oil has been locked away in the Utica/Point Pleasant shale layer for millennia. Aubrey McClendon, co-founder and former CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was the first to see the vision of freeing oil from the Utica. However, it was a successor company, Encino Energy, that figured out how to coax large quantities of oil out of the Utica shale.
According to the data geeks at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. natural gas production grew by 4% in 2023, which was similar to the growth in 2022. U.S. gas production in 2023 averaged a whopping 125.0 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day). In 2023, more natural gas was produced in the Appalachia (Marcellus/Utica) region of the Northeast than in any other U.S. region, accounting for 29%, or 37.7 Bcf/d, of gross natural gas production. However, production growth in Appalachia slowed because our region doesn’t have enough pipeline takeaway capacity to transport more natural gas out of the region to the markets that would buy it.
According to Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association’s (TIPRO) latest State of Energy report, the U.S. oil and gas industry directly employed 2.04 million workers in 2023. That’s a net increase of 56,373 direct jobs compared to 2022. According to the report, the oil and gas industry paid a national average wage of $79,427 in 2023. Workers in Crude Oil Extraction earned the highest annual average wage of all oil and gas industry sectors at $220,863. Want a great job? Work in the O&G industry!
Thanks to abundant, clean Marcellus shale gas, Pennsylvania remained the country’s top electricity exporter in 2023 while simultaneously reaching a new low for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation, according to the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) latest analysis. Yes, you read that right. PA is producing more electricity than ever, yet CO2 emissions from electric generation are lower than ever. How can that be?
The latest monthly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for March, issued yesterday (below), shows EIA believes shale gas production across the seven major plays tracked in the monthly DPR for April will decrease production from the prior month of March. This is the ninth month in a row that EIA has predicted shale gas production will decrease for the combined seven plays. However, it won’t decrease everywhere. Gas-focused plays like the Marcellus/Utica and the Haynesville will see the biggest drop in production. In contrast, the oily Permian play will boost the production of “associated” natural gas — the gas that comes out of the ground along with oil. The Permian is also boosting oil production in April.
Bayou City Energy (BCE), an E&P-focused private equity firm, yesterday published a VERY INTERESTING white paper titled “Natural Gas Producers: Why Don’t You Stay?” (full copy below). The thesis of the white paper (or report) is that drillers in gas-focused plays can’t produce natural gas as cheaply as oil producers who produce gas as a side benefit (called associated gas). Therefore, gas-focused drillers need to drastically, immediately change their capital allocation strategies (spend less on new drilling, for now). The author also makes the case that gas-focused drillers should look for opportunities to merge with a “liquids-rich producer.”
Yesterday, the American Gas Association (AGA) unveiled a new study, “Advancing America’s Pharmaceuticals: The Value of Natural Gas to U.S. Pharmaceutical Manufacturing” (full copy below). Natural gas and other petrochemicals are irreplaceable for manufacturing medicines, with 99% of pharmaceutical feedstocks and reagents derived from natural gas and other petrochemicals. Face masks, disposable gloves, and syringes are also manufactured from petrochemical feedstocks like natural gas and are critical to combatting the spread of disease. Without natural gas, we would all live short, brutish lives. Billions would die.