July STEO Predicts U.S. Natgas Output Declines, Demand Rises 2024

Once a month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Starting last month, the EIA axed its monthly Drilling Productivity Report that focused on shale plays and instead rolled it into the monthly STEO (see Biden EIA Dumps Detailed Monthly U.S. Shale Drilling Report). We’re still grumbling about the change. So, what did yesterday’s July 2024 STEO show? On a macro level, the EIA predicts U.S. natural gas production will decline in 2024 while demand will rise to a record high.
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For donkey’s years, BP (British Petroleum) published its annual Statistical Review of World Energy — since 1952. Last year BP said it would no longer publish it and instead turn it over to a Big Green advocacy group known as The Energy Institute (EI) to publish (see
Not even the Bidenistas who have taken over at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) can cover up and hide the fact that the United States runs on fossil energy. An EIA post from last week chronicling the changes in energy use and sources since 1776 reveals that in 2023, some 82.5% of all energy used in our country came from oil, natural gas, and coal (fossil fuels), while just 2.3% came from so-called renewables solar and wind. Yet mainstream media keeps feeding the population the false narrative that solar and wind are taking over and about to replace fossil energy as our primary fuel source. IT’S A LIE!
The U.S. national oil and gas rig count had been in a pattern of free-falling for over a month. Last week, the national combined Baker Hughes oil and gas rig count finally reversed course and added four rigs — now at 585. The Marcellus/Utica stayed the same last week, for the fifth week in a row, with a combined 36 active rigs. Pennsylvania continued to operate 21 rigs. Ohio remained steady with ten active rigs. And West Virginia kept five active rigs.
The U.S. national oil and gas rig count has been in a pattern of free-falling for the past month. Last week, the national combined Baker Hughes oil and gas rig count dropped by another seven to 581, the lowest since December 2021. It’s gone from free-falling to a bloodbath. The Marcellus/Utica stayed the same last week, for the fourth week in a row, with a combined 36 active rigs. Pennsylvania continued to operate 21 rigs. Ohio remained steady with ten active rigs. And West Virginia kept five active rigs.
Pennsylvania’s Democrat Party is hellbent on driving the Marcellus Shale industry out of the state. They have been for years. That’s just a truthful observation and beyond dispute. One year ago, the Dems in the PA House passed a resolution by a single vote that directs the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee (LBFC) to “study” Pennsylvania’s revenue from the oil and gas industry, comparing it with the top five states for natural gas production in the U.S. (see
On Wednesday, the International Gas Union (IGU) released its 15th annual 2024 World LNG Report, the world’s most comprehensive public source of information on key developments and trends in the LNG sector (full copy below). According to the report, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has a newfound but fragile equilibrium. The global LNG trade reached a record level of 401.42 million metric tons in 2023, growing by 2.1% or 8.4 million tons from the previous year. However, the pace of growth decreased last year over the previous year. Why? Not enough LNG supply to meet worldwide demand.

MDN told you the bottom had dropped out of the rig count two weeks ago (see
Natural gas development in the Marcellus/Utica continues to get cleaner year after year. Updated data shows our region’s natgas producers reduced methane intensity by nearly 17% in a single year. That’s according to a report co-authored by the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), an anti-fossil fuel organization. The CATF and Ceres (an anti-capitalist organization) recently released its fourth annual 2024 Benchmarking Methane and Other Greenhouse Gas Emissions report.
The grid operator overseeing New York State is warning that the Democrats’ green energy agenda is pushing the grid toward blackouts. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), which oversees and manages the state’s power grid, published its 2024 Power Trends report last week, assessing the outlook for energy supply and demand in the region over the next several years. The report warns that the electrification agenda pursued by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and her fellow Democrats is pushing the state’s grid toward conditions for blackouts as soon as this summer.
Yesterday, MDN told you that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has decided not to produce its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), a report that delves into the latest numbers for each of the seven major shale plays in the U.S. (see 
It is the sad end of an era brought about by the Bidenistas at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). For years, since the very first Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) issued by the EIA, MDN has brought you the monthly DPR, a report that delves into the latest numbers for each of the seven major shale plays in the U.S. The monthly DPR reported estimates of production for each play each month, along with DUC (drilled but uncompleted well) counts and other vital statistics. But, no more. We checked the