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Sept. STEO Predicts NatGas Price to Stay Down Near $2 This Fall
Once a month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Starting in June, the EIA axed its monthly Drilling Productivity Report that focused on shale plays and instead rolled it into the monthly STEO (see Biden EIA Dumps Detailed Monthly U.S. Shale Drilling Report). We’re still grumbling about the change. So, what did the September 2024 STEO, issued yesterday, show? The EIA has lowered its estimation of the average price of natural gas for both this year and next. Read More “Sept. STEO Predicts NatGas Price to Stay Down Near $2 This Fall”
A very big story is unfolding in the Marcellus/Utica, and nobody else is talking about it. There is a major reshuffling of rigs in the M-U, with Pennsylvania losing active rigs and West Virginia picking them up. Two weeks ago, PA dropped from 21 to 18 active rigs, the lowest count it has had in 2 1/2 years (see 
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028, from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 to an astonishing 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028! That is, if all the projects currently under construction begin operations as planned. However, that increase includes not just exports from the U.S. but also from Canada and Mexico. Yes, somehow, magically, countries like Canada and Mexico, where Big Green thought it held an iron grip, will soon begin to export LNG (some of it U.S. molecules).
The International Gas Union (IGU), Snam, and Rystad Energy partnered (as they have in the past) to produce and release the Global Gas Report 2024 (full copy below). The authors are sounding the alarm. According to the study, should gas demand continue to grow as it has in the last four years without additional production development, a 22% global natural gas supply shortfall is expected by 2030. If demand continues to strengthen, the shortfall will be even more pronounced. There is, say the authors, an urgent need to scale up investments. NOW. 
PJM Interconnection is the largest U.S. power grid operator, serving 65 million people in 13 states plus the District of Columbia (including PA, OH, and WV). PJM supplies power to more than 20% of the U.S. economy. Most of the states in PJM are not energy self-sufficient. They don’t produce enough electricity to meet their own demand. Pennsylvania is the exception and has become THE main producer in the PJM region, exporting electricity to its neighbors. However, according to a chilling new report by Pittsburgh Works Together (PWT), PA Gov. Josh Shapiro’s electricity proposals will destabilize the PJM grid and potentially cause massive blackouts. 
We spotted an article on the always-excellent NGI website (the 
We continue to be range-bound with respect to the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count. The count has gone up and down every few weeks. But since the third week of June, the range has been as low as 581 and as high as 589. And that’s it. We seem to have found the bottom (we hope we have). Last week, the national rig count lost another rig and now stands at 585. The Marcellus/Utica remained even at 35 active rigs after losing one rig two weeks ago. Pennsylvania operates 21 active rigs; Ohio operates nine active rigs; and West Virginia operates five active rigs.
With all of the hoopla at yesterday’s ribbon cutting in Morgantown, WV, for the new Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2) headquarters, we thought it appropriate to share a couple of studies analyzing whether and how existing natural gas infrastructure (pipelines) and appliances (furnaces and stoves) can use the hydrogen that will get produced by ARCH2. Three weeks ago, we noticed a study published by U.K. utility company National Gas that announced results from an experiment it had conducted that showed its pipeline system could be converted to flow 100% pure hydrogen, which was a shocker for us. Then, last week, a U.S. study was published, largely led by members of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), that reports the opposite — using existing natgas pipelines to flow 100% pure hydrogen is “mostly unusable” and won’t work. Which study is right? Because they both can’t be right.
A study led by Binghamton University and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) claims it has uncovered that energy companies pressure landowners into allowing hydraulic fracturing (fracking) on their properties, “often resorting to persistent and personalized tactics.” In other words, those nasty frackers bully poor landowners into signing leases. We have no doubt there are landmen who twist arms a little too tightly, but this study has a few flaws in our humble opinion. 
Powerhouse consulting and accounting firm Ernst & Young (EY) has just published its annual study, “US Oil and Gas Reserves, Production and ESG Benchmarking Study” (full copy below). The EY study reveals an industry with “remarkable resilience and financial performance” despite facing a challenging economic landscape in 2023. The study, which examines the 50 largest publicly traded exploration and production (E&P) companies, highlights the industry’s ability to navigate price fluctuations and maintain a trajectory of growth and profitability. 
America’s natural gas and oil industry announced “a landmark partnership” in late 2017 called The Environmental Partnership to “accelerate improvements to environmental performance in operations across the country” for lowering methane emissions (see