EIA Says Natural Gas Supply and Demand Coming Into Balance
As we’ve discussed many times before, the price for natural gas (especially the NYMEX futures price) is primarily determined by supply and demand — Economics 101. When there is too much supply with the same or less demand, prices go down. And boy, have they gone down! The problem we’ve struggled with all this year is too much supply. A number of drillers (many in the Marcellus/Utica) have pulled back on production to take some of the supply off the table. A good measure of supply is the inventory or storage number. Natural gas is stored during the “summer” season for use later during the “winter” season. As we began the injection “summer” season earlier this year, natgas inventories were 39% above the five-year average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts inventories will have dropped to 6% above the five-year average by the end of October.
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The U.S. national oil and gas rig count lost ground last week it had gained the week before. The national combined Baker Hughes oil and gas rig count now stands at 586 rigs, down three from 589 two weeks ago. The Marcellus/Utica lost one rig last week. Pennsylvania lost a rig and now operates 20 active rigs. Ohio operated 11 active rigs. West Virginia remained the same with five active rigs. The M-U is operating a combined 36 rigs. The M-U’s primary competitor, the Haynesville, was down one rig from two weeks ago and now operates 34 rigs.
As you may have noticed, a number of our posts today are stories about gas-fired power plants, which are vitally important (very big) customers for shale gas. According to an analysis by Reuters, natural gas use by power generators has expanded by around 3.5% a year over the past three years and is by far the largest single source of gas used in the U.S. However, natural gas consumption by the other major sectors, including industry, households, and commercial, is falling each year. The fall in usage by industry, etc., is more than the growth in powergen.
The U.S. national oil and gas rig regained more of its lost ground last week by adding three more rigs back to active status. The national combined Baker Hughes oil and gas rig count now stands at 589 rigs. The Marcellus/Utica remained even last week. Pennsylvania continued to operate 21 rigs. Ohio operated 11 active rigs (after adding a rig two weeks ago). West Virginia remained the same with five active rigs. The M-U’s primary competitor, the Haynesville, remained static with 36 active rigs — one less than the M-U’s 37 rigs.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), injections into natural gas storage so far this injection season (April 1–October 31) is 15% (166 Bcf) *less* than the previous five-year average (2019–23) for the same period. Injections into storage are also 15% (172 Bcf) less than this same time last year. Yet working natural gas inventories in the Lower 48 states are 17% *higher* than the five-year average and 8% higher than this time last year. How can that be?
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average monthly wholesale spot (not futures, but spot) natural gas price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub fell by 20% to $2.56 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) between January and June of this year. In January, the Henry Hub price averaged $3.18/MMBtu, then dropped to $1.49/MMBtu in March, marking the lowest average monthly inflation-adjusted price since at least 1997. In addition, prices from February through April 2024 were the lowest ever recorded for those months.
Operators and investors are more concerned than ever about the remaining inventory of drillable locations. Who has it? Where is it? Will it be economic? The North American inventory rankings by shale play are always of interest. Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, recently issued a report that ranks the plays by the number of economic-to-drill locations each play has left. Unfortunately, Marcellus Shale play is on the list of “losers” in this latest report. Why? A huge jump in Bidenflation — rig day rates were up 25% year-over-year in September in the Marcellus, compared to about 15% across the other plays. Also a factor is dropping productivity in the Marcellus (“productivity degradation”), particularly in northeast PA.
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade increased 3.1% globally in 2023 to an average of 52.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), an increase of 1.6 Bcf/d from 2022, according to a recently released report from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL). Expanded export and import capacity and increasing natural gas demand drove the growth in the global LNG trade last year.
No, we’re not talking about transitioning from male to female and female to male, a mental disorder that’s celebrated in popular culture these days. We’re talking about the “other” transitioning — from using fossil fuels to…using nothing, because without fossil fuels, you get nothing when it comes to energy. The left pretends solar and wind energy can power the world, and it’s coming any day now. Except, as we pointed out yesterday, 81.5% of all energy used throughout the world in 2023 came from fossil fuels (see 
For donkey’s years, BP (British Petroleum) published its annual Statistical Review of World Energy — since 1952. Last year BP said it would no longer publish it and instead turn it over to a Big Green advocacy group known as The Energy Institute (EI) to publish (see 
Not even the Bidenistas who have taken over at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) can cover up and hide the fact that the United States runs on fossil energy. An EIA post from last week chronicling the changes in energy use and sources since 1776 reveals that in 2023, some 82.5% of all energy used in our country came from oil, natural gas, and coal (fossil fuels), while just 2.3% came from so-called renewables solar and wind. Yet mainstream media keeps feeding the population the false narrative that solar and wind are taking over and about to replace fossil energy as our primary fuel source. IT’S A LIE!