NGSA Predicts Colder Winter Coming, Increase in NatGas Price
Colder weather and increased demand will place slight upward pressure on natural gas prices compared to last winter, the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) said last Thursday in its 24th annual Winter Outlook forecast of the wholesale winter natural gas market. NGSA also projected higher-than-average storage, record production and supply, and modest GDP growth this winter. The NGSA Outlook shows we’re heading into a cooler winter well-prepared with record production and storage. Bottom line: A slight uptick in the price of natgas this winter because it will be colder, but we have plenty of gas on hand. Read More “NGSA Predicts Colder Winter Coming, Increase in NatGas Price”
Two days ago, MDN told you about a Congressional investigation looking into the Department of Energy’s use of a prematurely released “study” as an excuse to “pause” (i.e., ban) new LNG export approvals (see 
Pennsylvania General Energy (PGE) wants to install a tiny 3.7-mile gathering pipeline in Lycoming County, PA, to connect several PGE wells to the Transco pipeline system, along with two 8-inch water pipelines of about the same length (see 
Three weeks ago, MDN told you about a developing story of rig realignment in the Marcellus/Utica (see 
In a statement issued last week, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) said it “remains concerned about maintaining sufficient natural gas supplies to address extreme winter conditions” for this upcoming winter heating season. In a “Statement on Criticality of Natural Gas this Winter” (full copy below), NERC noted that next month marks the one-year anniversary of the FERC/NERC/Regional Entity staff report on Winter Storm Elliott—a wide-area extreme cold event that affected states in the Eastern Interconnection from Georgia to Maine and from Nebraska to Pennsylvania. The primary cause of that almost-outage was, says NERC and the report, reduced production (freezeoffs) at Marcellus/Utica wells. 
Net-zero energy policies in the Pacific Northwest will produce staggering (“crippling”) costs to individuals and businesses without providing any meaningful environmental benefits, warns a monumental new research report from Discovery Institute’s Reasonable Energy program. “The effects on your monthly electric bill are going to absolutely devastating,” says economist and report author, Jonathan Lesser. “The average person is going to see their electric bill balloon 450% by 2050. Small business owners won’t escape, they’ll see their bills going from an average of $600 a month today to almost $4,000 in the next 25 years.” 
Hidden in last Friday’s weekly Baker Hughes official rig count is a big story happening in the Marcellus/Utica. From the 30,000-foot level, Friday’s latest rig count report appeared just fine. The national rig count, which counts all oil and gas rigs, added an astonishing eight rigs to the count after languishing for months — the biggest weekly gain in a year. Very nice. The M-U count maintained at 33, down from a few weeks ago, but still not completely terrible. But then you open the hood and look at the engine, and something startling happens. Pennsylvania is losing rigs, bleeding rigs, like crazy—four rigs gone in the last two weeks. And West Virginia is gaining those lost rigs. Typically, there’s no one answer as to why these things happen. Our best guess is that Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), coming online from the northern panhandle of WV to southern Virginia, carrying natgas to markets outside the immediate region for higher prices, has much to do with this realignment.
The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) wants to spend some of the $214+ million it’s receiving from the federal government’s Phase 1 & 2 program to plug orphaned conventional oil and gas wells on a research project to determine the potential health impacts of living near such wells. You may recall the flawed (totally fake) “research” conducted by the University of Pittsburgh in 2023 that purported to show a connection between shale drilling and childhood cancer clusters (see 
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) released production numbers for the second quarter of 2024 yesterday. The story the numbers tell continues to be about Utica oil, which continues to rise each quarter. Ohio’s total oil production during 2Q24 was 8.01 million barrels, up 23% from 2Q23’s 6.5 million barrels and up 11% from 1Q24’s 7.2 million barrels. The story of oil in the Buckeye State can’t be told apart from Encino Energy (EAP), which produced nearly half of all the state’s oil during 2Q24. As for natural gas production, it’s no surprise it went down slightly in 2Q24, given the current low price for gas. The state produced 526.6 Bcf in 2Q24, down 3.7% from 2Q23’s 547.0 Bcf, and down 1.4% from this year’s first quarter number of 534.0 Bcf. MDN pulled the numbers from the ODNR quarterly report and produced top 25 lists for both gas and oil wells.
A very big story is unfolding in the Marcellus/Utica, and nobody else is talking about it. There is a major reshuffling of rigs in the M-U, with Pennsylvania losing active rigs and West Virginia picking them up. Two weeks ago, PA dropped from 21 to 18 active rigs, the lowest count it has had in 2 1/2 years (see 
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028, from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 to an astonishing 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028! That is, if all the projects currently under construction begin operations as planned. However, that increase includes not just exports from the U.S. but also from Canada and Mexico. Yes, somehow, magically, countries like Canada and Mexico, where Big Green thought it held an iron grip, will soon begin to export LNG (some of it U.S. molecules).