S&P 2025 Energy Outlook: Fossil Fuels Needed to Save the Day
Yesterday, the analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights, the leading independent provider of information, data, analysis, benchmark prices, and workflow solutions for the commodities and energy markets, released their 2025 energy outlook. S&P published the top 10 “key themes” from the report. Key theme #2 was this: “Total energy demand growth to outstrip clean energy supply growth.” The concomitant conclusion is that *something* has to meet that new energy demand, and since unreliable renewables can’t and won’t, fossil fuels will ride in to save the day—as they always have. Read More “S&P 2025 Energy Outlook: Fossil Fuels Needed to Save the Day”
Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported five states produced more than 70% of the record 113.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023. Two of the five were in the Marcellus/Utica: Pennsylvania (18% of the country’s gas) and West Virginia (8% of the country’s gas). We did some digging and found that when adding the production from PA, WV, and OH, the three together represented 31.5% of all the natural gas produced in the U.S. in 2023. It is an astonishing fact! 
The environmental left is hellbent on regulating fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas, out of existence. One of their favorite (false) memes is to claim methane is a bazillion times more “potent” in causing global warming than other things, like carbon dioxide. The false narrative continues that shale drilling is causing a stratospheric increase in fugitive methane leaks into Mom Earth’s atmosphere. Except….it isn’t true. According to data from the Environmental Protection Agency, methane emissions from the country’s top oil and gas-producing basins have fallen 44 percent since 2011. Methane emissions right here in the Marcellus/Utica have fallen 52% from 2019 to 2023! 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In October, the EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas would be $3.10/MMBtu in 2025 (see 
What is the Biden Department of Energy (DOE) hiding? Four times now, Republican lawmakers from Congress have asked the DOE to reveal the scientific process it is using to “evaluate” how the federal government approves LNG export requests. The Bidenistas are stonewalling and refusing to comply with the request, implying they are using less-than-rigorous standards to produce a fake report. The Bidenistas are using political science instead of real science to evaluate LNG exports. You can expect a politically motivated report when the ditsy Jennifer Granholm (DOE Secretary) finally issues the LNG report we’ve been waiting for for the past year. 
Yesterday, the Energy Workforce & Technology Council released its monthly jobs report, highlighting a rebound in employment across the U.S. energy services sector. Total jobs in the sector were reported at 655,630 for November 2024, reflecting an increase of 1,890 positions from October, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and analysis conducted by the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Overall employment in the energy sector has been higher each month compared with corresponding months last year beginning in June—an indicator that activity in oil and gas is ever-so-gradually beginning to increase again. 
The Baker Hughes national rig count dramatically increased last week, adding seven rigs for a national count of 589. Note that the national count continues to be rangebound between 581 and 589 since June (except for Sep. 13, when it hit 590 for a single week). Will we break out of the rut and go higher? Stay tuned. Meanwhile, the Ohio Utica lost one rig last week, but the Pennsylvania Marcellus picked it up, keeping the combined M-U count at 35. 
You’ve heard of UFOs—Unidentified Flying Objects. What about UOWs? That would be Undocumented Orphaned Wells. Not to be confused with undocumented illegal aliens. Researchers at the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, located in Berkeley, California, have figured out how to use artificial intelligence (AI) to scan and read old maps, recognizing oil and gas well symbols on those maps to generate potential well locations that can then be verified via satellite imagery and field surveys. This may be the first practical thing to come out of Berserkely in years! 
Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for July through September 2024 (full copy below). There were 63 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 3Q24, the same exact number as in 2Q24, but 3Q’s number was a decrease of 39 wells (-38%) compared to the third quarter of 2023. The number of new wells drilled, 63, is the lowest since 2008 (except for 2Q24, which was also 63). This was the eighth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year (YOY) decline in new wells spud. Natural gas production volume was 1,838 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 3Q24, down 33 Bcf (1.8%) from the 1,871 Bcf produced in 3Q23. 
In June, we told you that a once-respected oil and gas consultancy had become a partisan purveyor of pap (see 
The Baker Hughes national rig count dropped another rig last week and now sits at 582. The national count continues to be rangebound between 581 and 589 since June. Slicing the national count slightly differently—by oil-focused vs. gas-focused rigs—oil rigs fell by two to 477 last week, their lowest since July, while gas rigs rose by one to 100. Last week, all three Marcellus/Utica states maintained the same count for the third week in a row, with PA operating 15 active rigs and Ohio and West Virginia operating 10 rigs each, for a combined 35 rigs. That’s the third week in a row the M-U has operated 35 rigs. It feels like the doom and gloom is finally starting to lift. 
In October, MDN told you about a Congressional investigation looking into the Department of Energy’s use of a prematurely released “study” as an excuse to “pause” (i.e., ban) new LNG export approvals (see 
Some interesting research coming from Penn State (and Binghamton University). A paper recently published in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists found that companies contributing the greatest pollution and emissions were more committed to reducing pollution because they faced greater public scrutiny and risked being labeled as “greenwashers” — entities that make false claims about their environmental impact. In other words, public shaming and bullying (our words) make companies change their behavior. But there was another finding that equally intrigued us…