Shell’s LNG Outlook Predicts Worldwide LNG Demand Up 60% by 2040
Shell, which dropped “Royal Dutch” from its name after leaving The Netherlands in 2022 due to high taxes and overregulation, is one of the world’s supermajors (oil and gas driller). Shell is also one of (perhaps THE) largest producers and vendors of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, worldwide. The company has just released its ninth annual LNG Outlook 2025 (full copy below), which highlights key trends in 2024 and hauls out the crystal ball to predict where things are heading over the next 15 years. Shell predicts that global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is forecast to rise by around 60% by 2040, which is largely driven by economic growth in Asia, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport, and the impact of artificial intelligence. Read More “Shell’s LNG Outlook Predicts Worldwide LNG Demand Up 60% by 2040”

For the fourth week in a row, the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count added rigs—to the highest level since last June! Three weeks ago, the rig count gained four rigs to 586. Two weeks ago, the count regained another two rigs to 588. Last week, the count added four new rigs for 592. Note that the national count remained in a tight range of 581-589 for much of last year. We’ve just broken through. As for the Marcellus/Utica, the rig count was a combined 35 last week, adding a new rig to the mix. The new rig was added in West Virginia.
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According to a recent report from PJM Interconnection, the manager of the electric grid in all or parts of 13 states plus D.C., three electric transmission zones that are wholly or partly in Pennsylvania are expected to see sharp increases in power demand from current and new data centers in the next few years. For all three zones, PJM says the increase in demand will mostly come from existing and planned new data centers. The solution? Build more Marcellus-fired power plants to meet the demand.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA said the natural gas price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub is expected to average $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtus) in 2025—up about 23% from its January forecast ($3.10). EIA also raised its estimate for 2026, putting the annual average price at $4.20 MMBtus, up 5% compared with $4.00 in its January report.
According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. natural gas output stands near an all-time high as a period of strong demand and improved prices enable a production resurgence. Output averaged 106 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) over the latest weekend. In the Marcellus/Utica, production over the last seven days has come in at nearly 36 Bcf/d, up about 1.7 Bcf/d, or 5%, compared with the prior week. Single-day volumes at 36.3 Bcf over each of the last several days mark highs not recorded since winter 2023-2024.
Prior to last week, the Baker Hughes national rig count had been in a freefall for weeks, dropping to a 3+ year low of 576 (see
Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, issued a summary of the fourth quarter and full-year 2024 upstream M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity yesterday. Two of the top five M&A deals include deals in the Marcellus/Utica. Coming in at #3 on the list was EQT’s sale of non-operated assets to Equinor for $1.25 billion in October (see
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stopped publishing its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) last June (see
We sometimes poke fun at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predictions, accusing the analysts of using a dart board to generate the estimates they issue, especially with the future price of natural gas. But honestly, they have a tough job. Price is a complex issue with a lot of factors. Even though the EIA’s track record has sometimes been off by a lot, it remains the one source most quoted by the media and experts worldwide regarding future price predictions. In yesterday’s Today in Energy web publication, EIA says it “expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases.” Its latest forecast for the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price is that the overall average for all of 2025 natgas will average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). EIA expects that number to increase in 2026 to an average of $4.00/MMBtu. Is that realistic?
Hart Energy is reporting some startling statements from Bernstein Research in a new report. One insight (statement) offered by Bernstein is that U.S. natural gas will average $5/Mcf in 2025 and 2026, and that’s “conservative, in our view.” Bernstein predicts “a coming U.S. gas super-cycle.” The Bernstein team expects U.S. gas demand will grow from some 120 Bcf/d today to 150 Bcf/d by 2030 as new AI data centers and LNG export trains come online.