National Rig Count Gains 6 @ 582; M-U Count Steady @ 34
Prior to last week, the Baker Hughes national rig count had been in a freefall for weeks, dropping to a 3+ year low of 576 (see National Rig Count Falls Again, Lowest in 3+ Years; M-U Steady). Last week, the trend finally turned around. The national count gained six rigs to 582. The Marcellus/Utica rig count was a combined 34 last week—the same number for seven weeks in a row. PA has operated 15 rigs for the past 12 weeks, with the exception of one week, when the number briefly increased to 16 rigs. OH has operated nine rigs for the past nine weeks, and WV has operated 10 rigs for an astonishing 21 weeks in a row, going back to Sep. 13 of last year. Read More “National Rig Count Gains 6 @ 582; M-U Count Steady @ 34”

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, issued a summary of the fourth quarter and full-year 2024 upstream M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity yesterday. Two of the top five M&A deals include deals in the Marcellus/Utica. Coming in at #3 on the list was EQT’s sale of non-operated assets to Equinor for $1.25 billion in October (see
Natural gas-fired electric power generation has increased in Pennsylvania since 2013 as the state has shifted toward natural gas as its main fuel source for electric power generation. In October 2024, natural gas-fired generation accounted for 57% of the electricity generated in Pennsylvania, more than twice the share in October 2013 (26%). This is thanks to the miracle of Marcellus Shale and fracking.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stopped publishing its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) last June (see
We sometimes poke fun at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predictions, accusing the analysts of using a dart board to generate the estimates they issue, especially with the future price of natural gas. But honestly, they have a tough job. Price is a complex issue with a lot of factors. Even though the EIA’s track record has sometimes been off by a lot, it remains the one source most quoted by the media and experts worldwide regarding future price predictions. In yesterday’s Today in Energy web publication, EIA says it “expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases.” Its latest forecast for the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price is that the overall average for all of 2025 natgas will average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). EIA expects that number to increase in 2026 to an average of $4.00/MMBtu. Is that realistic?
Hart Energy is reporting some startling statements from Bernstein Research in a new report. One insight (statement) offered by Bernstein is that U.S. natural gas will average $5/Mcf in 2025 and 2026, and that’s “conservative, in our view.” Bernstein predicts “a coming U.S. gas super-cycle.” The Bernstein team expects U.S. gas demand will grow from some 120 Bcf/d today to 150 Bcf/d by 2030 as new AI data centers and LNG export trains come online.
Two days ago, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which we reported on yesterday (see
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. The EIA number crunchers are making the bold prediction that dry gas production will hit new record highs in 2024 and 2025. The EIA also predicts domestic gas consumption, which hit a record high in 2024, will hit a new record high in 2025 (although it will slip again in 2026).
Yesterday, the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) announced the completion of the NPCC Northeast Gas/Electric System Study. Initiated in 2023, the study evaluated New York and New England gas supply and gas pipeline constraints for extreme and protracted winter events during the peak heating season, from December through February, for three time periods: 2024/25 (short-term), 2027/28 (mid-term) and 2032/33 (long-term). It shows that if we get an extended (more than three-day) cold snap, those of us living in NY or New England will be in trouble.
This is an interesting pattern we’ve not seen in a long time for the venerable Baker Hughes rig count. The national rig count and the count for the Marcellus/Utica remained the same for multiple weeks in a row. The national count was 589 active rigs last week (now four weeks in a row). The M-U count was 34 last week (now three weeks in a row). The national count remains rangebound between 581 and 589 since June 2024 (except for Sep. 13, when it hit 590 for a single week). The M-U remained static last week, with PA at 15 rigs, OH at 9 rigs, and WV at 10 rigs.