National Rig Count Gains 4 @ 586; M-U Count Steady @ 34
For the second week in a row, the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count regained some of the rigs lost in prior weeks. Two weeks ago, the rig count gained six rigs (see National Rig Count Gains 6 @ 582; M-U Count Steady @ 34). Last week, the rig count gained another four rigs to 586. Note that for much of last year, the national count remained in a very tight range of 581-589. It seems like that equilibrium is returning after the recent drop below 580. As for the Marcellus/Utica, the rig count was a combined 34 last week—the same number for eight weeks in a row. It looks like we’ve hit an equilibrium here, too. Read More “National Rig Count Gains 4 @ 586; M-U Count Steady @ 34”

According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. natural gas output stands near an all-time high as a period of strong demand and improved prices enable a production resurgence. Output averaged 106 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) over the latest weekend. In the Marcellus/Utica, production over the last seven days has come in at nearly 36 Bcf/d, up about 1.7 Bcf/d, or 5%, compared with the prior week. Single-day volumes at 36.3 Bcf over each of the last several days mark highs not recorded since winter 2023-2024.
Prior to last week, the Baker Hughes national rig count had been in a freefall for weeks, dropping to a 3+ year low of 576 (see
Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, issued a summary of the fourth quarter and full-year 2024 upstream M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity yesterday. Two of the top five M&A deals include deals in the Marcellus/Utica. Coming in at #3 on the list was EQT’s sale of non-operated assets to Equinor for $1.25 billion in October (see
Natural gas-fired electric power generation has increased in Pennsylvania since 2013 as the state has shifted toward natural gas as its main fuel source for electric power generation. In October 2024, natural gas-fired generation accounted for 57% of the electricity generated in Pennsylvania, more than twice the share in October 2013 (26%). This is thanks to the miracle of Marcellus Shale and fracking.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stopped publishing its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) last June (see
We sometimes poke fun at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predictions, accusing the analysts of using a dart board to generate the estimates they issue, especially with the future price of natural gas. But honestly, they have a tough job. Price is a complex issue with a lot of factors. Even though the EIA’s track record has sometimes been off by a lot, it remains the one source most quoted by the media and experts worldwide regarding future price predictions. In yesterday’s Today in Energy web publication, EIA says it “expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases.” Its latest forecast for the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price is that the overall average for all of 2025 natgas will average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). EIA expects that number to increase in 2026 to an average of $4.00/MMBtu. Is that realistic?
Hart Energy is reporting some startling statements from Bernstein Research in a new report. One insight (statement) offered by Bernstein is that U.S. natural gas will average $5/Mcf in 2025 and 2026, and that’s “conservative, in our view.” Bernstein predicts “a coming U.S. gas super-cycle.” The Bernstein team expects U.S. gas demand will grow from some 120 Bcf/d today to 150 Bcf/d by 2030 as new AI data centers and LNG export trains come online.
Two days ago, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which we reported on yesterday (see
Yesterday, the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) announced the completion of the NPCC Northeast Gas/Electric System Study. Initiated in 2023, the study evaluated New York and New England gas supply and gas pipeline constraints for extreme and protracted winter events during the peak heating season, from December through February, for three time periods: 2024/25 (short-term), 2027/28 (mid-term) and 2032/33 (long-term). It shows that if we get an extended (more than three-day) cold snap, those of us living in NY or New England will be in trouble.
This is an interesting pattern we’ve not seen in a long time for the venerable Baker Hughes rig count. The national rig count and the count for the Marcellus/Utica remained the same for multiple weeks in a row. The national count was 589 active rigs last week (now four weeks in a row). The M-U count was 34 last week (now three weeks in a row). The national count remains rangebound between 581 and 589 since June 2024 (except for Sep. 13, when it hit 590 for a single week). The M-U remained static last week, with PA at 15 rigs, OH at 9 rigs, and WV at 10 rigs.