Nat’l Rig Count Adds 2 @ 585; Marcellus Up 1 @ 25, Utica Up 2 @ 13
The Baker Hughes U.S. national rig count recovered somewhat last week, adding two rigs after losing seven rigs two weeks ago. The U.S. count now stands at 585 active rigs. There was big news for the Marcellus/Utica. The combined M-U rig count was 38 last week. That is the highest M-U combined count in almost one year—since May of 2024. The Marcellus added the one rig it lost the prior week and now stands at 25 rigs across the three M-U states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. Rigs focused on the Utica added two, and now stands at 13 rigs. PA was a big winner, adding two rigs, now with 18 active rigs — the highest number it has had since last August. However, OH also added two rigs and now operates 12, the most active rigs in the Buckeye State in over a year. Read More “Nat’l Rig Count Adds 2 @ 585; Marcellus Up 1 @ 25, Utica Up 2 @ 13”
U.S. marketed natural gas production remained “relatively flat in 2024,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas production last year grew “by less than 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) compared with 2023 to average 113 Bcf/d,” according to EIA’s latest Natural Gas Monthly report. Translated another way, production grew around 400 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) last year. Statistically, it’s about three-tenths of one percent, which rounds to zero. Still, it GREW. It did not shrink. And that’s what should be emphasized. 
AI, artificial intelligence, has been in the news a lot lately, particularly in the Marcellus/Utica region. Most of the stories we’ve brought you deal with huge new AI data centers being built in the M-U region, requiring a big increase in electricity to power them. Most of the electricity comes from natural gas-fired power plants. But this post is not about AI data centers, it’s about how energy companies, like Encino Energy, are using AI to drill better, faster, cheaper, and smarter. It’s about how AI is helping our companies become better at what they do—extracting and flowing natural gas and oil. 
Et tu, Brute? We’ve poked fun at “peak oil” and “peak gas” quacks for years (over a decade). People like Art Berman who pronounce, on a regular basis, that we’ve finally hit peak oil (or gas) production and/or demand, and that from here on out, fossil fuels will decline. They’re wrong every single time. Yet now, none other than the number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are making their own “peak” predictions. In its latest Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2025, the EIA says we will likely see U.S. crude oil output hit a peak of 14 million barrels per day by 2027. Natural gas has a longer fuse, hitting a high of 43.44 trillion cubic feet per annum in 2032. 
It seems our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), was populated by a lot of swamp creatures. Multiple sources are whispering to Reuters that 100 or more of the agency’s 350 employees (somewhere between 25% and 40%) either already have or soon will leave their jobs at the agency. They have opted to accept President Trump’s offer to government workers to leave with generous benefits now or risk being fired later. Reuters, which is typically an unbiased news source (one of the few), is throwing shade that important reports produced by EIA will no longer be produced, given the lack of manpower. 
This is shameful. A Pennsylvania government agency, the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), has aligned itself with an extreme leftwing organization to attack the PJM Interconnection electric grid in a bid to paper over the failed policies of PA Governor Josh Shapiro. In particular, so-called “Acting” Secretary of the DEP, Jessica Shirley, has proven she is no longer fit to lead the agency. The PA Senate should refuse to confirm her and bounce her out immediately. Shirley aligned herself with the radical left-wing organization called Evergreen Action to promote a sham/fake “report” by a well-known Democrat organization called Synapse Energy Economics (that works exclusively for left-wing groups) attacking PJM with false claims that it has a “broken” electric generation project approval process. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA boosted its estimates for the Henry Hub price. The agency now expects the HH price to average $4.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, ten cents higher than last month’s forecast. EIA expects the annual average price in 2026 will be $4.60/MMBtu, also ten cents higher than last month’s forecast. The basis for the rise in the price forecast is lower storage levels. Inventories of stored gas are 4% below the five-year average. 
Electricity demand in the United States will increase 2% annually and 50% by 2050, according to a new study conducted by PA Consulting and released by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA). That is massive! For the past 20 years, the U.S.’s electricity generation and use have remained virtually unchanged. This new study shows a year-by-year increase in electricity demand for the next 25 years. The study indicates unreliable solar and wind are not up to the task of providing the increase. Instead, NEMA advocates for an all-of-the-above approach to energy production, including natural gas, small modular reactors, and geothermal. 
The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is America’s largest nonpartisan, voluntary membership organization of state legislators dedicated to limited government, free markets, and federalism. Comprised of nearly one-quarter of the country’s state legislators and stakeholders from across the policy spectrum, ALEC members represent more than 60 million Americans and provide jobs to more than 30 million people in the United States. Even though Pennsylvania is a natural gas haven, Pennsylvania ranks only 32nd in energy affordability according to ALEC’s recently-released Energy Affordability 2025 report (full copy below). ALEC says PA’s existing policies under Gov. Josh Shapiro, meant to wean the state off fossil fuels, have made affordability WORSE. 
Two weeks ago, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) staff issued the agency’s annual State of the Markets report for 2024 (full copy below) to provide the industry and public with key information on market conditions and emerging issues in natural gas and electricity markets as well as significant market trends and fundamentals for the year. According to FERC Chairman Mark Christie, “The combination of rapidly increasing electricity demand, driven by hyperscale customers such as data centers, paired with the alarming rate of base load generation retirements and lack of new dispatchable generation, is not sustainable and must be addressed.” FERC is sounding the alarm that more dispatchable (i.e., natural gas) power generation is urgently needed. 
The experts at RBN Energy track 38 exploration and production (E&P) companies to monitor financial and operational performance. In a recent blog post, RBN found the 10 gas-weighted E&Ps (all but one with significant operations in the Marcellus/Utica) experienced a rebound in earnings during Q4 2024 after a rough first three quarters of the year. Earnings for the 10 gas-weighted E&Ps averaged $3.02/boe (barrels of oil equivalent) in Q4 2024 after losses in Q2 and Q3 2024. Cash flow averaged $10.18/boe, 52% higher than the $6.71/boe generated in Q3 2024. Realized prices averaged nearly $18/boe in Q4 2024, 24% higher than the $14.52/boe recorded in Q3 2024. Things are looking up for M-U drillers. 
The Baker Hughes U.S. national rig count lost one rig last week (after gaining one the week before), now operating 592 active rigs. As for the Marcellus/Utica, the rig count was a combined 35 last week. However, there was a notable change in the totals. Rigs focused on the Marcellus were down by one to a combined 23 across the three M-U states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. Rigs focused on the Utica picked up the lost Marcellus rig, now at a combined 12. PA had operated 15 rigs (or more) for 19 weeks straight. That streak was broken last week when PA lost a rig. OH had operated nine rigs for 16 weeks in a row but picked up one last week and now stands at ten active rigs. WV had operated 10 rigs for an astonishing 23 weeks in a row. Six weeks ago, WV added (and has kept) one additional rig and operates 11 active rigs.