April STEO Predicts U.S. NatGas Supply, Demand Hit New Highs in ’25
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA boosted its estimates for the Henry Hub price. The agency now expects the HH price to average $4.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, ten cents higher than last month’s forecast. EIA expects the annual average price in 2026 will be $4.60/MMBtu, also ten cents higher than last month’s forecast. The basis for the rise in the price forecast is lower storage levels. Inventories of stored gas are 4% below the five-year average. Read More “April STEO Predicts U.S. NatGas Supply, Demand Hit New Highs in ’25”
Electricity demand in the United States will increase 2% annually and 50% by 2050, according to a new study conducted by PA Consulting and released by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA). That is massive! For the past 20 years, the U.S.’s electricity generation and use have remained virtually unchanged. This new study shows a year-by-year increase in electricity demand for the next 25 years. The study indicates unreliable solar and wind are not up to the task of providing the increase. Instead, NEMA advocates for an all-of-the-above approach to energy production, including natural gas, small modular reactors, and geothermal. 
The Baker Hughes U.S. national rig count lost two rigs last week and now operates 590 active rigs. As for the Marcellus/Utica, the rig count was a combined 36 last week—the highest it has been since last August! Rigs focused on the Marcellus were up by two to a combined 25 across the three M-U states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. Rigs focused on the Utica dropped one rig (after increasing by one the week before), now at a combined 11. PA had operated 15 rigs (or more) for 19 weeks straight. That streak was broken two weeks ago when PA lost a rig. PA picked it back up again and had 15 active rigs last week. OH had operated nine rigs for 16 weeks in a row but picked up one two weeks ago and kept it, meaning the dropped Utica rig from last week was in either PA or WV. Likely, the rig was repurposed from Utica to Marcellus in PA. OH currently operates ten active rigs. WV had operated 10 rigs for an astonishing 23 weeks in a row. Seven weeks ago, WV added (and has kept) one additional rig and continues to operate 11 active rigs. 
The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is America’s largest nonpartisan, voluntary membership organization of state legislators dedicated to limited government, free markets, and federalism. Comprised of nearly one-quarter of the country’s state legislators and stakeholders from across the policy spectrum, ALEC members represent more than 60 million Americans and provide jobs to more than 30 million people in the United States. Even though Pennsylvania is a natural gas haven, Pennsylvania ranks only 32nd in energy affordability according to ALEC’s recently-released Energy Affordability 2025 report (full copy below). ALEC says PA’s existing policies under Gov. Josh Shapiro, meant to wean the state off fossil fuels, have made affordability WORSE. 
Two weeks ago, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) staff issued the agency’s annual State of the Markets report for 2024 (full copy below) to provide the industry and public with key information on market conditions and emerging issues in natural gas and electricity markets as well as significant market trends and fundamentals for the year. According to FERC Chairman Mark Christie, “The combination of rapidly increasing electricity demand, driven by hyperscale customers such as data centers, paired with the alarming rate of base load generation retirements and lack of new dispatchable generation, is not sustainable and must be addressed.” FERC is sounding the alarm that more dispatchable (i.e., natural gas) power generation is urgently needed. 
The experts at RBN Energy track 38 exploration and production (E&P) companies to monitor financial and operational performance. In a recent blog post, RBN found the 10 gas-weighted E&Ps (all but one with significant operations in the Marcellus/Utica) experienced a rebound in earnings during Q4 2024 after a rough first three quarters of the year. Earnings for the 10 gas-weighted E&Ps averaged $3.02/boe (barrels of oil equivalent) in Q4 2024 after losses in Q2 and Q3 2024. Cash flow averaged $10.18/boe, 52% higher than the $6.71/boe generated in Q3 2024. Realized prices averaged nearly $18/boe in Q4 2024, 24% higher than the $14.52/boe recorded in Q3 2024. Things are looking up for M-U drillers. 
The Baker Hughes U.S. national rig count lost one rig last week (after gaining one the week before), now operating 592 active rigs. As for the Marcellus/Utica, the rig count was a combined 35 last week. However, there was a notable change in the totals. Rigs focused on the Marcellus were down by one to a combined 23 across the three M-U states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. Rigs focused on the Utica picked up the lost Marcellus rig, now at a combined 12. PA had operated 15 rigs (or more) for 19 weeks straight. That streak was broken last week when PA lost a rig. OH had operated nine rigs for 16 weeks in a row but picked up one last week and now stands at ten active rigs. WV had operated 10 rigs for an astonishing 23 weeks in a row. Six weeks ago, WV added (and has kept) one additional rig and operates 11 active rigs. 
Two researchers from Miami University of Ohio have just published a new study (full copy below) that makes a bombshell revelation: Between the years of 2007 and 2019, the extraction and use of shale natural gas led to a REDUCTION in so-called greenhouse gases of 7.5% in the United States. Although the authors are careful to wrap their findings in the argument that natural gas is “just a transition that’s helping us reach renewable nirvana” (our words, their sentiment), we have to wonder if this study has just tanked the researchers’ academic careers. Nobody goes against the global warming orthodoxy with actual science that questions that orthodoxy and (academically) lives to tell about it. Poor sods. 
You have to hand it to the environment-left; they sure are creative. How do they think these things up? Penn State researchers, committed to the religion of eliminating fossil fuels and the 100% adoption of unreliable renewables, are looking for a way to use old/depleted oil and gas wells—of which there are hundreds of thousands in PA (an estimated 3.9 million nationwide). The latest Penn State research proposes blowing compressed air down old wells and storing it underground where the earth’s heat will warm it, further compressing it (giving it an extra 9.5% of “efficiency”). And when electricity is needed, let the air escape, running big power turbines. Just one teeny, tiny problem: It costs so much that nobody will do it. 
An explosive expose appearing on the Daily Caller website confirms rumors from last year that the Biden Department of Energy “intentionally buried” a final draft version of a study that would have undermined its January 2024 decision to pause approvals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. Last October, we brought you the rumor that a study had been circulated at DOE that shows LNG is NOT bad for the environment and was subsequently covered up (see 
J.P. Morgan recently issued its 15th annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper. It’s mysteriously titled Heliocentrism. Heliocentrism is the astronomical model in which the Earth and planets orbit the Sun, the center of the solar system, proposed by Copernicus in the 16th century. Heliocentrism replaced geocentrism, the earlier belief that Earth was the stationary center of the universe, with the Sun, planets, and stars revolving around it. You could be burned at the stake for not believing in geocentrism once upon a time. J.P. Morgan’s report uses the metaphor of heliocentrism. In the report, the “sun” is fossil fuel energy, and the planets that orbit it are renewable energy like solar and wind. Leftists believe the opposite.