NERC/FERC Caution New England, Central US May Experience Blackouts
Last week, two different quasi-governmental agencies, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), issued summer assessments for whether or not the country could experience problems with having enough electric power for this summer. Both assessments conclude the same thing: IF we don’t have any extreme weather events, and if unreliable renewable sources like solar and wind don’t crap out for an extended period, we’ll be fine. However, if we do have a hot spell or solar/wind fail, we’re in trouble. In particular, New England and the central part of the country from top to bottom are at most risk. However, even the PJM area could experience some problems. Read More “NERC/FERC Caution New England, Central US May Experience Blackouts”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook last week, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price. The agency expects the HH price to average $4.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.20 lower than last month’s forecast. However, EIA expects the annual average price in 2026 to be $4.80/MMBtu, which is $0.20 higher than last month’s forecast. EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average $4.20/MMBtu during the third quarter of 2025. 
We’re catching up on two weeks of changes in the rig count, and wow! Things changed. And NOT in a good way. The national count lost nine rigs over the past two weeks, going from 587 on April 25 to 584 on May 2 and then down to 578 on May 9. But it was the Marcellus/Utica that caught our attention. Two weeks ago, for the May 2 Baker Hughes rig count, Ohio dropped three rigs in a single week, going from 12 on April 25 to nine on May 2. The Ohio count remained at nine on May 9. Consequently, the combined M-U count went from 38 two weeks ago to 35 and has remained at that level. Both Pennsylvania and West Virginia kept their same counts of 18 and 8, respectively. 
Isn’t it shameful how major Ivy League universities, like Cornell, Harvard, and now Dartmouth, sell out to the radicalized left? They offer up (sell) their prestigious names to be plastered on blatantly fake research studies that bash fossil energy. In a new study published in Nature, researchers from Dartmouth College have compromised their integrity, arguing that “attribution science” – the attempt to link a specific amount of greenhouse gas emissions to a particular energy company – should be used. The “researchers” advocate using attribution science not to develop a better understanding of the world, but as a blunt tool in the courtroom to bankrupt the very companies that provide the energy that powers this world. It’s completely insane. 
Every three years, the Pennsylvania Dept of Environmental Protection (DEP) is required, by state law, to produce an update to the state’s so-called Climate Action Plan. The fact that they have such a plan boggles the mind—a plan to address global warming (the operative word being “global”) from one state. To be fair, many states and even large cities also have such plans. These plans are all arrogant nonsense. No entity, especially not a single state, can do a darned thing to affect the temperature of Mom Earth, but they pretend they can. And they use the existence of such plans as a manipulative political tool to force policy changes that inflict significant economic harm on their citizens, all in the name of saving the planet. The wackadoodle left has brainwashed our children into believing we’ll die if we don’t give up fossil fuel use. The DEP recently released its triennial “dump fossil fuels” update, and it’s as crazy as ever. 
The research continues to roll in that deeply blue Democrat states that insist on forcing their citizens to convert to so-called green energy are driving them out of those states. Last week, we brought you an analysis of counties along the Pennsylvania/New York border, on either side (see 
U.S. marketed natural gas production remained “relatively flat in 2024,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas production last year grew “by less than 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) compared with 2023 to average 113 Bcf/d,” according to EIA’s latest Natural Gas Monthly report. Translated another way, production grew around 400 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) last year. Statistically, it’s about three-tenths of one percent, which rounds to zero. Still, it GREW. It did not shrink. And that’s what should be emphasized. 
AI, artificial intelligence, has been in the news a lot lately, particularly in the Marcellus/Utica region. Most of the stories we’ve brought you deal with huge new AI data centers being built in the M-U region, requiring a big increase in electricity to power them. Most of the electricity comes from natural gas-fired power plants. But this post is not about AI data centers, it’s about how energy companies, like Encino Energy, are using AI to drill better, faster, cheaper, and smarter. It’s about how AI is helping our companies become better at what they do—extracting and flowing natural gas and oil. 
Et tu, Brute? We’ve poked fun at “peak oil” and “peak gas” quacks for years (over a decade). People like Art Berman who pronounce, on a regular basis, that we’ve finally hit peak oil (or gas) production and/or demand, and that from here on out, fossil fuels will decline. They’re wrong every single time. Yet now, none other than the number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are making their own “peak” predictions. In its latest Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2025, the EIA says we will likely see U.S. crude oil output hit a peak of 14 million barrels per day by 2027. Natural gas has a longer fuse, hitting a high of 43.44 trillion cubic feet per annum in 2032. 
It seems our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), was populated by a lot of swamp creatures. Multiple sources are whispering to Reuters that 100 or more of the agency’s 350 employees (somewhere between 25% and 40%) either already have or soon will leave their jobs at the agency. They have opted to accept President Trump’s offer to government workers to leave with generous benefits now or risk being fired later. Reuters, which is typically an unbiased news source (one of the few), is throwing shade that important reports produced by EIA will no longer be produced, given the lack of manpower. 