BCG Study: 5 Possible Futures & Strategies for U.S. NatGas
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) published a study yesterday that is intriguing (and useful). The study is called “Strategies to Ride the Surge in US Natural Gas” (copy below). It begins with understanding three trends that have driven the growth of natural gas production over the past 10 years: (1) the change from coal- to gas-fired power; (2) the rise of LNG exports; (3) commercial demand in the U.S. for natural gas soared by 28% from 2010 to 2024. Operating from those three trends/facts, BCG postulates that the natural gas industry could face any one of five futures, which they outline along with strategies for adapting to those scenarios. Read More “BCG Study: 5 Possible Futures & Strategies for U.S. NatGas”
Last week, the rig count bleeding stopped, at least temporarily, with the addition of one rig to the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count. We ended the week with 537 active rigs. The count has been down 16 of the last 19 weeks, beginning on May 2. Fortunately, the Marcellus/Utica count has remained constant for the past seven weeks, at a combined 36 active rigs. PA operated 18 active rigs. OH ran 11 rigs. And WV operated 7 rigs. Twenty-four rigs targeted the Marcellus and 12 rigs targeted the Utica last week. Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by two to 414 last week, while gas rigs fell by one to 118. 
Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for April through June 2025 (full copy below). There were 105 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 2Q25, a huge increase of 42 wells (+67%) compared to 2Q24. Natural gas production volume was 1,954 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2Q25, up 162 Bcf (+9%) from 1,792 Bcf produced in 2Q24. The average Pennsylvania spot hub price was $2.38, an increase of $0.90 (+61%) from the prior year. All in all, it was a great second quarter for the PA Marcellus. 
Two weeks ago, the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count resumed a downward trend, which continued last week. The count lost another two rigs to end the week at 536. The count has been down (bleeding) 16 of the last 18 weeks. Fortunately, the Marcellus/Utica count has remained constant for the past six weeks, at a combined 36 active rigs. PA operated 18 active rigs. OH ran 11 rigs. And WV operated 7 rigs. Twenty-four rigs targeted the Marcellus and 12 rigs targeted the Utica last week. The overall downward trend in the national count is due to a slowdown in oil-focused drilling, although last week’s figures reversed this trend. Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by one to 412 last week, while gas rigs fell by three to 119. 
EY, previously known as Ernst & Young, is a multinational professional services network (i.e., consulting firm) based in London. EY is also one of the “big four” largest accounting firms in the world. EY published a new study last week titled “US Oil and Gas Reserves, Production and ESG Benchmarking Study” (full copy below). The study found that due to mergers and acquisitions in 2024, the largest publicly traded oil and gas companies in the U.S. went from 50 down to 40, and that those 40 companies produced a staggering 41% of all O&G production in this country. It’s probably no surprise that many in the list produce natural gas (and oil) in the Marcellus/Utica. 
Last week, the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count halted its downward trend, maintaining the same overall number of rigs as the week before: 539 active rigs nationwide. The count has been down (bleeding) 14 of the last 16 weeks. Has the bleeding now stopped? We hope so. The Marcellus/Utica count remained the same for the past four weeks at a combined 36 active rigs. PA operates 18 active rigs. OH is running 11 rigs. And WV is operating 7 rigs. Twenty-four rigs targeted the Marcellus and 12 rigs targeted the Utica last week. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will head in the next 12 months. We joke about the predictions coming from a dartboard, given their seemingly random ups and downs. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025, again. The agency expects the HH price to average $3.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast. EIA also dropped its 2026 forecast, now believing the gas price will average $4.30/MMBtu, down $0.10 from last month’s $4.40 (and WAY down from the estimate two months ago of $4.90 next year). 
Earlier today, Reuters published a great article titled “Key US natural gas trends to track as LNG exports hit new highs.” The article is full of terrific charts (and narrative) showing where our LNG is currently going (by country), along with where it has gone historically (by country). The article reveals that over the first 8 months of 2025, total U.S. LNG exports climbed by 22% or by 12.4 million tons from the same months in 2024 to a record 69 million tons. Europe accounted for over two-thirds of U.S. export volumes, followed by Asia. The top three markets were the Netherlands, France, and Spain, which together accounted for 28% of total U.S. LNG shipments so far this year. 
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States set multiple records for energy production and exports in 2024. Of the record 103 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of total primary energy production in the United States, a record 31 quads went to other countries. Who knew?! In 2024, the U.S. exported 55% of its domestic crude oil and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production either directly as crude oil or as processed petroleum products such as propane, distillate fuel oil, and motor gasoline. 
In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Today in Energy online publication, the EIA lays out the case that more Marcellus/Utica molecules will help supply Gulf Coast LNG export facilities in the future. The EIA says the economics of producing more gas in the Appalachian Basin are more favorable. It’s just cheaper to produce natural gas in the M-U. The EIA’s models show that natural gas is and will transit through the Eastern Midwest region on the way to the Gulf Coast. Pipelines will carry our molecules over (to the Midwest) and then down (to the Gulf Coast). It’s a beautiful thing!