M-U Pipeline Expansion Scenarios Could Reshape U.S. Gas Market
Powerhouse consulting firm McKinsey & Co. has released a new report titled, “The infrastructure imperative: Who benefits from pipeline expansion?” The report digs into some of the key considerations, upsides, and challenges of pipeline expansion for consumers, operators, and beyond. In the report, McKinsey analysts model two hypothetical infrastructure development plans for the Appalachian Basin—northward pipeline expansion and southward pipeline expansion—and compare them to a baseline scenario. The report finds a southward expansion could potentially reduce costs to consumers by $4-5 billion from 2025 to 2030 vs. reducing costs by $2-3 billion with a northward expansion. Read More “M-U Pipeline Expansion Scenarios Could Reshape U.S. Gas Market”
Last week, the Baker Hughes U.S. national rig count gained rigs again after dropping rigs in the prior week. The national count added two rigs, going from 546 to 548. The BH rig count has added rigs in three of the last four weeks. Rigs in the Marcellus/Utica remained the same last week at a combined 37, the same number for six weeks in a row. Pennsylvania remained unchanged at 17 active rigs (six weeks in a row). Ohio was the same at 13 rigs (seven weeks in a row). And West Virginia maintained its 7 rigs, which it has operated since May 30 (24 weeks in a row). There were 23 rigs targeting the Marcellus and 14 targeting the Utica. 
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a carbon tax scheme. The RGGI tax is supposed to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by gas- and coal-fired power generators. The intent is to force fossil fuel power generators out of business. That’s what RGGI is designed to do, all in the name of reducing CO2. However, the only thing it accomplishes is to drive electricity prices higher. A new study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (full copy below) finds that every state that belongs to RGGI has higher electricity prices than Pennsylvania. And each of those RGGI states saw their prices jump more over the past five years than the national average. 
The U.S. oil and natural gas sector operates on a drilling treadmill. As production from existing wells rapidly declines—a trend exacerbated by the faster decline rates of prolific horizontal (shale) wells—operators are forced to drill new wells to maintain current output. Since 2010, however, new hydrocarbon production in the Lower 48 states has been robust enough to not only offset these significant losses but also increase overall production levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration published a post yesterday explaining the shale drilling “treadmill” we find ourselves on. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will head in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025, again, as it has for months. The agency expects the HH spot price to average $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast (and $0.30 below the prediction from three months ago). EIA also dropped its 2026 forecast, quite radically, lowering it by $0.40 to $3.90/MMBtu. Hence, our suspicion that sometimes the data crunchers haul out the breakroom dartboard to help with forecasts. 
Carrie Crumpton, Vice President of Environmental Strategy, presented on behalf of CNX Resources at the recent 2025 Shale Insight Conference. Carrie provided an overview and update on CNX’s 
Although we’re seeing an increase in both natural gas demand and production, combining these factors with relatively normal winter weather, economic indicators and natural gas storage levels, the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) is projecting “flat” pressure on natural gas prices compared to last winter, according to the NGSA’s annual Winter Outlook forecast of the wholesale winter natural gas market (full copy below). The NGSA 2025-2026 Winter Outlook, a forecast of the wholesale winter natural gas market, compared the upcoming winter to the winter of 2024-2025 when the average Henry Hub price of natural gas was $3.76 per MMBtu. “Winter” is defined as the period from November through March, the industry’s traditional winter heating season. 
A new report from big energy data analytics firm Enverus finds that the average breakeven price for new shale wells in the United States currently sits at $70 per barrel. That’s a problem, because the sale price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has been firmly in the $60s for months. U.S. shale drillers can’t drill new wells if they lose money. Consequently, they’re beginning to lay down the rigs and stop new drilling. But here’s the even more troubling part of the report: Enverus predicts the breakeven price will rise to around $95 per barrel within ten years. 
The mighty BP (formerly British Petroleum) is an oil and natural gas company attempting to transition into a renewable energy company. They’re failing. BP is having an identity crisis. It’s a European company and has bought into the false narrative that fossil energy is on the way out (“transitioning” to so-called renewables) due to concerns over mythical global warming. BP’s recently published Annual Energy Outlook for 2025 report (full copy below) takes a different approach from previous versions of the report. It offers two scenarios: What will happen between now and 2050 if we don’t change anything, called “Current Trajectory,” which means humans will turn Earth into a burning hell; and what will happen if the world finally gets serious about mythical global warming and commits to ensuring temperatures don’t rise more than 2 degrees Celsius, called “Below 2°.”