Power Demand for Data Centers Grows 30+ GW Next 5 Yrs, Mostly in M-U
There have been a number of new reports recently released predicting how new AI data center projects will affect (a) demand for electric power, and (b) demand for natural gas to generate that power. We spotted what at first glance appears to be contradictory predictions in two new reports issued this week. On Monday, BloombergNEF (the research arm of Bloomberg) issued a report predicting data center power demand will hit 106 gigawatts (GW) by 2035, a 36% jump from its previous outlook. Two days later, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, issued a report that predicts 30 GW of new U.S. data center capacity will be needed over the next five years (by 2030)—significantly below the 50 GW forecasted by major grid operators. One report is wildly optimistic, the other pessimistic. What gives? Read More “Power Demand for Data Centers Grows 30+ GW Next 5 Yrs, Mostly in M-U”
Last week, the Baker Hughes U.S. national rig count got wacked good, losing 10 rigs from the previous week. The national count went from 554 to 544 (as of Wednesday, when BH reported the numbers). Bummer. It had gained rigs for each of the prior three weeks. Rigs in the Marcellus/Utica remained the same last week after gaining one rig the week before. Pennsylvania has held at 18 for two weeks in a row. Ohio was the same at 13 rigs, which it has operated since September 26. West Virginia maintained its 7 rigs, which it has operated since May 30. There were 24 rigs targeting the Marcellus and 14 targeting the Utica, for a combined 38 rigs in the M-U. 
Last week, the Baker Hughes U.S. national rig count gained rigs for the third week in a row. The national count increased by five rigs, rising from 549 to 554. The BH rig count has added rigs in five of the last six weeks. Rigs in the Marcellus/Utica gained a rig! Pennsylvania gained one Marcellus rig, bringing its total to 18. Ohio was the same at 13 rigs. And West Virginia maintained its 7 rigs, which it has operated since May 30 (26 weeks in a row). There were 24 rigs targeting the Marcellus and 14 targeting the Utica, for a combined 38 rigs in the M-U. 
The American Energy + AI Initiative, a collaboration between the Hamm Institute and the American Energy + AI Coalition, held a summit on Monday in Washington, D.C., to address the urgent need for firm power to sustain the rapid growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the U.S. Cabinet officials, including DOE Secretary Chris Wright, and industry leaders, discussed concrete steps to modernize federal tools and accelerate power production. During the summit, a new study was released (full copy below) emphasizing that America’s ability to lead in AI depends on quickly building reliable energy and highlighted the immediate need for more natural gas to meet the massive, unexpected demand from data centers. 
The average number of active oil and natural gas rigs in the U.S. Lower 48 dropped sharply from 750 in late 2022 to 517 in October 2025, driven by lower prices and efficiency improvements. Despite this 31% decline, crude oil and natural gas production reached record highs as operators focused on the most productive areas, utilizing longer lateral lengths and advanced completion techniques. The Permian and Marcellus/Utica (Appalachia) regions exemplify this, with production growing significantly even as rig counts fell by 29%. For 2026, EIA forecasts a slight decline in oil production, constrained by lower WTI prices (predicted at $51/barrel). Natural gas output, however, is expected to increase slightly, supported by rising Henry Hub prices (predicted at $4.02/MMBtu) that will encourage gas-directed drilling. 
U.S. retail natural gas prices are rising across all sectors due to higher wholesale costs, particularly the Henry Hub spot price, which is expected to increase by 58% in 2025 compared to 2024. This increase translates unevenly to consumers. Electric power plants and the industrial sector are expected to see the most significant price hikes, forecast at 37% and 21%, respectively, as their costs are more directly tied to fluctuations in wholesale prices. Residential and commercial customers, however, are expected to experience smaller increases of 4% each. This smaller impact is due to utilities adjusting their rates more gradually, and wholesale commodity costs constitute a smaller portion of the final retail bill for these sectors, which also include significant fixed charges for transportation and distribution. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best estimate of where energy prices and production will head over the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA reversed its months-long trend of lowering its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025. The agency expects the HH spot price to average $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 higher than last month’s forecast. EIA also raised its 2026 forecast by $0.10 to $4.00/MMBtu. Recent soaring HH prices appear to have influenced the official price dartboard at EIA HQ. 
Powerhouse consulting firm McKinsey & Co. has released a new report titled, “The infrastructure imperative: Who benefits from pipeline expansion?” The report digs into some of the key considerations, upsides, and challenges of pipeline expansion for consumers, operators, and beyond. In the report, McKinsey analysts model two hypothetical infrastructure development plans for the Appalachian Basin—northward pipeline expansion and southward pipeline expansion—and compare them to a baseline scenario. The report finds a southward expansion could potentially reduce costs to consumers by $4-5 billion from 2025 to 2030 vs. reducing costs by $2-3 billion with a northward expansion. 
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a carbon tax scheme. The RGGI tax is supposed to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by gas- and coal-fired power generators. The intent is to force fossil fuel power generators out of business. That’s what RGGI is designed to do, all in the name of reducing CO2. However, the only thing it accomplishes is to drive electricity prices higher. A new study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (full copy below) finds that every state that belongs to RGGI has higher electricity prices than Pennsylvania. And each of those RGGI states saw their prices jump more over the past five years than the national average. 
The U.S. oil and natural gas sector operates on a drilling treadmill. As production from existing wells rapidly declines—a trend exacerbated by the faster decline rates of prolific horizontal (shale) wells—operators are forced to drill new wells to maintain current output. Since 2010, however, new hydrocarbon production in the Lower 48 states has been robust enough to not only offset these significant losses but also increase overall production levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration published a post yesterday explaining the shale drilling “treadmill” we find ourselves on. 