Breakeven for Shale Oil is $70/Barrel Now; Report Says Going to $95
A new report from big energy data analytics firm Enverus finds that the average breakeven price for new shale wells in the United States currently sits at $70 per barrel. That’s a problem, because the sale price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has been firmly in the $60s for months. U.S. shale drillers can’t drill new wells if they lose money. Consequently, they’re beginning to lay down the rigs and stop new drilling. But here’s the even more troubling part of the report: Enverus predicts the breakeven price will rise to around $95 per barrel within ten years. Read More “Breakeven for Shale Oil is $70/Barrel Now; Report Says Going to $95”
The mighty BP (formerly British Petroleum) is an oil and natural gas company attempting to transition into a renewable energy company. They’re failing. BP is having an identity crisis. It’s a European company and has bought into the false narrative that fossil energy is on the way out (“transitioning” to so-called renewables) due to concerns over mythical global warming. BP’s recently published Annual Energy Outlook for 2025 report (full copy below) takes a different approach from previous versions of the report. It offers two scenarios: What will happen between now and 2050 if we don’t change anything, called “Current Trajectory,” which means humans will turn Earth into a burning hell; and what will happen if the world finally gets serious about mythical global warming and commits to ensuring temperatures don’t rise more than 2 degrees Celsius, called “Below 2°.” 
We continue to eek out progress with the rig report. Last week, the national rig count added three rigs after adding two the prior week and one three weeks ago. We’ve added rigs for three weeks in a row! We ended last week with 542 active rigs across the country. The Utica Shale in Ohio added one rig two weeks ago and kept it last week. The combined count was 37 for two weeks running. PA operated 18 active rigs last week. OH operated 12 rigs. And WV operated 7 rigs. Twenty-four rigs targeted the Marcellus and 13 rigs targeted the Utica last week. 
Recently, two neighboring towns in Greene County, PA, declared a Disaster Emergency related to a “frac-out” at the EQT Lumber well that happened three years ago, in July 2022 (see 
The American Exploration & Production Council (AXPC) yesterday released a new study (full copy below) analyzing the upstream oil and natural gas sector’s profound impact on the U.S. economy. The study found that upstream, onshore independent producers supported 3.1 million jobs nationally, contributed to $277 billion in labor income, and paid $129 billion in taxes — accounting for 87% of the sector’s total economic contributions in 2024. As vital contributors to America’s energy security, independents accounted for over 85% of onshore crude and condensate production and over 90% of onshore gas production from 2022 to 2024. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will head in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025, again. The agency expects the HH spot price to average $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast (and $0.20 below the prediction from two months ago). EIA kept its 2026 forecast the same, predicting the gas price will average $4.30/MMBtu. 
The International Gas Union (IGU), Snam, and Rystad Energy partnered (as they have in the past) to produce and release the annual Global Gas Report 2025 (full copy below). Natural gas demand rose globally by 78 billion cubic meters (1.9%) in 2024, reaching 4,122 billion cubic meters (bcm), and is expected to continue growing in 2025 by 71 bcm (1.7%), according to the report. Observed trends suggest global energy demand is expected to follow an upward trajectory over the next decade, especially leading up to 2030. Power consumption is expected to surge in China and India, thus driving an increase in natural gas demand, positioning Asia as the key driver of global energy demand, supported by growth in North America. 
Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for April through June 2025 (full copy below). There were 105 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 2Q25, a huge increase of 42 wells (+67%) compared to 2Q24. Natural gas production volume was 1,954 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2Q25, up 162 Bcf (+9%) from 1,792 Bcf produced in 2Q24. The average Pennsylvania spot hub price was $2.38, an increase of $0.90 (+61%) from the prior year. All in all, it was a great second quarter for the PA Marcellus. 
Two weeks ago, the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count resumed a downward trend, which continued last week. The count lost another two rigs to end the week at 536. The count has been down (bleeding) 16 of the last 18 weeks. Fortunately, the Marcellus/Utica count has remained constant for the past six weeks, at a combined 36 active rigs. PA operated 18 active rigs. OH ran 11 rigs. And WV operated 7 rigs. Twenty-four rigs targeted the Marcellus and 12 rigs targeted the Utica last week. The overall downward trend in the national count is due to a slowdown in oil-focused drilling, although last week’s figures reversed this trend. Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by one to 412 last week, while gas rigs fell by three to 119. 
EY, previously known as Ernst & Young, is a multinational professional services network (i.e., consulting firm) based in London. EY is also one of the “big four” largest accounting firms in the world. EY published a new study last week titled “US Oil and Gas Reserves, Production and ESG Benchmarking Study” (full copy below). The study found that due to mergers and acquisitions in 2024, the largest publicly traded oil and gas companies in the U.S. went from 50 down to 40, and that those 40 companies produced a staggering 41% of all O&G production in this country. It’s probably no surprise that many in the list produce natural gas (and oil) in the Marcellus/Utica.