DOE Report Predicts Blackouts Due to Previous Big Green Policies
Anyone with half a brain in the energy space has seen and predicted (for years) a coming imbalance between electricity generation and electricity demand here in the U.S. When you don’t have enough production (generation) for increasing demand, there is a temporary cushion in the way of “peaker” plants that come online to bridge the gap. However, when huge new demand suddenly emerges, such as for AI data centers, and that demand is ongoing, peakers can’t meet the demand. The result is a power outage. The policies of Lord Obama and President Autopen, in promoting wind and solar while throttling natural gas, have set us up for a disaster, with an inability to meet sudden new demand for electricity. Unreliable renewables are NOT up to the task. That is the conclusion of a new report issued by the Department of Energy (DOE) called “Report on Evaluating U.S. Grid Reliability and Security” (full copy below). Read More “DOE Report Predicts Blackouts Due to Previous Big Green Policies”
Quick! Somebody grab a tourniquet and tie it to the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count. The count has been hemorrhaging large numbers of rigs for 10 consecutive weeks. Last week (an early week with the count issued on Thursday), the U.S. rig count declined by another eight rigs to its lowest level since October 2021, ending the week at 539 active rigs. You have to go back to the dark days of the pandemic, July 2020, for the previous 10+ consecutive weeks of decline in the rig count. The Marcellus/Utica was clipped by one rig (in Pennsylvania), falling from a combined 36 to 35. 
The number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) had some time on their hands with the upcoming July 4th holiday, so they researched and wrote a post examining how U.S. energy use has changed since 1776. As it happens, the post is quite interesting! It chronicles the rise of fossil energy and how fossil fuels have dominated the modern era (leading to the highest standard of living in human history). However, it was a section on so-called renewable energy sources that caught our attention. In particular, one “renewable” has been around since the beginning of our country. That same renewable energy source today produces more energy than either wind or solar. And no, it’s not hydro. The renewable we’re talking about is burning wood. 
The number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyzed proved reserves data for 2023 (the most recent year available) and determined that proved reserves of U.S. natural gas decreased 12.6% year over year, from 691.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) to 603.6 Tcf. This was the first annual decrease in U.S. natural gas reserves since 2020. Looking at the numbers for Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, natural gas proved reserves decreased by 4% (PA), 13% (OH), and 6% (WV) from 2022 to 2023. The report shows that Marcellus gas reserves dropped 5.9% in 2023. 
The 2025 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy was published on June 26, 2025, covering full-year 2024 data on global energy and emissions statistics. Global energy supply reached an all-time high with natural gas contributing the most incremental supply additions of any single energy source in 2024. Nearly 87% of global energy consumption was accounted for by fossil fuels (much of it gasoline and diesel for vehicles). The natural gas share of the global energy supply is 25%. Natural gas accounted for 33% of the incremental increase in global energy supplies in 2024, the largest share of any fuel source. So much for the renewables-are-taking-over fairy tale. Fossil fuels remain king of the energy market.
It’s bloody. It’s brutal. Last week, for the ninth consecutive week, the Baker Hughes U.S. rig count declined (by seven rigs) to its lowest level since October 2021, ending the week at 547 active rigs. The national rig count continues in a free fall. For the fifth week in a row, the Marcellus/Utica count remained the same, at a combined 36 active rigs. The Pennsylvania Marcellus operated 18 rigs. The Ohio Utica operated 11 rigs. And West Virginia operated seven rigs. So, at least there’s some good news with respect to the M-U. 
How much longer will gullible Americans continue to believe the FICTION that somehow solar and wind are taking over electricity generation and displacing natural gas and other fossil energy sources? How much longer before we DEMAND that crooked mainstream media come clean and tell the truth? The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that electricity demand in the Eastern United States surged during the heat wave last week, reaching multi-year highs. ISO-NE, the grid covering New England, hit peak load last Tuesday. On Tuesday, 47% of ISO-NE’s electricity generation came from natural gas, 12% from electric imports (Canada), 13% from nuclear, 12% from petroleum, 1% from coal, and 4% from renewable sources, including wind, batteries, and solar. Yes, just 4% of electricity came from so-called renewables, while burning oil (petroleum) produced 12% of the region’s electricity, keeping the lights from going out. 
The Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is out with an initial estimate for how much money will be raised and distributed from the 2025 impact fee assessment. The IFO projects that impact fee revenue will increase by $70 million in 2025 compared to the revenue collected in 2024. IFO predicts revenues will hit around $235 million. The impact fee is PA’s version of a severance tax. The impact fee generated $164.6 million in 2024 and $179.6 million in 2023. 
The United States continued to produce more energy than it consumed in 2024. This surplus energy production helped energy exports grow to a record high 30.9 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) in 2024, up 4% from 2023. Energy imports remained flat at 21.7 quads in 2024, indicating that the United States exported 9.3 quads more energy than it imported, the highest net exports in the records of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which date back to 1949. Thanks to the miracle of shale energy! 
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) recently released production numbers for the first quarter of 2025. The top natural gas producer in the state, by far, was Ascent Resources, with 195,139,574 Mcf (or 195.14 Bcf) of production during the quarter, which works out to an average of 2.17 Bcf/d. Ascent’s production accounted for 40% of the state’s natural gas production. The top oil producer in the state, by far, was Encino Energy, with 5,360,199 barrels of oil during the quarter, which works out to an average of 59,557 barrels per day. Encino’s oil production was 49% (nearly half!) of Ohio’s entire oil production during 1Q25. Of course, Encino’s days as a standalone producer are numbered as EOG Resources is buying the company. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA once again dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025. The agency expects the HH price to average $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast (and $0.30 less than the forecast from two months ago). However, EIA expects the annual average price in 2026 to be $4.90/MMBtu, which is $0.10 higher than last month’s forecast and $0.30 higher than the forecast from two months ago. An interesting dichotomy—that prices will trend lower this year but higher next year. 
Banks remain confident in long-term energy fundamentals despite significant trade policy turbulence, according to the Spring 2025 Haynes Boone Energy Bank Price Deck Survey (full copy below). The survey, now in its 12th edition, is a leading source of information for energy lenders and producers, providing crucial details on commodity price expectations. Based on internal data from 28 banks, the latest survey indicates that while oil and gas prices have fluctuated in the short term, long-term forecasts remain consistent with past projections, suggesting that banks view recent economic changes as temporary. Banks expect natural gas prices to stay strong, in the $3.50-$3.75/MMBtu range through 2026, due to high LNG export demand and growing energy needs from artificial intelligence infrastructure. 
Here’s a third natural gas price prediction, from Morningstar DBRS, a top company that gives independent credit ratings and opinions for businesses, governments, banks, and financial projects worldwide. Earlier this week, Morningstar published a commentary/report called: “Summer Heat Likely to Add to High LNG Export Demand, Tightening the North American Gas Market” (full copy below). In the report, Morningstar analysts write that they expect the North American natural gas supply and demand balance to tighten from summer heat-driven peak electricity demand and expanding LNG exports, supporting higher bids for spot gas prices. Analysts believe the average price for natural gas will hit $3.50/MMBtu both in 2025 and in 2026.