5 Trends Poised to Have Biggest Impact on Energy Sector in 2024
Veteran equity oil and gas analyst Jeff Robertson, managing director with Water Tower Research (WTR), recently compiled an outlook report with the 5 trends he says are poised to have the biggest impact on the energy sector next year. WTR was kind enough to share it with MDN. One of Robertson’s predictions involves a Henry Hub price prediction (which immediately caught our eye). Other predictions involve world tensions, the consolidation trend, and more. It’s a short and enlightening read.
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Another dead cat bounce in the rig count (i.e., the slight bounce a dead cat makes when it hits the ground). The “dead” rig count hit a new low two weeks ago (see 
It’s sad to see a major university like the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) publish fake research to fit a political narrative that fracking can be tied to cancer in kids (see 
For more than a decade, MDN has brought you stories about shale development on and under land controlled by the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD), an agency formed in 1933 to help control flooding and promote water conservation in the Muskingum River watershed area of Ohio, an area that covers 8,000 square miles (
Yesterday, MDN brought you the news that the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) is sounding the alarm that more than half of the U.S. and parts of Canada, home to around 180 million people, could fall short of electricity during extreme cold again this winter (see 
A new study from the Texas Public Policy Foundation finds that the actual hidden costs of fueling an electric vehicle, which some allege equates to $1.21 per gallon of gas, is more like $17 per gallon — all things considered. In a new paper recently published called “Overcharged Expectations: Unmasking the True Costs of Electric Vehicles” (full copy below), the study’s authors argue that while the direct cost of “fueling up” to an EV owner may appear low, the real costs and considerations add up to be significantly more. The wheels are beginning to fall off EV cars.
The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) is sounding the alarm that more than half of the U.S. and parts of Canada, home to around 180 million people, could fall short of electricity during extreme cold again this winter. Why? If you read certain leftwing publications, they will say we’re heading for blackouts due to an overreliance on natural gas. According to NERC and its just-released 2023–2024 Winter Reliability Assessment, the coming outages are because we don’t rely ENOUGH on natural gas! That’s right. NERC (and FERC) say we need more pipelines and natural gas to shore up a lack of supplies during the worst cold snaps. The lack of natural gas leads to a lack of fuel for electric power plants (and for people who use it to heat their homes). Both agencies, but NERC in particular, say we need more pipelines, and we need them NOW.
The U.S. rig count fell again last week, dropping another two rigs to 616 active rigs — the lowest rig total this year and the lowest count since February 2022. The count in the Marcellus/Utica stayed the same at a collective 40 active rigs. However, the M-U mix changed once again. Pennsylvania lost another rig, going from 20 to 19 last week, after dropping two rigs the week before (see 
Long-time MDN readers will know what “associated gas” is — natural gas that comes out of the same hole that oil comes from. When shale oil drillers sink a hole with the intent to get oil (one hydrocarbon), natural gas (another hydrocarbon) comes out, too. Even more hydrocarbons may also come out, including ethane, propane, and butane (NGLs). It’s natural! It happens. The “problem” for oil drillers has been what to do with “associated” natgas, which is considered a waste product for an oil driller. With new regulations adopted in recent years in places like Texas, New Mexico, and North Dakota (big oil drilling states), drillers increasingly cannot flare (or burn off) the natural gas coming out of the borehole along with the oil. It creates too many CO2 molecules floating in the atmosphere, toasting Mom Earth (as the myth goes).
The U.S. rig count changed course again last week, dropping rigs after adding rigs (albeit anemically) for the prior three weeks in a row. The national rig count lost seven rigs last week — dropping to 618 active rigs — not only the lowest rig total this year but the lowest count since February 2022. The count in the Marcellus/Utica gained one rig and now stands at 40 active rigs. However, the mix changed. PA lost two rigs, going from 22 to 20 last week. Ohio picked them up, going from 10 to 12 active rigs. And WV picked up one rig after losing it the week before. WV now stands at 8 active rigs.
The Argonne National Laboratory, a U.S. Dept. of Energy lab, has tested the efficacy of blending hydrogen with natural gas in existing pipelines. Argonne found blending hydrogen with natgas lowers emissions due to hydrogen production and end-use combustion. However, injecting hydrogen into pipelines leads to higher transmission and distribution emissions and greater energy demand in compressor stations, wiping out the upstream and downstream benefits. In Argonne’s modeling, blending 30% hydrogen (by volume) into gas pipelines yielded a modest 6% decrease in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions — but hydrogen blending at that level doubles leakage from transmission lines.
The Baker Hughes rig count has crashed this year compared to last year’s numbers. A few months ago, we began to chronicle the weekly rig count to keep track of this alarming situation (which we post about every Monday). U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts have taken notice of the crashing rig count and asked themselves: Why? It may seem obvious, but EIA points out in a new post on its Today in Energy website that the crash in the natural gas rig count directly correlates to the crash in the price of natural gas.
A few weeks ago, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its annual International Energy Outlook for 2023. The last time we highlighted this report was in 2021. At that time the EIA (even though controlled by the Bidenistas) predicted that by 2050 the world’s energy supplies will still mostly come from fossil fuels — some 70% from fossil energy, to be exact (see