EIA Oct DPR: Big Drop in Shale Gas Production in M-U & Haynesville
The latest monthly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for October, issued yesterday (below), shows EIA believes shale gas production across the seven major plays tracked in the monthly DPR for November will *decrease* production from the prior month of October — by a huge quantity. This is the fourth month in a row EIA predicts shale gas production will decrease for the combined seven plays. EIA says combined natgas production will slide by 451 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day) — nearly half a billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The Marcellus/Utica, called “Appalachia” in the report, is predicted to decrease by a massive 194 MMcf/d in November compared with October, the biggest decrease in gas production for any of the seven plays.
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The U.S. rig count actually rose last week, adding a piddly four rigs to 622 active rigs (regaining the four it lost the week before). We remain near the lowest point since February 2022. The count in the Marcellus/Utica, after falling by one three weeks ago and holding steady two weeks ago, gained one rig (in Pennsylvania) and now stands at 39 active rigs. The national rig count is down 147, or 19%, below this time last year. We’d classify it as limping along, but we’re happy to see this slight reversal.
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month, the report predicted new all-time highs for natural gas production in 2023 (see 
Norwegian company DNV operates as a quality assurance and risk management company. It offers supply chain, data management, technical assurance, software, and advisory services. DNV recently published its annual Energy Transition Outlook 2023 (copy below). DNV’s predictions are somewhat shocking. The company is a global warming Kool-Aid drinker, believing we’ll all toast if we don’t “transition” away from burning fossil energy by 2050. Yet DNV’s report shows that it thinks by 2050, the world will still generate roughly half of all energy used from fossil energy. Today, roughly 80% of all energy comes from fossil energy. The CEO of DNV says this about so-called renewable energy: “Globally, the energy transition has not started, if, by transition, we mean that clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms.” The report says the so-called energy transition from fossil energy to renewables is “still at the starting blocks.” Sobering honesty from a leftist source.
The U.S. rig count dropped again last week, for the third week in a row. The count shed another four active rigs, now down to 619 — the lowest point since February 2022. The count in the Marcellus/Utica, after falling by one two weeks ago, held steady last week at 38, which is the lowest it has been since the beginning of this year. The national rig count is down 143, or 19%, below this time last year. There’s no indicator the trend will reverse anytime soon.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasters are predicting a sharp drop in natural gas demand in the power sector in the coming decades based on an expectation that unreliable renewables will add tremendous new capacity build-out and will accelerate and displace other sources. However, EIA’s forecasts over the past decade have “consistently and severely” underestimated gas burn for power. The sharp analysts at RBN Energy have done a deep dive into the pitfalls of forecasting gas consumption in a world often focused on pushing a renewables-heavy generation stack.
Although we have a companion story from today’s lineup that criticizes the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for its powers to predict the future (see EIA Consistently Underestimates NatGas Needed for Power Generation), the EIA is unparalleled in its tracking and reporting of historical energy data. The expert number crunchers of the EIA recently turned their eyes on U.S. petroleum exports and found that these types of exports (including NGLs) set a new record high in the first half of 2023.
For years, we’ve seen the lie repeated by mainstream media, Big Green shills, and environmental lackeys that fossil energy gets big government subsidies. Let’s put that lie to bed right now. The Bidenistas, who operate the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), very quietly issued a major new report in early August that shows green energy receives FAR MORE in the way government subsidies than does fossil energy. FAR MORE.
According to a recent analysis by Enverus Intelligence Research, the cost of supply for North American shale producers is expected to continue rising. The remaining top-tier shale drilling inventory across North America *could be* in shorter supply than previously estimated, says Enverus. Rampant cost inflation from the Bidenistas and declining well productivity across the U.S. shale patch are making drilling wells much more expensive. What about the situation here in the Marcellus/Utica?
Natural gas development is fundamental to the health and strength of Pennsylvania’s economy, supporting well over 100,000 family-sustaining careers, boosting state tax revenues, and generating billions in economic benefits, according to a new economic impact analysis (full copy below) commissioned by the Marcellus Shale Coalition (MSC). The analysis, released at the kickoff of the 
According to the International Gas Union’s (IGU) 2023 Global Wholesale Gas Price Survey report (full copy below), 2022 was THE most turbulent year in the history of gas markets, as the global energy crisis intensified and the global price levels reached record highs. Last year saw record price levels, with Europe’s wholesale prices reaching over $30 per MMBtu. The average world price for natural gas reached $9.44 per MMBtu in 2022 — the highest ever — compared to a record low of $3.23 per MMBtu in 2020. Record high prices last year were seen in all regions apart from North America and the Former Soviet Union.
Two weeks ago, the U.S. rotary rig count rose nine after rising by one the week before that (see 
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is urging the EPA to delay implementation of parts of its proposed methane regulations (of oil and gas companies) because of equipment supply constraints. In a new study just released, oil and gas companies identified supply chain delays and challenges in buying the methane reduction equipment they would need to comply with EPA’s draft regulation on the timeline EPA proposed. The study finds current backorder times for methane reduction equipment components range from six months to more than two years. Implementing the proposed methane rule is expected to increase current backorder times by six months or more. Once again, the government is the problem, not the solution.
America’s natural gas and oil industry announced “a landmark partnership” in late 2017 called The Environmental Partnership to “accelerate improvements to environmental performance in operations across the country” for lowering methane emissions (see