EIA Aug DPR: Shale Gas Production to Drop Second Month in Row
The latest monthly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for August issued yesterday (below) shows the EIA believes shale gas production across the seven major plays tracked in the monthly DPR for September will *decrease* production from the prior month of August. This is the second month in a row EIA predicts shale gas production will decrease for the combined seven plays. EIA says combined natgas production will slide by 147 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day). The Marcellus/Utica, called “Appalachia” in the report, is predicted to slump by 22 MMcf/d in September compared with August.
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It’s gettin’ ugly out there. For the fifth week in a row and the 14th in the last 15 weeks, the U.S. active rig count lost rigs. Last week the number decreased by ANOTHER five rigs, after falling five rigs the week before, and five the week before that–now down to 654 active rigs across both oil and gas. Sadly, the Marcellus dropped two rigs last week for a combined M-U rig count of 43–the lowest this year. Some 15 weeks ago, the M-U lost four rigs (going from 53 down to 49). Eight weeks ago, we lost another rig, down to 48. Two weeks ago, we lost two more rigs, down to 46. Last week we lost one. And this week, two more rigs disappeared–both gone from Pennsylvania. The trend is not our friend. We wish we had better news.
In December 2020, then-Gov. Tom Wolf announced a $2.5 million contract had been awarded to the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) Graduate School of Public Health to “conduct research on the potential health effects of hydraulic fracturing in Pennsylvania” (see 
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. The latest monthly report, issued Tuesday, predicts that U.S. natural gas production AND demand will rise to record highs in 2023. EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 103 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 and 104.12 Bcf/d in 2024. The current record high is 98.13 Bcf/d set in 2022.
For the fourth week in a row and the 13th time in the last 14 weeks, the U.S. active rig count lost rigs. It’s grueling. Last week the number decreased by five rigs after falling five rigs the week before–now down to 659 active rigs across both oil and gas. The Marcellus dropped one rig (in Pennsylvania) for a combined M-U rig count of 45–the lowest this year. Some 14 weeks ago, the M-U lost four rigs (going from 53 down to 49). Seven weeks ago, we lost another rig, down to 48. Last week we lost two more down to 46, and this week another. The trend is not our friend.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a post noting the increase in the use of energy in the U.S. from 2020 to 2021. Energy usage increased by 25%, adjusted for inflation, in 2021. Why? In 2020 we were deep in the throes of lockdowns due to COVID. Nobody was going anywhere, pretty much, which significantly decreased the use of gasoline and diesel. Once the country emerged from the COVID pandemic, and people began to move around again, energy usage (petroleum products) soared.
Kimmeridge Energy, a private investment firm focused on the energy sector, yesterday published a white paper entitled, “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For.” The thesis of the Kimmeridge report is that there are still too many (and too small) drillers in the shale sector. Kimmeridge believes we need consolidation into fewer, and bigger, companies. Why? There are not enough investors to go around, according to the report. As a result, the valuation of existing too-many public companies is too low. The fix is for fewer and bigger shale drillers.
Researchers with the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) recently published a study in the journal Ecological Indicators. The study’s intent was to measure whether or not frack waste dumped in local landfills has radiation that is leaking out in groundwater (leachate) from those facilities. Research like this, if legitimate (and accurate), is a good thing. We need to know if the waste we’re dumping is causing a problem. But a funny thing happened during the study. The researchers found a big problem with recordkeeping.
PJM is the largest electric grid operator in the U.S. It serves 65 million people in 13 states plus the District of Columbia (including PA, OH, and WV). PJM came under withering criticism for an almost blackout during the Christmas cold snap last Dec. 23-25. If not for certain gas-fired peaker plants, like that in the Little Town of Bethlehem, the lights would have gone out during a brutal cold snap (see 
The latest monthly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for July issued yesterday (below) shows the EIA believes shale gas production across the seven major plays tracked in the monthly DPR for August will *decrease* production from the prior month of July. This is the first month-over-month decrease prediction for the combined seven plays since December. EIA says combined natgas production will slide by 100 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day). The Marcellus/Utica, called “Appalachia” in the report, is predicted to slump by 16 MMcf/d in August from July.
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is warning of a shortfall in electric generating capacity for New York City in 2025 when peaker plants–on-demand electric-generating plants that use fossil energy–are due to retire. Each quarter NYISO issues a short-term assessment of reliability. In April, the NYISO quarterly report warned about coming blackouts in 2025 (see 
The yo-yo behavior of the national rig count continues. Two weeks ago, the U.S. rig count broke a nine-week-straight decline by adding six rigs (see 
This one has us laughing our considerably fat rear-ends off. The left long ago corrupted science, turning it from the pursuit of objective facts into forced obedience to political opinions (i.e., global warming is caused by fossil fuels). The left issues mountains of data–graphs, tables, pictures–that supposedly prove they are correct with their opinions and theories about global warming (which they renamed “climate change”). But what’s this? Many people don’t believe all of those graphs and tables and data being pushed–they’re just too dumb to understand it. What’s the solution? Instead of using charts and graphs generated by Microsoft Excel that are so literal, have artists redraw them as “fine art” to make them look prettier. The left says, in a new study, dumb folks will fall for the pretty pictures every time.