M-U Driller Profits Bounce Back into the Black for 3Q23
It’s been a financial roller coaster for oil and gas drillers over the past 15 years. Investors in shale oil and gas companies suffered for years with little or no returns for their invested money. Five of eight large Marcellus/Utica drillers saw their share prices decrease by an astonishing 85% or more from 2008 to 2019 (see Former EQT CEO: Shale Revolution a “Disaster” for Investors). Just before the COVID pandemic hit, shale companies began to change and focus on less drilling and more profitability. That change paid off in a big way. Shale companies saw record profits in 2022 (see How Did M-U Gas Drillers Spend Their 2022 Record Haul of Cash?). But beginning in late 2022, the roller coaster took another turn down and profits crashed (see M-U Drilling Profits Hit Two-Year Low, Better Days Ahead?). But what’s this? Profits for drillers in the M-U (and other shale plays) recovered and began to climb again in the third quarter of 2023 following a five-quarter slide.
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A month ago, MDN shared the rumor that Chesapeake Energy Corporation is sniffing around Southwestern Energy, looking to buy out and merge in its closest O&G peer (see 
New shale permits issued for Nov 6 – 12 in the Marcellus/Utica slipped but still turned in a respectable number. There were 22 new permits issued last week, versus 37 issued the week before. Last week’s permit tally included 6 new permits in Pennsylvania, 16 new permits in Ohio, and no new permits in West Virginia. Hilcorp Energy was the winner of most permits issued, with 12 new permits issued for a single well pad in Columbiana County, OH.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation, the country’s third largest publicly-traded natural gas producer, issued its third quarter 2023 update yesterday. The company reports a profit of $70 million in net income during 3Q23, down from $883 million in 3Q22. The drop was due to lower gas prices and less production. Second quarter net production was 3,495 MMcfe per day (or 3.5 Bcfe/d, 97% natural gas and 3% total liquids), down 15% from 4,108 MMcfe per day in 3Q22. The company used an average of nine rigs to drill 35 wells, down from 53 in the second quarter, and placed 34 wells on production, which includes 16 wells in the South Texas Rich Eagle Ford asset (which is in the process of being sold).
In March, Chesapeake Energy announced a 15-year deal to provide natural gas for LNG exports to Gunvor Singapore Pte (see 
Oh boy, here we go again. The rumor mill is in overdrive. Reuters (which is pretty reliable with these kinds of reports) is reporting that Chesapeake Energy Corporation is sniffing around Southwestern Energy, looking to buy out and merge in its closest O&G peer. Both Chesapeake and Southwestern have significant, long-time Marcellus assets (in Pennsylvania), and both have added new assets in the Louisiana Haynesville in recent years. They are on parallel tracks with their strategy of using Marcellus assets as a cash cow to fund more drilling in Haynesville, with an eye on grabbing higher prices in foreign markets by exporting Haynesville gas as LNG. It certainly makes sense that one company would be interested in combining with the other. If the two do combine, it would become the #1 shale gas driller in the U.S., surpassing EQT (in market value).
In March, Chesapeake Energy announced a 15-year deal to provide natural gas for LNG exports to Gunvor Singapore Pte (see 
According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, large U.S. shale gas drillers (namely Marcellus/Utica drillers) have hedged (pre-sold at a specific price) an average of 50% of anticipated shale gas production for the second half of 2023. The average price of the hedges is $3.35/Mcf, far above the average NYMEX Henry Hub price that has been bumping along between $2.25 and $2.75. CNX Resources is the top hedger, hedging 80% of its production in 2H23 at $3.04/Mcf.
In August, the Executive Director of the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) approved 34 water-use permits for individual shale gas well drilling pads in Bradford, Lycoming, Sullivan, Susquehanna, and Tioga counties. We’re just learning of the action via an official notice published in the Sept. 23 edition of the Pennsylvania Bulletin. The approvals, which are NOT subject to public review according to SRBC regulations, are general water permits. Each site will be required to receive a specific water withdrawal approval at a later date.
Investors in shale oil and gas companies suffered for years with little or no returns for the money they invested. Five of eight large Marcellus/Utica drillers saw their share prices decrease by an astonishing 85% or more from 2008 to 2019 (see 