EIA Annual Energy Outlook: US is Net Energy Exporter Within 10 Yrs
The United States is already on the cusp of energy independence, thanks to the shale revolution. What does that mean? It means when you consider how much energy we produce and export, and how much we consume and import, at the end of the day, we are producing as much energy as we consume. But it gets complicated. We still import a lot of oil from the Middle East and elsewhere. We import (and export) oil via pipelines to Canada. We also still import natural gas. But at some point the U.S. will export more than it imports. That is, we won’t only produce as much as we consume, we’ll produce extra energy–and sell it abroad to other countries. We will become a “net exporter.” When will that happen? According our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), it will happen in the next 10 years–or less. The EIA has just released its “Annual Energy Outlook 2017” (full copy below). In the report the number crunchers at EIA look at multiple scenarios and conclude that under most scenarios we are a net exporter by 2026, and in some of those scenarios, it happens even sooner. That would be the first time since 1953 that our country has exported more energy than it uses. Not surprisingly, LNG (liquefied natural gas) plays a critical role in our country becoming a net exporter. Here’s what the EIA said in releasing the 2017 annual report…
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In March of this year, MDN told you that LNG Limited (from Australia) registered with the Canadian government for an environmental assessment for a pipeline they want to build in Nova Scotia–the Bear Paw Pipeline (see 
Seems like GE Oil & Gas is putting its fingers in every U.S. o&g pie it can. In October GE announced it would pursue Baker Hughes for a merger/buyout (see 
The import/export picture for natural gas into and out of the U.S. has, in recent decades, been mostly imports and not exports. With the rapid scale-up in shale drilling, the supply picture here at home radically changed. For years we’ve exported natgas to Canada and Mexico, but we’ve also imported a lot of gas from Canada (via pipeline). In the end, we’ve always imported natgas on balance–both by pipeline and by LNG carrier ships. But that all changed with the construction and operation of Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG export facility in southern Louisiana. Platts is reporting that for the first time in 60 years the U.S. will export more natural gas than it imports during the month of November. It happened for a few days in September, but in November the balance of trade has finally tipped and we are once again a net exporter of natural gas. How cool is that?! A big part of the reason why is the Marcellus/Utica…
Each month the U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy issues a report on LNG exports and imports. We check in on the report from time to time. This month’s report (with data through September) is particularly interesting. It shows the rapid scale-up of Cheniere’s Sabine Pass export facility on the coast of Louisiana. Sabine Pass is exporting U.S. shale gas, including some Marcellus/Utica gas, which is why we are interested in the LNG story. November is predicted to set a new record on the export of U.S. shale gas from Sabine. The LNG import picture, increasingly small, is also interesting and instructive. All of the LNG coming into the U.S. (via ship, not via pipeline from Canada) this year has come from one country: Trinidad. And there is a single import terminal that receives almost all incoming, non-pipeline LNG: Everett, MA (near Boston). Which is why GDF Suez, the operator, has been agitating against new pipelines to New England (shame on them)…
The Sierra Club, which may have been founded for good reasons, long ago left the realm of sanity. Sierra Clubbers, as we call them, now live in an alternative universe where clean-burning natural gas and all fossil fuels are from the devil himself. The Clubbers have tried to get multiple LNG (liquefied natural gas) export facilities blocked on the theory that if you cut off the demand you can cut off the supply (i.e. end fracking of new wells). Yeah, crazy. But that’s what they’re trying. Lately they’ve tried to attack and bully both the Dept. of Energy and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. With legions of lawyers, they file frivolous lawsuit after frivolous lawsuit, hoping if they throw enough legal (ahem) feces against the wall, some it will stick. So far it hasn’t. One of the facilities the Sierra Club continues to fight against is Cove Point LNG in Maryland. They filed an appeal of a Dept. of Energy approval to allow Cove Point to export LNG to non-free trade agreement countries–namely Japan and India. Yep, the Sierra Club doesn’t want us to help out Japan or India. They’d rather have us help Saudi Arabia and Qatar, apparently. After the appeal went nowhere, the Clubbers have no sued in the uber-liberal D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Thing is, that very same court recently handed the Sierra Club a defeat in a similar case…
We spotted what is, to us, a fascinating story about propane use across the country. There are those, like LP Gas magazine, that closely watch usage trends for propane. As you may know, propane is an NGL, or natural gas liquid. It is one of the hydrocarbons that comes out of a borehole drilled to extract either oil or natural gas. Along with oil and gas other hydrocarbons come out of the hole–NGLs like propane, ethane, butane, etc. One of the places propane is increasingly produced, and consumed, is in the northeast–because of Marcellus/Utica drilling. The sharp editors at LP Gas noticed an historically unusual trend–a spike way up in propane usage in one of the main regions tracked, in the northeast. The explanation for the spike up in usage? Propane is getting exported from the Marcus Hook refinery. Therefore much larger volumes of propane are being “consumed” by those exports. Which we find fascinating. We are producing AND consuming propane within the Marcellus/Utica region. That is, we’re generating wealth by exporting propane. We knew about ethane exports already happening at Marcus Hook (see 
As we pointed out last week, the Canadian Goldboro LNG export plant continues to see activity, with an expected commitment coming in the next couple of months (see