S&P Global Platts Analytics 2021 Annual Energy Outlook
Each year S&P Global Platts hosts its “Global Energy Outlook Forum” in New York City, an event we always look forward to attending. The Forum assembles some of the best thinkers and industry participants from across all energy sectors to discuss what happened during the previous year, and what’s on the way next year and down the road with respect to energy. All kinds of energy. This year, given COVID-19, there was no Forum. However, Platts did release its 2021 Energy Outlook yesterday.
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MDN has repeatedly read that Marcellus/Utica drillers (as well as drillers in other shale plays) must drill far less and produce far less in an effort to boost profits for shareholders. Just yesterday we published a story about M-U drillers overspending, by half a billion dollars, in 3Q20 (see 
Although in recent months a number of major Marcellus/Utica drillers have shut-in (or curtailed) some of their natural gas production, apparently those days are over. According to an analysis by S&P Global Platts, M-U gas production in December has (so far) averaged nearly 33.9 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day), making December’s month-to-date average the highest on record. In fact, on Dec. 7, two days ago, regional output in the M-U was estimated at 34 Bcf/d, less than 300 MMcf/d below its all-time, single-day record high. What’s going on?
Do political, agenda-driven “researchers” never tire of spinning false narratives around fracking? When Michael Bloomberg pays your salary (as he does for researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health), apparently not. Back in 2016, Brian Schwartz, a fellow at the Post Carbon Institute (virulent anti-fossil fuel group) was among a group of researchers who published a junk science report claiming fracking in PA gives you headaches (see 
Natural gas-fired electric generation has increased in most U.S. regions since 2015, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Annual electricity generation from natural gas power plants in the U.S. increased by 31% in the Northeast region, by 20% in the Central region, and by 17% in the South region between 2015 and 2019.
Each year East Daley Capital publishes its Midstream Guidance Outlook which looks at themes and trends affecting the midstream (pipeline) sector in the coming year. The latest version of Daley’s report has just been released and draws some interesting conclusions about the midstream in 2021. Namely, associated gas growth in the Permian and elsewhere will go down and result in rising gas demand from the Marcellus/Utica and Haynesville gas plays. The big winners will be M-U pipeline companies, including Williams, Antero Midstream, and Equitrans (EQT Midstream).
“He who controls the language controls the masses.” (Saul Alinsky) What’s the best way to mass-brainwash and influence the public against something? Change the language about the issue. Saul Alinsky in his “Rules for Radicals” knew this. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and other prominent leftists are disciples of the socialist Alinsky. Researchers at the once-great Yale University are Alinskyites too. Yale researchers recently conducted a poll of people’s attitudes toward the words “methane” and “natural gas” and found folks are much more favorable to the latter, viewing methane far more negatively. Conclusion: Force society to call it “methane” so the left can once-and-for-all destroy the “clean” reputation of natural gas and (hopefully) end all use of it.
If there’s a bad cold snap in New England this winter forcing residents to use more natural gas (leaving less natgas for power plants), blackouts may occur. That’s the prediction from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) in their just published 2020-2021 Winter Reliability Assessment (full copy below). If blackouts do occur, the residents of New England can thank Gov. Cuomo and their own politicians, like Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey, for blocking natural gas pipeline projects to the region.
Yesterday Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report–for July through September 2020 (full copy below). The report shows natgas production in PA rose 2.0% compared to the same period last year, which is the lowest increase on record since the shale revolution began. The number of new wells spud (drilled) in 3Q20 was 111, down 18% over 3Q19.
The Enverus U.S. rig count rose by 3 to 382 over the past week. Prior to that, the count rose by 20, 11, 11, and 13 for each of the four weeks prior, respectively. That’s up 58 rigs over the past five weeks! The Marcellus and Utica each remained constant last week (same as the week before), not adding and not dropping. The Marcellus stands at 27 rigs, and the Utica at 6.
The Dept. of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is actually five laboratories, including locations in Pittsburgh, PA, and Morgantown, WV. The current director is West Virginian Dr. Brian J. Anderson (great guy!). NETL recently published a notice on its website to talk about the “generational opportunity” to leverage the superabundance of natural gas in the Marcellus/Utica. NETL, says Anderson, is on the case and has a new initiative to leverage M-U gas.
