MDN Upstream Index (MUI) – Mar 10, 2023
The most recent day of active trading was Thu., Mar. 9, 2023. The numbers below reflect yesterday’s closing numbers.
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Other Stories of Interest: Fri, Mar 10, 2023
OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Opponents of Eugene natural gas ban submit 12,000-signature petition; Washington House passes ‘first in the nation’ natural gas bill; NATIONAL: Pioneer CEO says shale boom is over; Return of M&A – oil sector dealmaking heats up; INTERNATIONAL: Saudi Arabia and Russia vaunt OPEC+ ties.
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BKV IPO On Hold, M&A Deals Falling Apart Due to Low Gas Prices
CERAWeek, happening this week in Houston, Texas, is one of (perhaps THE) premier oil and gas conferences held each year. Everybody who’s anybody attends, except for yours truly. Sometimes it’s the things you (over)hear around the proverbial water cooler at such events that are more interesting than what is said from the stage or in media interviews. For example, Banpu’s BKV, with major assets in the northeast Pennsylvania Marcellus, filed plans with the Securities and Exchange Commission late last year to launch an initial public offering (see Northeast PA Marcellus Driller BKV/Banpu Files with SEC for IPO). According to whispers Reuters heard at CERAWeek, the current low commodity price of natgas has put BKV’s IPO plans on hold.
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Analyst Says if Haynesville Doesn’t Dial Back, M-U Will Suffer
Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, released its latest Macro Forecaster, a report developed for the financial services industry, yesterday. The new report is focused on the outlook for near-term oil and gas prices. Unfortunately, there wasn’t a lot of good news for the natural gas sector. According to Al Salazar, senior vice president at EIR, “Natural gas production has been resilient in 2023 in comparison to 2022, and we expect 2.9 Bcf/d of growth over the summer. Some of the growth will be offset by incremental LNG demand from Freeport LNG terminal’s restart and increased price-induced power burn growth, but natural gas prices will be under intense pressure.” Hmmm. We don’t like the sound of that.
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Big Green Not Happy with PA Gov. Shapiro’s Support for Blue H2
As we mentioned in passing in our post yesterday about Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s first budget, one of the items in his budget (and in his speech) was support for a $1 billion hydrogen hub project in the Keystone State (see Shapiro’s 1st Budget a Mixed Bag – Severance Tax Out, Carbon Tax In). All three of the potential hydrogen hub projects in which PA is involved depend on converting natural gas into hydrogen while capturing any resulting carbon dioxide and storing it–called “blue” hydrogen. Blue is not green enough for Big Green wackos who are panning Shapiro’s support for a hydrogen hub. Even though he was their candidate. Buyer’s remorse?
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Chesapeake Cuts Back on Marcellus, Signs Haynesville LNG Deal
Two weeks ago, MDN brought you a summary of the latest quarterly update from Chesapeake Energy, which includes guidance (a forecast) for what the company plans to do in 2023 vis-à-vis drilling in the Marcellus and the Haynesville (see Chesapeake Energy Update: Cutting Rig Count & Production in 2023). We told you that Chesapeake plans to scale back drilling, and production, in the Marcellus. Since that update, Chesapeake announced a 15-year deal to provide natural gas for LNG exports to Gunvor Singapore Pte. Guess where the gas will come from? Hint: Not the M-U.
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FERC Grants OK to Restart Freeport LNG Final Liquefaction Train
We have been closely tracking the restart of the shuttered Freeport LNG export terminal following its emergency shutdown in June 2022 after an explosion and fire. Most recently, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted permission for Freeport to restart two of three liquefaction “trains” at the facility (see FERC Clears Freeport LNG to Restart 2 of 3 Liquefaction Trains). Freeport asked for permission to restart everything else, including the final (of three) LNG train, the final (of three) LNG storage tanks, and a second (of two) births that allow ships to dock and load. Yesterday FERC granted permission to Freeport to restart the final train, but NOT the final storage tank nor the second ship dock.
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New England’s Only Energy Option is Expensive Foreign LNG
An anchor from a local ABC television affiliate in Maine somehow wandered into the truth about New England’s lack of natural gas pipelines. (He may not have a job much longer.) As we have been stating (screaming about) for years, New England politicians have blocked new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania from delivering critically-needed natural gas supplies to the region. It’s only a matter of time before New England experiences repeated blackouts due to the lack of natgas for power-generating plants. It’s coming. And yet the Democrat politicians who have an iron grip on the region refuse to see reason. What is their solution to a lack of natural gas? Turn down your thermostat and sit in the cold. And if you complain about it, they (meaning people like Maine Gov. Janet Mills) will label you a racist, bigot, homophobic Republican who must be silenced at all costs. This is our very broken system of governance today–at least in New England.
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CERAWeek: Granholm Woos O&G; Europe Won’t Sign LNG Deals
As we have been reporting, CERAWeek, the world’s premier energy conference, is happening all this week in Houston, Texas. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reporters filed a roundup/overview of happenings at the event. Below is the roundup from Day Three of CERAWeek, which includes comments made by the U.S. Secretary of Energy, Jennifer Granholm, attempting to suck up to the same oil and gas companies she has been bashing for the past two years. Also of interest, Europeans said during a panel discussion that European countries are reluctant to sign long-term LNG contracts because they believe (wrongly) that natgas will soon become “obsolete.” What dunderheads. No wonder Europe is crumbling and falling before our eyes.
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MDN Upstream Index (MUI) – Mar 9, 2023
The most recent day of active trading was Wed., Mar. 8, 2023. The numbers below reflect yesterday’s closing numbers.
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Other Stories of Interest: Thu, Mar 9, 2023
NATIONAL: GenH2 and Chart Industries MoU for hydrogen liquefaction; Offshore is back; INTERNATIONAL: OPEC concerned about demand slowdown in USA, Europe; EU energy chief tells companies not to sign new Russian LNG deals.
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Shapiro’s 1st Budget a Mixed Bag – Severance Tax Out, Carbon Tax In
Newly-elected Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro unveiled his first-ever budget yesterday, and it was a whopper, coming in at $44.4 BILLION. We were keeping an eye on his budget for two primary things: (1) Does it include a severance tax? (2) Does Shapiro plan to get revenue from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) carbon tax scheme? For the first, the answer is no. Thankfully, Shapiro did not lobby nor request a Marcellus-killing severance tax. Which is sure to tick off the left. However, it was a mixed bag because the budget DOES assume RGGI will kick in and provide the state with $663 million in proceeds for 2023-24. Wait, you thought Shapiro was against RGGI following his comments slamming it? Surely you’re not that dumb?
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18 PA Biz Groups Urge Shapiro, Legislature to Cooperate on Energy
Some 18 pro-business groups in Pennsylvania joined forces to send a letter to newly-elected Gov. Josh Shapiro and every member of the PA legislature. The letter, spearheaded by the PA Chamber of Business and Industry (also the Marcellus Shale Coalition and the American Petroleum Institute of PA), congratulates Shapiro and all those winning election or reelection. It was a verbal slap on the back. But the letter goes on to request all of these newly elected officials to work together to promote domestic energy production in the Keystone State. In other words, Why can’t we be friends?
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WV House Votes to Keep NatGas, Coal Electric Bills Separate
West Virginia Senate Bill (SB) 188, the Grid Stabilization and Security Act, is aimed at making WV more competitive with its neighbors–Pennsylvania and Ohio–with respect to siting more gas-fired power plants in the state. SB 188 directs the Dept. of Economic Development secretary to identify and designate sites considered appropriate for natural gas electric generation projects. It also caps the amount of time the state Air Quality Board has to hear appeals of permits for such projects to no more than 60 days. The coal lobby was not happy with some of the language and focus of the bill, so coal got its own bill, House Bill (HB) 3482, the Coal Fired Grid Stabilization and Security Act, which does the same thing for coal that SB 188 does for natural gas.
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March STEO Slashes 2023 Henry Hub by Another 11% to $3.02/MMBtu
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. We poke good-natured fun at the EIA because one month, their predictions go up, the next month, down, etc. What about the latest STEO dart board, published yesterday? EIA slashed the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub another 11% from the previous monthly report (after cutting it 30% from the preceding monthly report), saying natgas will average $3.02/MMBtu in 2023, down from a forecast of $3.40 last month, and down from $4.90 the month before.
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CERAWeek: Repsol Investing $1.5B; Souki Won’t Sell LNG to China
As we have been reporting, CERAWeek, the world’s premier energy conference, is happening all this week in Houston, Texas. MDN is not there, but there are a number of news organizations on site. One of them is Bloomberg. Yes, we know, Bloomberg tilts left. But sometimes they send reporters out who actually do real reporting, as is happening from CERAWeek. On Monday, Bloomberg filed a roundup/overview of things said at the event–both in sessions and in interviews with Bloomberg reporters. Below is the roundup from Day One of CERAWeek, which includes an interesting summary of Repsol comments that the company is investing close to $1.5 billion in 2023 in exploration and production in North America. Repsol has major operations in the Marcellus–so we can expect an expanded drilling program in Repsol’s northeastern PA assets.
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