SRBC Water Withdrawal Restrictions Hit 42 PA Oil & Gas Operators
The weather has been fantastic for those of us living in the northeastern U.S. over the past few weeks. Clear blue skies (when they aren’t clouded with wildfire smoke from Canada), really warm temperatures, and absolutely no rain to spoil outdoor activities. Here in the Binghamton, NY area, we went from a surplus of rain and swollen rivers and lakes just a month ago to a rain deficit today. Lawns and fields and beginning to turn brown. Hey, we’re not complaining! But we do need some rain. The lack of rain in the Susquehanna River Basin has triggered water withdrawal restrictions for 42 oil and gas drillers and four other large water users (46 in all) by the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC). In many cases, the SRBC order is to “cease withdrawal.”
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It’s been a wild ride for shale energy companies from the beginning of the shale revolution around 20 years ago. Here in the Marcellus/Utica, the very first Marcellus well was sunk by Range Resources in 2004. Until a few years ago, most shale drillers were not profitable, eating through investors’ money like candy. Just before the beginning of the pandemic, shale drillers got the “free cash flow” religion and began to pull back on new drilling in favor of profitability for shareholders. The pandemic, followed by Russia’s war against Ukraine, added new market gyrations. Bottom line: Last year, shale oil and gas drillers saw historic revenues and profitability. This year, the bottom is dropping out once again…
New shale permits issued for May 15-21 in the Marcellus/Utica took a substantial hit. There were only 12 new permits issued, down by more than half from the 26 new permits issued the previous week. Last week’s tally included 10 new permits for Pennsylvania, 2 new permits for Ohio, and no new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was a tie–Coterra Energy and Chesapeake Energy each received 3 new permits, with Coterra’s permits issued in Susquehanna County, PA, and Chessy’s permits in Bradford County, PA. Range Resources and Olympus Energy each received 2 new permits, and Southwestern Energy and EOG Resources each received 1 new permit.
Investors in shale oil and gas companies suffered for years with little or no returns for the money they invested. Five of eight large Marcellus/Utica drillers saw their share prices decrease by an astonishing 85% or more from 2008 to 2019 (see
This is precisely what we feared might happen and why we were against the merger of Cimarex Energy and Cabot Oil & Gas, now called Coterra Energy (see
The sharp analysts at RBN Energy have sifted through the announcements and “guidance” statements from 42 of the country’s major publicly-traded oil and natural gas drillers for 2023. Among them are 11 gas-focused drillers, nine of which have operations in the Marcellus/Utica region. Looking at the list of 11 gas-focused drillers, RBN finds production will be just about the same in 2023 as it was in 2022–projecting a dip of 1% this year. The analysis also finds collectively that the 11 gas-focused drillers will spend around 9% more on drilling this year due to Bidenflation. Spending more to produce the same–not a winning formula for a politician to run on.
Coterra Energy, the new name for the former Cabot Oil & Gas that merged with oil driller Cimarex Energy, issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2022 update yesterday. Coterra’s natgas program is focused on drilling in Susquehanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania. A couple of things stood out for us from the update. First, Coterra’s Marcellus production dropped in 2022. During 4Q21, Coterra produced an average of 2.5 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of natural gas in the Marcellus, versus producing 2.1 Bcf/d in 4Q22–down 14%. For the full year, Coterra produced an average of 2.3 Bcf/d in 2021 and 2.2 Bcf/d in 2022–down 6%.
The difference between the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) and the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is stark. The former is well-run and rational, the latter is disorganized and irrational. At least with respect to fracking. Over the weekend, the SRBC published a notice in the Pennsylvania Bulletin to announce that during the month of January, the agency approved 38 requests for daily water use on shale well pads in the SRBC’s jurisdictional territory in Pennsylvania, totaling some 233.5 million gallons. Put another way, this is a handy list of where drilling will soon happen in northeastern PA.