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The Huge Turnaround & Bright Outlook for M-U Stock Prices
What a difference three years can make! Three years ago, Henry Hub prices were hovering around $2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Stock valuations for Marcellus/Utica drillers were majorly depressed (down 80-90% from previous highs), and gas producers were struggling. Fast forward to today. Balance sheets and earnings statements are through the roof. Most experts believe $4-$5/Mcf gas is sustainable–at least for the next X years. What does the future look like for M-U drillers? What are the risks? And can we keep the current bright outlook going?
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Last week (Dec. 5-11), the number of permits issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica dropped by one to 20 from the prior week’s 21. Pennsylvania came back to life with 14 new permits. Ohio and West Virginia both issued just three new shale permits.
Yesterday MDN brought you the great news that Coterra Energy (formerly Cabot Oil & Gas) would be allowed to restart drilling in a nine-square-mile area in Dimock, PA (Susquehanna County) following a “no contest” plea deal with PA’s bullying Attorney General, Josh Shapiro, on a misdemeanor charge (see 
For all of you Paul Harvey fans (God rest his soul), this is, “The Rest of the Story.” Two weeks ago, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, about to become Governor on Jan. 1 (a bona fide tragedy), made a big splash by announcing he had finally bullied Coterra Energy, the former Cabot Oil & Gas, into taking a plea deal in the infamous Dimock, PA case of methane migration into a few water wells (see 
It appears that Williams (pipeline company) and Coterra Energy (driller), along with end-customer Dominion Energy (local gas utility) have developed their own “responsible gas” certification scheme apart from the three such schemes widely used by many Marcellus/Utica drillers currently. In an announcement yesterday, Williams said the deal struck with Coterra and Dominion establishes “the industry’s first next generation natural gas certification process across all segments of the value chain from production through gathering and transmission with deliveries through 2023.”
The partisan bully Josh Shapiro, far-left Attorney General in Pennsylvania (who is becoming Governor on Jan. 1, to PA’s shame), has claimed victory in converting what was at best an accident into a crime against Coterra Energy (née Cabot Oil & Gas). Yesterday in a courtroom in Susquehanna County, PA, Coterra plead “no contest” to a single misdemeanor charge Shapiro ginned up against the company over stray methane in a few water wells in Dimock, PA going back 14 years. It is a horrible miscarriage of justice. We wouldn’t blame Coterra if they NEVER drill another well in the state.
Expectations play a big role in investing. The financial markets do a lot of anticipating and forecasting and guessing about where a company or entire sector is heading. Such is the game being played right now with expectations for Marcellus/Utica shale gas companies and their forthcoming third quarter financial updates. Given the high price of natural gas during 3Q22, analysts expect shale gas companies to be swimming in free cash flow. The natural follow-on question is, what will they do with all of that extra cash?