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11 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jun 19-25
New shale permits issued for Jun 19-25 in the Marcellus/Utica took another nosedive. There were 11 new permits issued last week, down from 21 the previous week. There’s just no denying that the trend in permits is generally down. Last week’s permit tally included 6 new permits in Pennsylvania, 2 new permits in Ohio (both permits in the Marcellus layer!), and 3 new permits in West Virginia. Olympus Energy scored the most new permits, with 4 issued in Allegheny County, PA. Southwestern Energy had the second most new permits, with 3 permits issued in Marshall County, WV.
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For individuals, discretionary income is what’s left after you pay your taxes and fixed costs like housing, food, and clothing. For shale drillers, the equivalent to discretionary income is cash flow from operating activities (CFOA), which is the net income a company generates adjusted for non-cash expenses like depreciation and stock-based compensation, and for changes in working capital. Drillers can use their extra cash to grow production by spending more for drilling new wells (capital expenditures or capex). Or drillers can send some of the extra cash back to investors via share buybacks and dividends. How did Marcellus/Utica drillers spend their CFOA during the first quarter of 2023?
It’s possible to track which institutional investors (big investors like BlackRock) are buying or selling shares in various companies by reviewing Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 13F filings. S&P Global Market Intelligence performed a 13F review of which companies bought, and which sold (and how much) shares of stocks for shale gas drillers during the first quarter of 2023. The topmost active shale gas driller having its stock purchased by institutional investors was Comstock Resources, which drills exclusively in the Haynesville Shale. The reason Comstock came out on top, postulates S&P, is because the Haynesville is located close to the Gulf Coast and LNG export plants. However, it was the rest of the list that interested us.
An advisory note from Citi analyst Paul Diamond, picked up by the Seeking Alpha investor website, says U.S. natural gas producers are “primed for a wave of consolidation” in the medium term. Near the top of the list of potential takeover targets is, according to Diamond, Southwestern Energy, which had concentrated mainly on the Marcellus/Utica region until 2021, when it went wandering into Haynesville drilling. Who might be interested in buying Southwestern?
The weather has been fantastic for those of us living in the northeastern U.S. over the past few weeks. Clear blue skies (when they aren’t clouded with wildfire smoke from Canada), really warm temperatures, and absolutely no rain to spoil outdoor activities. Here in the Binghamton, NY area, we went from a surplus of rain and swollen rivers and lakes just a month ago to a rain deficit today. Lawns and fields and beginning to turn brown. Hey, we’re not complaining! But we do need some rain. The lack of rain in the Susquehanna River Basin has triggered water withdrawal restrictions for 42 oil and gas drillers and four other large water users (46 in all) by the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC). In many cases, the SRBC order is to “cease withdrawal.”
It’s been a wild ride for shale energy companies from the beginning of the shale revolution around 20 years ago. Here in the Marcellus/Utica, the very first Marcellus well was sunk by Range Resources in 2004. Until a few years ago, most shale drillers were not profitable, eating through investors’ money like candy. Just before the beginning of the pandemic, shale drillers got the “free cash flow” religion and began to pull back on new drilling in favor of profitability for shareholders. The pandemic, followed by Russia’s war against Ukraine, added new market gyrations. Bottom line: Last year, shale oil and gas drillers saw historic revenues and profitability. This year, the bottom is dropping out once again…
We are currently in the latest quarterly update season. In fact, we are about done with quarterly updates for the first quarter. Most (if not all) of the publicly traded Marcellus/Utica drillers have turned in their quarterly updates, as well as gas drillers from other plays (like the Haynesville). If you review the statements made by U.S. gas drillers in this latest round of updates, you’ll find the sentiment expressed that although we’re currently in the price basement for natural gas, most drillers don’t think it’s going last long. They think low prices for natgas are short-lived and that a rebound awaits us in 2024.
Southwestern Energy, with major assets in the Marcellus/Utica and Louisiana Haynesville, issued its first quarter 2023 update late last week. The company generated an impressive $1.9 billion in net income for the quarter versus losing $2.7 billion in 1Q22. That’s an incredible swing of $4.6 billion in one year! The company generated $99 million in free cash flow for the quarter. Southwestern reported total net production of 411 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent), or 4.6 Bcfe per day, including 3.9 Bcf per day of gas and 107 MBbls (thousand barrels) per day of liquids. Southwestern invested $665 million of capital and placed 36 wells online to sales, including 13 in the Marcellus/Utica and 23 in the Haynesville.